MUWX

28 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I don't think we're going to warm as much as what was forecasted.

 

Yeah, its looking that way but still a long way to go, and it could mean that we just never really cool off this evening. 

With that said, the HRRR is still 3-4 degrees too warm at soon . 

6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Meaning the current actual temp is 2-3 colder than what the HRRR shows? 

Yes, at least in the Mt. Vernon Missouri area. The current temp (11:30) at the university of Missouri extension office in Mt. Vernon is 36.3 and the 16z HRRR showed it being roughly 38 there at 11. 

The 16Z HRRR is 2-3 degrees too warm at 11:00. That's not insignificant

6 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I found one model that still looks bullish this morning.   Go RAP!

Most of the models still seem bullish to me. Especially for northwest Arkansas 

May be of significance or it may not, but we got down to 24.4 last night. Forecast low was 28

Some of the QPF totals being put out by models are insane tonight. If SGF is right, and ratios are close to 12-1…. Could get pretty crazy. 
 

Oklahoma is getting screwed because most of theirs will fall during the daylight hours, and with marginal temps, I don’t think they see efficient accumulation. 

2 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here.

For what it’s worth, KY3 already lowered amounts slightly 

8 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z NAM shifted a bit back north.

Maybe a touch colder than 12z, definitely colder than 18z. 

If we can get another nudge to the north, SWMO might be a really solid spot since most of the snow will fall at night. Even with marginal temps, I think the snow could pile up with no sun

Southern trend continues on the GFS

Pretty interesting stats 

Surprised there isn’t more talk about next week. Latest Gfs and Canadian are very similar at this range. 

Lock it in

Starting to see some very faint returns on radar. I think we’re gonna have a decent period of freezing drizzle before the snow starts. 

57 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I thought Kuchera only took into account the column temp below 500 mb? I don't think wind factors into any of the SLR equations at all. 

Still, though, I see where you're going. The wind is going to shred the dendrites and make them smaller, thus, harder to accumulate. 

I’d still heavily caution against getting your hopes but based on kuchera. The strong winds will be working hard against high ratios. Kuchera doesn’t factor that in 

Springfield extended their winter storm watch. It now includes basically everyone except the southern tier of counties. 

The icon continues to be much faster with the cold air. The 0z icon is about 3 hours faster with the cold air than the nam is. This results in a 6 am temperature difference of 21 degrees between the two models. 

21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

For what it’s worth (which may not be much) the ICON has continued to trend more in our favor over the last 5 runs.  The 18z was actually pretty solid.  

The icon moves the cold air in fast. I think that’s what needs to be watched the closest 

SGF went with a watch for their northernmost counties but only mention 2-4 inches for them. Seems pretty reasonable to me. I think most of us struggle to get to 2”. 

36 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

 

I'm not asking for 10 inches here in North Tulsa, I'd be happy with 3-4(heck 2 at the rate it's going).

Just need a 30 mile shift south. I don't feel like that's egregious to ask for at this stage of the game, still possible...

I know ratios are likely to be above 10-1, but i wouldn’t rely on the kuchera numbers either. They are notoriously overdone historically. 

6 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

What’s odd is to my unprofessional eye, the gfs diggs south and west a touch more and yet the precip shifted considerably north. Want to see the ensembles and see if this winds up being an outlier.

The low tracks way north. A low going from Nevada, mo to southern Illinois isn’t gonna produce much for most of us here. 

7 minutes ago, JoMo said:

lol. Still a lot of runs left. Congrats Minneapolis?  

Seems unlikely to me that we trend south over the next 4 days but we shall see. Most of us have been on the southern edge for a while now and that rarely turns out favorably 4-5 days out. 

It was fun while it lasted