MUWX

8 minutes ago, MUWX said:

That cell south west of Wichita looks pretty good 

And it’s basically gone. Dry line just can’t get it done today. 

That cell south west of Wichita looks pretty good 

1 hour ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Noticeable radar hole, hard to tell either way

I’m fairly confident there was a tornado, potentially multiple, but I don’t think there was anything close to warranting a tornado emergency. Very rural area, limited radar support, spotters are normally pretty unreliable. 

Storm never had a radar or velocity signature that warranted a TORE. 

Pretty disappointing up this way. Somewhere between a dusting and a half inch. 

Getting a ton of thunder and lightning right now but the precip is missing me just to the north. I can’t tell if this is awesome or incredibly frustrating. 
 

Edit: line has filled it. This is crazy. Looks like hail instead of sleet right now. 

Based on what has happened so far, and what short term models are showing for round 2, I don’t see how this event gets to a WSW level event. 

I wasnt expecting it to be this cold, this fast. I am in Carthage this morning, and my car read 25 with a heavy glaze of ice on other cars in the parking lot. 

1 hour ago, Doramo said:

I agree !        Arkansas has winter storm warning and southern Missouri doesn't even have an advisory  ?  Yet the Springfield - NWS and local forecasters discussions have said significant freezing rain up to .25 " and sleet will happen . Hmmmm?   I guess most are not buying into it . Would you all in the know  give us your take on this event? Thanks

The biggest difference between Tulsa/northern Arkansas and Springfield, is the fact that the criteria for a WSW are very different. Springfield seems most aggressive with the cold air, reducing the amount of ice, but there’s not enough precip to get them to a WSW level event. 
 

Likely won’t see warnings and advisory’s go up until mid day tomorrow. 
 

Springfield could also be playing catch up, which wouldn’t really be a surprise. 

Still have a small pile of snow in front of my house from the last storm. I doubt it survives the rain tonight, but it’s lasted longer than I expected. 

NWS SGF, located less than 10 miles from me, reported a storm total of 9.5 inches. After shoveling my driveway, my back says that’s pretty accurate. 

Pretty crazy here right now. Heavy snow, plus fairly strong winds. If we can keep these up the rest of the night, there’s going to be some crazy drifting in the morning. 

Can I trust the high res models this close to an event starting? 

We have switched to very light snow in republic. 

Heady decreased the low end amounts slightly for the southwest mo. Probably concerned about the nam being right like mentioned above. 

28 minutes ago, ouamber said:

I'm not a met on here, but I wonder which model is the best at his range? NAM, 3KNAM, HRRR, etc Anyone know?

The one that gives you the most snow. 

Pretty substantial changes on the 18z nam considering how close we are to the event. 

Well Doug heady isn’t holding back. .1-.25” ice in Missouri, and then 5-10 inches of snow on top of that. 

Saw a couple posts on twitter about how the GFS, Euro and nam are all too fast with the cold air so far. 

Icon has probably been the most consistent out of all the models. 

31 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

The current solutions are far from locked in.  Jog back SE in the next 24 hours wouldn't surprise me.  Just my opinion.   Seen this dog and pony show too many times. 

I’ve also seen it continue to trend NW right up until it starts. The trend is not good for any of us right now. 

Just now, JoMo said:

Wagons Northwest! 

Yep. If im betting, I’d say most of us get an ice storm. Long ways to go though 

Gfs is gonna a huge sleet storm for most of us 

I still think a sleet or ice storm is the most likely outcome for most of us. 

Local Springfield meteorologist, Ron Hearst, said the system has been partially sampled and that data was in tonight model run for what it’s worth.