MUWX

57 minutes ago, ouamber said:

We have NOTHING at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa! There was another donut of warm air directly over the city and it never really dipped below 34. Absolutely busted for the city of Tulsa again!  I think this is Winter Cancel for me!

Likely the result of the heat island effect. Very marginal system, where a degree or two makes all the difference

HRRR making a few people sweat tonight 

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Can you explain what they did?

As I understand it from reading their twitter replies, they were allowed to issue Winter Storm Warnings for ice rather than having to issue Ice Storm Warnings. Their Ice Storm warnings are now being used when they expect significant infrastructure (power grid) impacts, while Winter Storm Warnings are used when the ice is "only" expected to cause major travel impacts. 

Here in SWMO, I figured we would have little to no issues with the power grid because air temps were pretty borderline for the entire event so most of it would not accrete on elevated surfaces. However, due to very cold ground temps, roads were super vulnerable. However, SGF does not have the ability to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Ice, so they had to decide between the advisory and an Ice Storm Warning. Based on travel impacts, I think today absolutely should have been a Winter Storm Warning, but offices are limited by the the definitions laid out. 

I like what Tulsa did with the winter storm warning. From what I understand, not every office is allowed to do what they did because it’s in the trial phase but this absolutely should have been a WSW in SWMO. I haven’t seen travel impacts like this in a  long time. 

Portions of SWMO upgraded to an ice storm warning. 

Temps are still creeping up, but so far they have pretty substantially under performed. Something to watch as the night progresses. 

5 hours ago, JoMo said:

Ground temps are really cold due to the recent arctic air so it will probably accumulate pretty easily, but with southerly flow, it will eventually turn to just rain as there's no continued cold air advection feeding in. 

I think it’ll accumulate on roads very easily but not so much on trees or power lines. Tulsa seems to agree, which is why they are going winter storm warning instead of an ice storm warning 

Temps are going to be warm enough to keep it from accreting efficiently up here I think. Roads are a different story 

2 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Yeah 00z models appear to be coming in even drier. I am thinking this is gonna bust and they will downgrade the warnings to an advisory.

I think the NWS set themselves up for failure by going with a warning. 

HRRR is pretty ugly for all of us. 

12 minutes ago, SWineman said:

Is this storm fully sampled on shore yet? The amounts in Oregon have already surprised the Mets there. Forecasts have had to be upped several inches for snow. Perhaps it'll be stronger than the models have shown.

So wishing for snow.

Should be fully sampled for the 0z runs. Don’t believe it was for 12z but not positive. 

Pretty much NAM vs the world at this point. 

I guessing a very powdery inch, maybe 2

Speaking of events falling apart… High res models really backing off the event for tomorrow morning. 

I think you can disregard how dry the euro was, for now. However, you can’t ignore the overall southern trend it, and other models continue to show. Seems like a central OK to central AR storm

7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Was thinking the same thing.  Miss north then miss south.  SMDH.

Coming out of this stretch with nothing but a couple dustings is hard to do, but it appears that is what I am about to do. Pattern looks very boring after Sunday too. 

4 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

What's up with this south trend?  Central AR getting hammered on models now. 

I expect the strong push of cold air to continue to push this south. I don’t expect much of anything in southern Missouri, and I’d be pretty nervous if I was in northern Arkansas. 

Sure starting to feel like this is going to be south of most of us in Missouri 

SGF zone forecast for Greene county calls for “heavy snow accumulation” Sunday. Don’t recall seeing that before. 

Local Mets are far from excited about Friday. 

Roads are starting to get slick in Springfield. I think a flash freeze is a real possibility tonight. Saw a MoDOT plow in the ditch on the way home 

1 hour ago, JoMo said:

34 degrees and rain still sucks even when you are expecting it. Sun-Tues system still looks somewhat interesting, should be some high ratios with that snow for some. 

I think the Friday system could still be interesting. Cold air should be crashing in and models typically don’t handle that well. 

I am putting all my faith in the nam. It has never let me down before 

2 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Verbatim the 6z GFS has snow falling for 24 hrs straight IMBY for the Fri-Sat storm.

Kuchera gives me 22” of digital snow. Even the 10:1 says 18”

I swear if this rug gets pulled out from under me..

The problem is it’s kind of GFS vs the world 

If the NAM is right, there are going to be a lot of unhappy people in parts of Kansas and Missouri