so_whats_happening

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

That one is different from the SAI obviously, which Judah has been pessimistic about

Because that shows anomalies not an index so yes they are different.

Im not sure what constitutes a good snowfall cover season over another but we have seen buildup decent since the beginning of October to be just below average currently. As for sea ice the Pacific side and CAA is suffering a little but the Atlantic front is surprisingly strong right now. 

https://cryospherecomputing.com/

Edit: you can see where the ridging has been most of the summer which seems to be where some of the anomalous ice deficit has shown up with the re-freeze.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The downwelling Kelvin wave back in March looked more impressive to me near the Dateline. And Nino 3.4 took until August to really respond. So this event will already be past its peak  if any significant warming is realized in 3.4 from it.

 

 

 

Here was the U total at 850 during the long late January to end of February WWB event. This also created one of these largest amplitudes of region we have seen in a very long time. The resulting subsurface and I stopped it just before the secondary smaller event took place in April. This should be able to support a +2C reading at some point (maybe mid November to mid December?) That would yield a potential trimonthly max around 1.7-1.8 when all is said and done the question comes what happens after this. Im just not sure though the longevity of such an event my guess is a month at best unless we see continual WWB activity show up through much of November but again im not seeing temp potential of 2.1-2.3 out of this. I can make a gif tomorrow of this lead up thus far from mid Oct to now.

From my quick look it tends to take about 2 weeks to get a solid reaction out of an event. Take for instance the WWB in the EPAC in early March it did not show up until the March 20 time frame on TAO.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Here is the EPS for 850 wind anomalies. I see some westerly anomalies in the EPAC (probably in part from the tropical activity)..but nothing screams like some sort of crazy feature that will change us to super Nino. The larger WWB is actually retrograding to 135E. If the EPS is right, some WWBs west of the dateline in Novie.

 

 

Yea I guess we are seeing what will come of a west propagating WWB, typically this goes east over time as a decent anomaly across all regions but there is a rather weak response further east than you would want to see. GFS also had that second WWB maxima about the first week of November since has weakened it most likely in response to an Equatorial Rossby wave taking shape again and spawning maybe dual cyclones again?

A push to 2C in 3.4 is not out of the realm of possibility but the ability for it sustain itself is another thing. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@CoastalWx IMO the Nino is already well coupled and we have a very clear atmospheric response. Besides the very consistent and persistent negative SOI run for a couple of months now,

Average SOI for last 90 days

-10.61

we have this…

No signs of MJO propagation, this is low frequency forcing dominating the tropics. This means that El Niño is strengthening and coupling.
 

1. MJO weakening as low frequency forcing (El Niño) now dominates global forcing.

2. Continued Walker cell coupling as the positive IOD and El Niño intensifies

3. El Niño and ++IOD forced subsidence over the IO and Maritime Continent 

4. WWBs

Cant argue the MJO or the Nino/+IOD look those are well seen at this point. Walker circulation needs some work probably in a more neutral position look overall. The first image you see when scrolling down, of course it is for DJF but the look still remains.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/walker-circulation-ensos-atmospheric-buddy

As for WWB's this is certainly no massive event. We have seen these levels and actually stronger earlier in the event. It also remains to be seen whether this was it or not for the WWB's going forward a couple days ago models were showing another potential in the first week of November but have since lost it. Let us wait another week or so to see the results of what just happened before we start saying it is off to the races or it levels off.

2 hours ago, griteater said:

I agree with the spirit of what you are saying here that we will see warming associated with this new downwelling wave and bouts of general westerly wind anomalies across the nino basin.  Where I think I differ is with the magnitude of warming.  It's kind of like the old saying "when someone shows you who they are, believe it."  Same thing here, we should see some warming, but will we see intense warming rates that are in excess of what we've seen for many months now that will throw this up into super status?  I'm thinking no.

Just for reference from the last two super Ninos.

Edit to add 2015 specifically as I do not have 1997.

So here was the large WWB event from the mid to end of May we saw the effects in about 2 weeks start to be noticeable in the subsurface configuration after the WWB took place. So far this one was a bit further east than the one that took place mid to late May. About the same magnitude but also had easterly progression from an event in May around 90-100E. This is typically how I see a WWB going to help relocate warmer waters further east and allow subsequent cooling to occur in its wake. This probably was the stepping stone to where we are with getting the +IOD to form as well as the final nudge in August which was an even slightly further east WWB event. Mind you nothing has stirred up east of the dateline to date but the weakening of trades definitely spread across Nino regions from not only the WPAC WWB but a minor EPAC WWB working in tandem. Now it is possible we see something in similar fashion take place but with yet again further east placement of this new WWB. Although again I am unsure what a west propagating WWB means in warming ( guess we will find out) overall though OHC in the 100-180 region didn't move all that much even with the large WWB event in May and August. Can also do one leading up to August and past the August event if folks are interested.

This alone is the reason I do see us going to +2C for a bit but I do not for see it sustaining itself long let alone getting much above that as we move forward. Again I only see the warmth maybe lasting a month at best and that may be giving it more credit than I should. 

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

3.4 bouncing around the 1.5-1.7 range. Looks like the ONI for ASO will be around 1.4, and this nino may end up with a SON peak. 

It could strengthen a little, but I think we are close to peaking. 

September and October I believe will end up about the same as far as monthly means go. As for peak I do not believe this has occurred yet. I still do see about a months worth of floating around 2C this will help nudge the ONI up but still be below that 2C trimonthly that has been floating around for sometime. OND peak is likely and we will have to wait and see what happens after we get into November, but if we continue on the path we have there is about a 2-2.5 month difference in between large WWB events over the entire life of this Nino. This would put another around early January which would most likely just help drag out the Nino instead of it collapsing but that is to be determined. I personally feel this is the last solid push we will see with this Nino event so it better be a big one to get even remotely close to a super trimonthly average.

25 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

 

Looks like an OKW was generated and the warm pool is on the move. The arrival of better westerly anomalies after the monsoon season ended was expected. Probably going to take a couple weeks for that to start to be felt further east though.

Been trying to remember to save these as well since it shows a broader look of the Pacific.

6 hours ago, griteater said:

 

In theory, it makes more sense for El Ninos to have +IOD and La Ninas to have -IOD

+IOD: subsidence in Indonesia

-IOD: uplift in Indonesia

 

I would say two things come to mind with the effects of +IOD:

1) Early winter would favor MJO 8-1 forcing which is warm in the east in November into mid-December, but flips cool thereafter

2) I believe bluewave linked a paper that discussed the big +IOD from autumn of 2019 and the idea of the powerful uplift cell from Africa to India leading to the big +AO that winter.  Not seeing that type of structure thus far when viewing the past 3 months

 

 

Very cool to see the bounce between the 2 hemispheres given fairly similar situations, only thing is we have a stronger nino this year.

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a well-respected subsurface temperature product here.  Can see the overall weakening over time, but El Nino in place

 

 

Can i find this on BOM website?

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Temporary flux from Typhoon Tej. It caused cooling further west in the IO. Extremely unlikely that it peaked and further strengthening will start again once the Typhoon effects wear off. A very well coupled +IOD system is already in place

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Temp trends for a few days now have been showing warming taking place near Java/Sumatra. That is all i simply pointed out. This would reduce the temp difference across the IO and thus start to lower IOD values going forward. You would need a rather dramatic reversal in the next 2 weeks to start a replenishment of the cooler upwelling waters. With trade wind forecasts showing up more into the central IO and weakening as we move to November im not sure we see much more increase. Even some models show a peak in november area as you just posted. So it wouldnt be too far fetched to think peak has been reached.

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Awesome, thanks! Looks like it’s at -0.32 now, with it being closer to -0.2 a couple days ago

Yea I am sure with enough digging around one could find a database with daily/ weekly values or something along those lines.

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Definitely made great progress on the PDO. Looks slightly negative to me, or even neutral (within +/- 0.5 is how I define neutral), just a tad warm across the entire basin.

Where do we get the daily PDO chart? It was -0.33 last time I saw it posted here. 

As far as the IOD goes, I’m not sure it has much value in winter season forecasting. I couldn’t find a strong correlation with EC temps, precip, or snowfall. If anything, we want it to be positive. 

For the MJO, just about all phases are going to be open for business, including 4-6. The difference this year is that 8-1-2 should also be open for business. 

Yea Im still not sure what to make of the IOD for our area I have found it rather irrelevant but in the indo-pacific and Africa region definitely an instrument that needs to be watched for them. Definitely feels like a byproduct of Nina/Nino development but not everyone follows similarly in path so...

As for daily PDO this is the only site I know that posts it for daily. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

On the top right you can see a quick glimpse of several charts that are highlighted.

So did we hit peak +IOD already? Let us see if we can get another resurgence of the cool anomalies to maintain the +IOD values.

Latest TAO/Triton Subsurface

Not too much to speak of. Overall the Upper ocean anomalies have remained fairly steady now for a month. Still do believe we manage a month of near or over +2C as for trimonthly doesn't look likely as of now. Some funkiness in the VP map with minor subsidence across much of 3.4 not allowing a relaxing of the trades within that region. With the potential re-emergence of -VP over much of the IO I am curious what happens out there as we move toward November. Typically the end of +IOD is when the easterlies are disrupted and moved away from the equator so something to keep an eye on as we go through time. Ill wait to see how the models handle that secondary WWB near the dateline in the first week of November. This motion in -VP and overall funky displacement may mean we have a moving but low amplitude MJO wave into 2-3 as we move into November, we should finish up in 8 through October and maybe land in 1 to start the month.

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only time we had MJO forcing in the 8/1/2 regions last season was the second and third weeks of March.

Yea if I remember correctly things hit a wall around 6/7.

I wonder what the resulting responses will be when the trimonthly is attained. Lol one can only guess at this point. I think regardless of peak temp the idea is well laid out again barring some major shake-up in subsurface.

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting, any diagrams you could share here? 

I thought I might have seen something that alluded to this, but I'm atrociously forgetful when it comes to links

This one maybe?

Long Term Surface Impact from Hunga Tonga.pdf

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I should have added, there are apparently 3 models that make of the average shown. The F2 model is the warm one while the F2-3Var is much cooler. Unfortunately, the 3rd model Fsii isn't  available on the site. The point is, I believe the mean is skewed by F2. 

 

Happen to have a site for this? I don't typically look at computer models for this type of stuff except what gets posted.

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Trending in the right direction the past 15 days. Still negative, but not extremely so. Upcoming rex block N of Hawaii should help continue this trend

Yes with the more consistent Nino-like atmosphere it is seemingly staying that way, I hope we continue this as we move forward. The cooling along the SA coastline should also be noted as this now pushes to a basin-wide Nino. The IO should be interesting to watch coming up here too. The trades are even stronger in due time from about 70E to about the East African coastline which may induce some warming of the cold anomalies around Sumatra and cooling in the western IO in time. 

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Every month of June-Oct have had a +PNA despite the very strong -PDO during the same period. Are there any implications?

During that time we have also had very warm SST anomalies in the B.C./ Gulf of Alaska region this has definitely helped in allowing a more ridge potential to occur with a +PNA pattern despite having a very -PDO. We saw last year from June-October 2022 we also had quite a bit of +PNA and ridging occur. We switched quite dramatically in November though as cold water re-emerged in 3 and 1+2 and waters cooled dramatically off the B.C. to Alaska area and well we know how the rest went. As long as we do not see major cooling in that region and no major cooling in Nino regions 3, 1+2 it should stay even with a -PDO as is. The image showed a 'normal' region along much of that area with warmer anomalies more west I would want those along the coast line to help support a +PNA look continually otherwise it wavers back and forth and certainly do not wish those waters to cool as that will just guarantee a -PNA pattern to exist.

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Jamstec updated October forecast out. Snowman19, you'll need some time alone in a locked room with its absurd SSTA forecast. Here are the DJF maps for SSTA, surface temps and precip. Link to all info here: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html

 

The more important aspects are the -PDO is still intact definitely taken a hit but still negative. Definitely will be a solid back and forth year for overall PNA with that kind of look along the west coast to Alaska. The +IOD is still there again weakened but still there we have a much more basin wide look overall for a trimonthly average around January.

We are not too far off from these values currently the only thing different would be the continued cooling of 1+2 with time and a slow warming of 3.4 over time. I do believe we will see a +2 month sometime soon for 3.4 but i do not see continuation of that temp for many months just a slow demise the subsurface waters are just not there to keep it sustained for that long. Again this being that we don't see another massive KW as past events have shown to happen around this time of year. 

We have about 2 more weeks until November lets see how the end of the month progresses should get a much better idea of impacts to come.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is the site for these historic subsurface plots?

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html

Goes back to 1950 always defaults to the latest plot in the beginning

Edit: guess it is now to 1947.

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder when it will be said, '...the writing was on the wall ...' with regard to when this El Nino peaked.

I've always wondered if the actual global mechanics for this warm ENSO event were being partially confused (assumed to be more) with what is really an "elasticity" in the planetary system.

We suppressed, thermally, for 4 years or whatever anomaly that NINA mode unrelentingly carried on ...then, La Nina ends.  There's a kind of over compensation in the other direction as the system wholesale got momentum that overshot the real resting point. That overshot casts the allusion of it being a harder right into El Nino, but it was really just about a correction going on.  Now, the correction settles off, exposing a more moderately warm ENSO - buried inside a pepperRONI pizza with multiple toppings notwithstanding

Anyway, when the dust settles from the (hypothetical) compensation idea, the remains of the "real" El Nino is left exposed as more of a moderate in the relative sense. 

I like the thought makes sense, do you have thoughts on progression after this was this a one bump deal or could we get another bump next year?

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

As far as the missing cold subsurface in the WPAC, maybe that's not a bad thing? It could indicate a multi-year nino instead of a one-time blast before a return to la nina conditions.

Your guess is as good as mine.

So multi year Ninos were 1957-58 & 58-59, 68-69 & 69-70 (didn't want to include this one because it was low end moderate at it's peak), 76-77 & 77-78 (weak Nino overall but also had a cool surface in the WPAC), 86-87 & 87-88, and lastly 2014-16. Of course unfortunately there is not one matching this overall evolution but again a big missing ingredient is the much cooler waters in the WPAC. 

I did have that in mind for quite some time of a multi year Nino thought it would be like these past situations where the first year was mehh and the second year was much more pronounced again only year that was opposite of that progression and was stronger initially and weaker second round was 57-58.

Certainly has been an interesting go about thus far and should be interesting to watch for October- December. We should have a solid feel of how this will progress further I feel by the end of the month. Let see how the ocean reacts to this WWB west of the date line and the weakening of trades across the other regions.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/t-eq_tcc.html