so_whats_happening

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

I finally was able to find past TAO/Triton Data here is the monthly mean break down since March. Unfortunately the data only goes back to June of 1989.

 

Took a little time to do the monthlies for 1997 and 2015 while at work. March to December monthly means for both years. Once we get October monthly we may a different picture from the previous post. Ill check other years weak, moderate, strong to see if we can see a somewhat similar evolution taking place.

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Correct, it’s in the top 3 in the last over 43 years. That would classify as “near record”, I didn’t say it was “the record”, but extremely impressive nonetheless. And @Terpeast just in terms of SSTs, I consider it to be east-based, it’s not even close to being a Modoki, or becoming one….not even in the ballpark 

1982 was also warmer at this time for Nino 3 so I guess top 4 it is. I wouldn't have quoted you had you not put in parenthesis (record warm) when explaining that Region 3 is almost near +2.0C on OISST. 

BTW do you have a link for those IOD values just trying to get them for my records.

13 hours ago, Terpeast said:

 

Interesting changes in the last 15 days. 

1) WPAC warm pool has cooled quite a bit, while nino 4 & 3.4 has warmed (though 4 has recently cooled while nino 3 warmed a bit). Could help -VP forcing shift a bit east of the dateline if this isn’t just a temporary blip. 

2) Strong cooling off Japan as their season gets colder, leading the upcoming rise in the PDO. Also the “cold tongue” off the west coast of mexico has also warmed slightly. However, ssts off the U.S. West Coast are still cooling. We’ll need that to stop and reverse in the next couple of months if we want a sustained +PNA in Jan-Feb when it counts.

This will definitely be interesting to watch coming up. We either reverse the -PDO rather drastically or the Nino takes a hit. As long as we do not go back to a ridging pattern around Japan we should continue this for the time being. Looks like things changed around end of August with ridging focused more near the Aleutians for September.

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Latest ENSO weekly update:

Region 1+2: +2.6C
Region 3: +1.9C
Region 3.4: +1.5C
Region 4: +1.2C

This El Niño is still very east-based. I see very little to no chance at all of this event becoming a Modoki, despite the non stop hype from JB. Region 1+2 has warmed back up to +2.8C on the OISST as of yesterday’s update, region 3 is almost +2.0C (record warm) on OISST

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

How is Region 3 near record warmth for this week? '97 had a 2.7 anomaly the week of Oct 1 and 2015 had a 2.3 anomaly the week of Oct 7th.

I finally was able to find past TAO/Triton Data here is the monthly mean break down since March. Unfortunately the data only goes back to June of 1989.

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx This is very likely to be the strongest +IOD event in history. It jumped all the way up to +1.85 and still strengthening

 

 

 

 

Can't find a source for the IOD data as presented, would love a link for those numbers as well as past numbers.

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m talking specifically about the area of the tropical W Pacific W of Nino 4 and N of Australia from 120E to 160E, 15N to 15S. This is an area that meteorologist Brad Harvey has been focusing on for W Pacific forcing that had previously been at or near record highs for much of the last three years. He believes that the warmth of this area has likely been a major contributing factor toward recent years’ winter warmth in the E US/increased domination by the infamous “SE ridge” by focusing tropical convection N of Australia, thus leading to both a tendency for increased duration/amplitude of warmer winter MJO phases and tropical forcing from that area to dominate even when the MJO wasn’t officially in warm phases.

 Here is a link that calculates that tropical WPac area’s SSTs for Septembers back to 1948:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl?ntype=1&var=SST&level=2000&lat1=15&lat2=-15&lon1=120&lon2=160&iseas=1&mon1=8&mon2=8&iarea=0&typeout=1&Submit=Create+Timeseries

 Below is the image of that area’s SSTs for Septembers going back to 1948. It shows the 0.7C to 0.8C cooling in 2023 vs 2020-2 along with the cooling that I assume was associated with the aforementioned fall 2019 IOD event. It isn’t quite as cool as the 2015 Nino Sept (0.108C warmer than Sept 2015) although it is 0.133C cooler than the 2014 Nino Sept and is 0.231C cooler than the 2009 Nino Sept:

I  gotta ask if I am doing this right say I wanna look at anywhere east of the dateline essentially trying to grab a 180-100W scope but since it is in east degrees would i put 180 to 260 as the input?

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here comes the coupling:

Gotta ask why use SSTA-global mean?

56 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Paul Roundy: “As is often the case in El Niño events during Northern Fall, a subseasonal westerly event transitions the east Pacific from easterly anomalies to westerly anomalies. This signal will strengthen the east Pacific nature of this event.” @so_whats_happening

What is this in reference to tag me?

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

It is from here:

https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl
 
 I was told about this site by a pro-met, who closely follows tropical WPac SST anomalies via this site. 
 The following post has animation that also shows the tropical WPac cooling:

 

Gotcha I have not used that before so ill have to check it out then.

I would like to see a stronger response to a cooling WPAC, in 97 we saw a much more widespread WPAC cooling take place from mid to late summer through fall, I tried to get as best to get monthly differences. When the +IOD collapsed around November into December things rapidly warmed in the WPAC thus starting the demise of the Nino. Now not everything plays out in the same manner but I would like to see much more negative anomalies abound otherwise we may be getting close to peak of +IOD in the next month? which may not allow the El Nino to set off another solid WWB event due to warming of waters that would take place because of a collapsed +IOD. Also take a look at the Atlantic I think that dichotomy is an important factor in all of this as we saw with the La Nina over the last 3 years where we had an "El Nino" Atlantic. Unfortunately do not have images like this past 1996

It is going to be a very interesting month to see how things shake out.

Also I did want to mention Im not sure the +IOD plays a factor in the strengthening of an El Nino. I believe it is more a thing that happens because the El nino is occurring much in the same way the PDO tends to change with an El Nino it can get strong or flip but it doesn't necessarily rely on the strength of the Nino to do so, I hope that makes sense.

We had one of the largest +IOD events in the last 20 or so years back in 2019-20(+3.4 in Dec) the year ended up neutral, it may have offset the cooling that was happening so we did not have an even more extensive La Nina event but that is a big maybe, then we had back in 2015 (+1.41 in Nov) during the super the values were nearly half that of what occurred in 19/20. Before 2015 the last large spike besides 97/98(+4.08 Dec) was 2006/07 (+2.15) where we made it to upper end weak status.

Back in 2009/10 we barely had a noticeable +IOD went to about +1 towards the end of the event (+.89 in Feb) and that was considered a strong year.

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/

Unfortunately this only goes to 1993 unless others have a monthly database to get IOD data.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know if it is just for the short term or not, but a large portion of the tropical W Pac (15N to 15S, 120-160E) is actually significantly cooler than the last 3 years at this time (~0.7 to 0.8C cooler) while the central and E eq Pacific is much warmer as we know.

I guess it really is up to what source you use to detect changes in anomalies. CRW is rather warm while CDAS is rather cool in that region. It should become cooler than the last few years as the heat and subsurface warmth have shifted east, which is typical from Nina to Nino transition. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

In comparing years in similar time for region 4

1982:

Sept 29.09 (+.33)

Oct 29.44(+.67)

Nov 29.27(+.57)

1997:

Sept 29.44(+.68)

Oct 29.34(+.58)

Nov 29.39(+.69)

2015:

Sept 29.82(+1.06)

Oct 29.84(+1.08)

Nov 30.13(+1.44)

2023: 

Sept 29.84(+1.08)

You can see that over time the warmer waters have indeed stayed further west inhibiting probably full connection in Super events of more recent as Im sure you would see this in other strengths of Strong, Moderate, and even Weak. That is the competing factor issue. The eastern portions during this time were much higher in the three events (might be on par now with 2015 in region 1+2) and Im sure if we compared the areas in the east we would get somewhat similar increases in ocean temps relative to the average at those given times but the anomalies would probably differ by quite a bit. Probably the only surprising thing with this so far has been the massive warm up that took place in 1+2 at the beginning of the event, 1+2 typically have the warmest time as the Nino decays. The only other event that I have seen with such a big warm-up in 1+2 before the other regions was 1997 so I can see where the comparison for that comes from.

Why we are not getting more cooling in the far western Pacific is beyond me honestly and definitely needs to be a study interest and hopefully some more information comes out about this over the years. When comparing SST's across the three events Region3,3.4, and 4 were much closer together temp wise which definitely makes it easier to have a much further push east of -VP, the difference was around 1-1.5C between region 4 and 3 with a much smaller difference in comparison of 3.4 and 4. 2015 at one point had almost a 2-2.5C difference between region 3 and 4 and nearly 1C difference between 4 and 3.4.

So far for September (until we get more months in) the difference between 3 and 4 is nearly 3C and the difference of 3.4 and 4 is about 1.5C that is quite the gap to close and would mean we either cool nino4, which doesn't seem too likely as of now, or we warm 3.4 up quite dramatically to be able to a have better shift in -VP over more of the central/eastern Pac regions instead of west of the Dateline.

Looks like we just have to wait for the results but would favor a further west -VP staying as it has all spring and summer even with the +IOD as it sits.

I had posted this in another forum but figured I would throw it here too. This is the 500mb composite using all El Nino strictly on the basis of 3.4 in the strong or super category ONI as we went into Winter. I did not include 1987-88 as that winter had peaked extremely early (august area) and went toward moderate during winter. I did however include 1991-92 and 2009-10 even though they had later peaks than usual. December looks about as typical as it gets January not bad but definitely a competition between Aleutian Low and Greenland High. Things balance out nice over February.

So we have a westward propagating WWB event due to an Equatorial Rossby Wave that will probably form a Typhoon in the far western pacific. This should induce a KW going forward, though im not entirely sure what comes of a west propagating event like this and how strong of wave could come of this so lets give it some time to see what may come of this. VP is taking on a rather weird look the forecast is trying to show a weakening in the WPAC -VP, of course we will have to wait and see if consistency comes of this. The spreading of more consistent -VP over the Central and East Pac has been waning a bit with each update. So the weak MJO going to more of a 1 position means the very eastern portion of the PAC and South America experience this -VP into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if this changes up as we go to the end of October. 

IAH was probably the biggest surprise by far. Also the lack of heat getting up to BOS/ NYC was another surprise. 

I made these while at work just to get an idea of what things looked like graphically. I have all other years like weak, moderate, and strong that I can show as well both Nina and Nino.

Basically plotted OHC in the 3 sections (one basin wide, Nino region wide, and one we tend to see more of Nino region 3.4 with edges into 3 and 4 (100W-180)), temp from ERSST monthly for 3.4 and 1+2. I didn't include SOI as that would have really taken away from the graph visually but the monthly numbers can be seen.

Forgot to update 1982/83 with 1+2 but the numbers are there. The 13 and 14 on the graph represent the next year. What I have noticed is that once we cross the OHC we tend to only have about .4-.7 more SST anomaly increase from that crossing point. The only times this has not been the case was from rapid warm-ups after we experienced the crossing. If you want other years Ill post them.

Just now, Terpeast said:

So a 0% significance means that there is a 100% confidence level that warmer eastern US temp anomalies arise not from random chance, but from the mjo phase 6?

if that’s the case, I’m not a fan of the way they use these significance #s. It’s confusing

Yea pretty much if you scroll over at the top and do the different percentages that is a better way of looking at it. Basically if it is in purple it should end up warm or cold depending on the trimonthly and phase. Of course it should probably read a little less because of other random factors that get involved.

Latest update on Subsurface

7 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Looking at phase 6, what does the 0% significance mean? 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

I don’t know what the 0% significance means on any of the maps. I got these maps from this website:

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#thumb

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/readme.shtml

This is the main site: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Go down a little and you will find this:

Dc. +1.6

Nyc +1.4

Bos +1.7

Ord +2.3

Iah +1.2

Atl +1.3

Den +1

Phx +.8

Sea +1.1

Late entry at 9:40am

New update to the subsurface. Ill keep saving into October but wont have much time to post have some busy days coming up here will do so when I get a free chance again.

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Here it comes!! “Interesting to see the MJO finally gaining some oomph for the first half of October, we'll have to see if this comes to pass.”

See: https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1707331586897715477?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw


And the +IOD gaining even more strength…

Conveniently leaving out the rest of the quote does not make this post any better man. I thought the whole idea of a strong/super el nino was to not rely on the large amplification mjo waves to help produce results. Nino should have already been able to do so?

Btw i dont think anyone has denied the idea that another round of warming would come, it was always a matter of when and how intense. I have been mentioning for a while the time pattern would suggest mid to late october from back in early september when were having a similar talk.

Going to be very interesting to see what happens as trades look to continue to hold a cap on things through the first week of October, maybe longer?

5 hours ago, griteater said:

Paul Roundy has spoken...

 

 

 

 

 

Wow if that was not the best example of someone copying anothers thoughts then i dont know what would be better... kinda wild!

13 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I posted this yesterday.  Waters around Japan cooling rapidly as of 9/25, so no reason to worry about that yet imho.

This has actually been hit quite a few times by rather strong cooling episodes and has been rather resistant for most of the summer, so we shall see. Feel we need a significant typhoon to move through that region to really stir things up. Slow moving would be the best.

5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will say he isn't just saying it for nothing, probably not the best way to approach it but here nor there.

Nino 3.4 correlation to SLP for June through August and each particular warm ENSO event with weak, moderate, strong, and super events during the summer time period.

Edit: It goes moderate, strong, super, weak in descending order

 

Here is 2023

Technically if we are basing it off of ONI we are in moderate to strong territory for the summer I made a composite of mod-strong years at this time of year.