so_whats_happening

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

+.6        +.7       +.9         +.5        +1       +1.2     +1.5      +1.5      +1

100       98         97          95        99       102       99        117        95

Just for comparison sake 97-98 compared to 23-24. Winter 500mb seemed pretty spot on as far as placement with key features of course intensities varied spring however does have some similarities thus far but not all the same. Should be interesting to see how we continue into summer.

Here was the 500mb pattern from 2/28-5/28

Here is the preceding 3 month period when we were in full swing Nino territory (11/28-2/28)

Changes but notably the ridging has indeed pushed further east into the north Pacific so we may start to see a cooling in time of the WPAC? Especially if we do have a decent typhoon season but yet to be seen as of now. Which I would guess we eek out a typical WPAC season given we are transitioning to La Nina status.

Here is the 90 day SST bonkers amount of warm anomalies showing up just south of the Aleutians. This will change over time since there is a 12mb file limit on posts.

On 5/29/2024 at 8:43 AM, bluewave said:

It actually seemed to work the opposite way in 2015.  That year featured 462 ACE points in the WPAC for the 4th most active typhoon season on record. This was followed by the record WPAC warm pool for a super El Niño in 15-16 and historic December +13 and record MJO 4-6 for such a strong El Niño. So the WPAC has had no difficulty recharging its heat content. We even saw this in recent years with how rapidly the warm pool near Indonesia rebounded following the fall +IOD patterns. At this point I am not even sure what it would take to cool that region for more than a few months at a time. 
 

Accumulated cyclone energy - Pacific typhoon hide

Season	ACE	TS	TY	STY	Classification
1997	570.4	29	23	11	Extremely active
2004	480.6	31	20	6	Extremely active
1992	470.1	31	21	4	Extremely active
2015	462.9	26	20	9	Extremely active

Yea the idea should be that an extremely active typhoon season should start to cool these waters but the waters only cooled for about a 2-3 month period (if that) before rebounding quite substantially. I also do not know what it will take for this to break and even more surprising was the fact we were near super levels for an El Nino typically we should have had an above average if not extremely active season, we had what was more of a typical average season if not even a more below average season for the WPAC. One thing of note was that we did not have a lot of strong recurving typhoons last year most were weak when they did recurve so maybe that played a role?

In fact we just had our first system form a couple days ago which is close to the later start timeframes we have seen for the WPAC typhoon season. Surprisingly most after some of the extremely active season of strong/super El Ninos.

1st- 1983 June 8th

2nd- 1984 June 7th

3rd- 1998 May 28th

4th- 2016 May 25th

5th- 2024 May 22nd

23 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Since ACE has been brought up quite a bit figured I would add this as well: (Named/ Hurricanes/ Major)

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

1949: 16/7/2 96 ACE

1954: 16/7/3 104 ACE 

1964: 13/7/5 153 ACE 

1970: 10/5/2 40 ACE

1973: 8/4/1 48 ACE 

1983: 4/3/1 17 ACE

1988: 12/5/3 103 ACE

1992: 7/4/1 76 ACE

1995: 19/11/5 227 ACE

1998: 14/10/3 182 ACE

2005: 28/15/7 245 ACE

2007: 15/6/2 74 ACE

2010: 19/12/5 165 ACE

2016: 15/7/4 141 ACE

2020: 30/13/6 179 ACE

You can click on each year too to see the tracking map to see what years had solid landfalls. It is interesting to note 1970-71 had a solid cold spill into the US even with low ACE but high solar. 2010-11 had nice cold across the country but large blocking low solar and high ACE. There are definitely odd ball years that arise.

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

For starters, I think we can throw out 1949-50. That one came after several enso neutral seasons (1946-47 is the only one in the previous 5 years that resembled an el nino, but that was very weak and very short). 1949-50 is the last first year la nina that didn't result from an el nino transition.

I don't like the 2020-21 analog either. The preceding el nino (which started in 2018) was weak, and 2019-20 was a unicorn season that hovered around 0.4 or 0.5 until it dissipated (this hasn't happened in over 75; the aforementioned 1946-47 comes the closest).

1970-71 and 2007-08 can be okay analogs. The only thing is the el nino of those preceding years was weak. I guess 1970-71 could pass if you consider the first year of the preceding el nino (1968-69) was moderate.

This leaves 1998-99 and 2010-11 as the best of the six analogs on the list.

I'd replace 1949-50 and 2020-21 with 1973-74 and 1988-89.

My list of six best analogs, at this point, would be 1970-71, 1973-74, 1988-89, 1998-99, 2007-08, and 2010-11.

Agree on 1949-50, just had a completely different subsurface going on than any of these other years. 20-21 wasn't too bad of a year think the low solar really helped that year out a lot. If we are strictly going off the idea of a stronger Nino to a mod/strong Nina we take out 1970-71 and 2007-08 as while they did go to mod/strong Nina status they came off relatively weak Nino states just like 20/21 and 1949-50 did.

Here is what the overall 500mb pattern looked like placement overall was still relatively similar of course the most notable difference is the Atlantic pattern as we did have a couple low solar years tossed in there (07-08,20-21). I also got a SST reconstruction for each set of years for may conditions leading into those winters. Not making conclusions which will turn out better as they both seem pretty similar just wanted to present the data with them.

The one with the warmer equatorial pacific matches with the years coming off strong Ninos to strong Ninas. 

The cooler pacific was the group of years I had used in the previous post. 

Here is the current daily SST anomaly.

Again sorry for all the posts but one final one. If we combined all the years mentioned above we get not a bad look to what may be to come. Maybe warm it by about a degree?

Whoops just realized I left out 2007-08 so six years (1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021)

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Going off the idea that 3 or more fit the idea of what maybe coming the best years shown are 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021. These five had more things combined that would lead me to believe if we do indeed go into moderate to strong Nina status these may be the years to use. Here are the subsurface looks for each year. Some are just flat out not in-line with where we are but Ill leave that for folks to decide. I do have the other years if folks are interested in specific years.

Of the years posted this is what the Dec- Mar 500mb pattern resulted in.

Just now, so_whats_happening said:

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Going off the idea that 3 or more fit the idea of what maybe coming the best years shown are 1949-1950, 1970-1971, 1998-1999, 2010-2011, and 2020-2021. These five had more things combined that would lead me to believe if we do indeed go into moderate to strong Nina status these may be the years to use. Here are the subsurface looks for each year. Some are just flat out not in-line with where we are but Ill leave that for folks to decide. I do have the other years if folks are interested in specific years.

Sorry for the delay, yesterday ended up being a lot busier than I expected.

So here is the chart I created for all years going from El Nino to La Nina. I highlighted the years that best fit the request of Westerly QBO, -PDO, High Solar (just noticed 83-84 and 92-93 should be highlighted yellow as they are still rather active years) , +AMO, and Volcanic activity ( a lot of years had a VEI 5 a year or two before the listed ranges). 49-50 QBO was a bit of a guess following the typical ~18 month span of QBO transition, data only went to 1953 for what I have.

Here are the sites used to help create this table.

Volcano Data - https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear

ENSO Data - https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

                      https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

AMO Data - https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Data - https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Solar Cycle Data - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

QBO Data - https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat

Ill take a look into it tonight/tomorrow what subsurface looked like coming off these years 72-73,87-88,94-95, 97-98. 09-10, heck ill even throw in 91-92 and make a gif just to see where we are potentially aligning with going forward. If any others years are wanted just let me know.

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

This makes sense looking back at data in the early 90s (91/92) we peaked hard on yearly temps around the PA/Philly region and dropped dramatically afterward. We also were coming off an El Nino (strong) to neutral stance and we were also in a solar max situation. huh

We still have some pretty intense westerly winds in the Indian ocean.

Finally starting to take a nice Nina look especially with decent upwelling along the Peruvian coastline.

Limited to only 30 day animation due to max file size. Here has been the global 500mb look for the last 3 months. Really decent -NAO pattern to end the season and you can see why waters south of the Aleutians have warmed quite a bit. One interesting note is the cooling along the equator in the Atlantic right now. We largely did not see this during the strong/super Nino and typically you get something that counter balances between the two basins.

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Besides the robust RONI, it looks like there’s not going to be a disconnect with the MEI like there was last year. This time around, the PDO is going to cooperate (negative) with ENSO, as is the PMM (negative). The PMM and PDO were the main reasons for the MEI disconnect last year. Also, the models continue to back off the +IOD they had been projecting….This leads me to believe that a strong La Niña has a very good chance of developing and that the models correct stronger with this event as we go forward

I wish we could continue to monitor MEI data but in February they discontinued updating the data. Hopefully we can see that change coming up here with the push for a new data set instead of using JMA data?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

6 hours ago, roardog said:

Looking at the overall picture right now, you would certainly have to favor above normal temps next winter in the east, especially south of New England. However, as I've said a million times, I still think there is a huge overreaction to the recent -PDO/mild eastern winters. What are we on about a 6 year stretch of -PDO now? That's hardly unheard of. Also, the '72-'73 super Nino had a -PDO, so that has happened before too. I highly doubt this is some kind of permanent change. We will see another +PDO winter, probably sometime later this decade. 

If we didn't have the robust 2 year nino of 14-16 we would largely be in an extended -PDO pattern from about 99 onward.

Ill look to start adding some updates with real time stuff as we get into June, have had a really busy schedule the last 2 months that has not been conducive for much of anything. Luckily not a whole lot has changed overall.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

+1.2     +1         +.9          +.8     +1.2     +1.4       +1.5      +.3      -.2

Saw it in Waco Tx and had clear skies during  the totality. Got to even see the solar flares. Was amazing to see what everything looked like during that window of time. Can't wait for the next one in 20 years.

On 3/27/2024 at 9:55 PM, KChuck said:

I've been following the weather closer the last week. I've got a reservation in Medina, NY area from the 6th leaving back for home on the 10th. Going to overnight in Lancaster, Pa on the way up from North Carolina. Waiting a day to start out for home after the eclipse. Learned my lesson in 2017 when traffic from Greenville, SC was downright atrocious. It took us around 12 hours to make a 3½ hour trip due to a jack-knifed semi. My wife's nerves were shot, mine not much better. Tried to find a hotel to escape the Interstate and overnight in but they were all booked. Wound up going all of the way home. Medina does not appear likely to be in a congested area as far as I can tell as it appears to be relatively rural. I'll feel somewhat comfortable doing a short chase if necessary. Don't want to get in crowds as wife has an autoimmune disease. If it looks like a front will come thru a few days before and wash out the eclipse I can cancel and get my reservation deposit back. Our reservation is about dead center in the track, so we won't have to travel anywhere if the weather cooperates. I'm using the following link to keep up with forecasts from one link.

https://eclipsophile.com/eclipse-day-weather/

Have fun in Lancaster!

On 3/29/2024 at 1:03 PM, eyewall said:

yeah I am supposed to go to Texas for it. I am definitely nervous.

Yea Im actually getting a little nervous about TX right now.  ULL ejecting out of the SW with return flow setting up a day or two before. It would be cool to experience the cumulus towers beforehand and they all but disappear with the eclipse to come back as the sun starts to shine again. Ill be in Austin area during the time and can move around as we get closer to get a better idea of how things will fall out.

21 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Really cold in the subsurface now. For comparison, this may rival the strongest subsurface anomalies we saw in this past El Nino. 

I was just about to post this quite the increase in negative anomalies (or decrease, however you choose to look at it) in just 5 days. This also seems farther west then past events have shown which end up around 120-140 W currently this is sitting just east of the dateline.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.3     +1.6    +2       +2.6     +1    +.8       +.8      0      +.4

Happy Easter Everyone. Wanted to get this done before Vacation starts.

5 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

We're nearing the end of that fabulous period in the Rockies I call "bullshit Spring". It runs from 2/15-4/15. High elevation zones often get smoked with heavy snow, high wind and frequent rapid temperature changes.

Once 'bullshit Spring' ends the next item to look for is when heat arrives in the Southwest. La Ninas that see early heat in Albuquerque (90F by 5/10 or so) tend to be relatively cold winters in the Southwest with more frequent cold waves. Given the harmonic tendencies of recent months, I actually think May could be fairly cold here. We've actually not hit 70F yet here, even though late March average highs are about 65F. 

I was checking some observations in the highlands of Mexico the other day. Nino 1.2 has flipped negative v. averages. Typically the vacating of excess heat in that zone accompanies unusually dry air getting fairly close to the equator. I saw some dew points as far South as 15-20N in the teens (F) in recent days. Normal dew points are ~40(F) ish in that area of the world in March. 

It will be interesting to see how things go to mid April. Western ridging around the GOA with a -NAO blocking flow sounds like more troughing into the west through early April and severe weather into the plains.

Here is a 90 day coralreef animation to start things off.

There does actually seem to be some cooling of the WPAC warmth just under Japan in the recent month. This should as Raindance mentioned help with a weakening of values for the -PDO coming up. Let us see what happens.

Some pretty solid subsurface negative anomalies showing up. Ill look to keep track of this probably starting next month. Warmth at the surface still holding on decently near the dateline, we will see for how long though.

Models are still having trouble with the MJO forecast I could see a weaker bout for 3/4 coming up here after 1/2 before it picks up again for 6/7/8. It will be interesting to see what this does as we get closer to summer time with the hurricane season. Slowly looking more and more Nina like aloft, VP starting to head back toward the Maritime Continent.