so_whats_happening

Not necessarily but it should help chances.

Lucky for you I have an anomaly map I saved from last year around this time. Im going to have to delete some images from earlier on this thread and last thread because im running out of space again. 400mb is a killer

Never said it was going to warm back up only said the pattern is still well entrenched, but we are continuing to see changes occur (slowly). The storm track was much further north last year than this year. Here is the first 25 days of August last year and this year. (Can't get to the end of the month because it has not updated) Here is August and September last year storm track significantly further north and toward the Bering sea with a strong low.

Nice little storm took place in the north Pacific this past week. Wiped a out some of the warmer waters, but still very much entrenched though. Need quite a few more larger systems to really knock it out. The most noticeable change from last year to this year is the cool pool is not set up in the Bering sea or gulf of Alaska.

They have been in every season for some time now. While daytime does get to some extreme levels for the different times of the year consistently the nights are well above average in every season. The most noticeable of seasons at least around here has been in winter. I mean it was like 2 years ago I think we had one evening below 20F around Baltimore the entire winter the rest were in the 25-35 range, that is huge in winter around here.

Last year to this year look at the subsurface.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -.3 0 +.2 +.3 -.5 -.5 +1.2 +1.4 +1.3 Sorry late by a few hours again

Also wanted to post the latest for July and August via TAO on the subsurface look between 2N and 2S.

Did a very quick rather busy chart on excel. Basically it is the JJA ENSO data from CPC in blue and Ace numbers for the season in orange. Now this doesn't help explain where we came from like previous winter may have been Strong Nino and we crashed to weak nina by summer as an example which could play a role. This is for every year from 1950 to 2024. Edit: Had to fix it so you could see every year. Shame it does not have dots for Ace to see the years better.

Looks like we circle 1-2-3 again coming up through the last 3 weeks of September, some even show 8 with the cool neutral look we currently have (we wlll see). Should open up the door for a handful of systems but where we go into October will leave us with clues going into winter. Definitely weird we would have a slow season if we are indeed in a Nina state as well as getting recurves typically not a normal occurrence of being in a Nina state and a cool ending to summer also does not add up either.

Wow great forecast Rodney S

Yea it was interesting to watch the Beaufort region this year not many years have remained intact in this region. If we did not have such an abysmal growth season we could have managed a rare positive uptick within the downtrend. Will be interesting to see when we officially hit the floor and just how the beginning of the season sets up. We did just get a massive warm region showing up over the last couple months in the Atlantic near northern Europe that im sure will play a role in how this year goes for growth.

Nice 90 day loop

Seems reasonable the atmosphere looks really nice coming up and in a good warm pocket. Should at least get 3 days of major hurricane status.

Rough guesstimate depending on just how strong the system gets coming up here but we should get close to about 30 ACE on the year which for the date will be just slightly above average, have 6.6 right now. Will be interesting if we get any follow up storms after this one to end out the month. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic