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so_whats_happening

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About so_whats_happening

  • Birthday 03/21/1991

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KLNS
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    Lancaster, PA

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  1. so_whats_happening
  2. so_whats_happening
    It has been something I have been watching for a bit. We don't seem to have the preconditioning issues of April through early June we saw over last 15 or so years prior to the switch up. No miraculous comeback by any means but interesting to see the change up. Very similar to 2000-2009 timeframe for April to June.
  3. so_whats_happening
    June Monthly Temperature Anomaly Forecast: For anyone new wanting to enter, the forecast contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies at nine locations across the U.S., in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages. The nine locations are DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA This month we will also add on Max temps in each of these locations listed above. Please have forecasts in by June 1st @ 6z
  4. so_whats_happening
    Sorry been rather busy and the month snuck up on me. This is for May final tally.
  5. so_whats_happening
    That -PDO is looking to make a comeback
  6. so_whats_happening
    This is not my chart it is through PSL and their data. We can go back and forth till our faces turn blue but with it being a multivariate index it just shows the issues of not having everything align within an ENSO state. Take for instance the 22/23 ENSO state, RONI and ONI were -1.3 and -1 at peak respectively but showed the MEI for that ENSO event categorized strong to borderline super Nina. So was it right in depicting that the atmospheric/oceanic pattern was more La Nina than what was being represented by ONI/RONI? I think it is important to look at all aspects and not lock ourselves into one index or train of thought. As we see Bluewave throwing his theories on how things are progressing globally they may be wrong or right but it is still taken into consideration. There will be flaws with every index we have as nothing is concrete but it is more so interesting to see where the index is seeing these issues arise in the different states. We quickly jump on the RONI bandwagon to depict what will happen without knowing the flaws in this index but nitpick others... that just doesn't seem right.
  7. so_whats_happening
    Im sorry but that is just not true, look at 97/98 as the example right on the money. There is a key thing within the variables it is picking up on that is causing it to be lower versus ONI/RONI. This seemed to have switched up around 09/10 season onward. In fact you could even argue it was pretty darn close for the 15/16 super Nino.
  8. so_whats_happening
    ONI coming in at 0.1 and MEI showing -0.6
  9. so_whats_happening
    I would like to see how this actually translates to surface readout coming up.
  10. so_whats_happening
    Here is for the month of May forecasts lot of cooler forecasts considering for where we have been for the last 3 months. I will update snowfall as we get close to the middle of the month, Ill have to go back repost it here at some point. Just as a reminder June will be max temp forecasts for the summer Ill post that as we get closer to the end of the month.
  11. so_whats_happening
    Here is the final scoring for April as well as the current standings Jan-Apr. Bolded are the scores with the highest total for each region, some great scores for this month and a great first month for GaWx. We had some changes in standings for Jan-Apr with Chuck taking a solid uptick even after missing out a month with Donsutherland taking a more commanding lead. Keep up the great work folks!
  12. so_whats_happening
    Here is a recap of forecasts as well as what ended up being the actual anomalies for the month of April.
  13. so_whats_happening
    Sorry there is a gap around the 8th of April TAO never updated for me
  14. so_whats_happening
    @dmillz25 @Stormchaserchuck1 @Rjay
  15. so_whats_happening
    That is why it is important for the 500mb to react in the proper manner so things do actually connect. Just because a precursor occurs to create this Strat warming/+GPH pattern but nothing actually sticks at 500mb than you just get warming aloft and nothing connecting. In my mind 23-24 had all the right things going for it but the 500mb atmospheric pattern was flat out wonky given the upper atmospheric pattern taking shape.
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