so_whats_happening

Fascinating! Really cool chart.

There is a fairly large system being modeled going into this weekend right over the warm pool region. I think there is forecasted 60-80knot winds already starting to show up across the area. Should definitely help continue carving out the cooler waters and moving that warm pool. As for the Atlantic there is still a decent NW Atlantic warm tongue around Nova Scotia so we should continue to see ridging potential in the region and add the risk of things at times connecting with the SE ridge. Im still rather hopeful that average snowfall can be achieved this year across many areas. RMM plots never fully grasp the intensity of such waves but regardless it should be pretty intense wave to start things off for fall. We are a little off where we were last year at this time for MJO but it looks to follow a similar path and intensity as we did through October last year. Here are the SST anomalies last year as we ended summer and went into fall. The PDO last year had a double dip take place and October values, at the time, were some of the lowest on record.

It looks like the warm pool SW of the Aleutians may be on the move very similarly to how last year evolved. This should continue to push further east with time allowing the index for PDO to start to make a run to neutral status. If we do indeed start to push these waters further east toward the Gulf of Alaska it should allow for a weaker overall trough going into Canada then we have seen. The waters west of Japan into the Koreas and China is not dwindling any time soon but if the area further east does try to continue to cool it could play for a pretty impressive snow event or two as a giant lake effect event like they experienced a few years ago. https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Also the MJO is finally on the move and actually becoming a wave versus the null action over the last 2 months. The enhanced trades are some of the furthest west we have seen in a long time this could very well continue to cool the waters at least around the eastern portion of the maritime continent as we go into late fall early winter. I would not be surprised to see one last system in the Caribbean for the month of October to close out the season as the MJO moves through 1-2-3.

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

Yea we will see what happens, I'm more so interested if this will actually show that negative anomaly being finally taken out. That feature has been present for a very long time even during the last Nino.

Just a quick update on the subsurface. Looks like it was a nice 'burp' in the ENSO state.

As always thanks Roger. It is nice to see as a consensus we do pretty well!

Oh boy a few hours late sorry DCA _NYC _BOS _ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA +2 +2.3 +2.4 +3.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.4 +1 +1.6

Although it does look like the 850mb wind field may be trying to change up. Lets see how it plays out Last 90days and then the next 2 weeks potential.

To me it just shows that forcing, namely maritime, is not ever omnipotent. Could it go back to being continuously 4-6 absolutely but currently regardless of what phase we seem to be globally open although weak in most locations, every single basin is firing off tropical activity right now. While it is something we don't see all that often and for this persistent I don't see it more than that.

We peaked earlier this year with the extreme -PDO so the runway is a little bit better.

When they get going they have become really nice storms this year. Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto all have had amazing satellite imagery.

I feel like there was a way but maybe that was a different forum I was on. So true though 100+ pages... im not going through that. CDAS almost looks representative to RONI output compared to OISST and CRW.

Man a lot to catch up on but it surely has been fun watching the forecasts for MJO over the last week or so. Also just saw OISST just updated they have been doing upgrades so things have been delayed quite a bit, call me whatever but I have this feeling we bottomed out already for ONI numbers will have to see as we go into early October if we continue to see it flatline if not rise. I forget how to look the post up for this I made earlier in the thread but still liking the idea of this look as we go into winter.