so_whats_happening

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.1 +1.6 +2.1 +1.8 +1.6 +2.8 +1.5 +1.1 Ill grade tomorrow evening when I'm back into work. Will also finish scoring for max temps looks like nothing has changed for many places.

@Stormchaserchuck1 @Rjay @dmillz25 @wxdude64 just a reminder

This was from the temp website https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf I use 925mb specifically to not get temperature but more so to see the pattern associated to this region in specific thus I will continue to use 925mb as a better representation of what is going on. This was a retention year in that the overall atmospheric pattern was on the colder side. Unfortunately I don't think we will get fairly accurate measurements of the lowest 1000' or so in this region due to the complex nature involved with sea ice/ oceanic exchange issues with the lower atmsophere. You will read this within the first paragraph as to the issues involved. Another factor is the slushification that is taking place throws another wrench into getting an accurate surface reading. 2006 and 2013 were also solid retention years. The time period of roughly mid April to end of June will continue to be an extremely important time to gauge how the melt season will go. There is a glaring difference when comparing ERA5 of 2013 to 2026 2m temps.

Yea 2m temps are tough over the arctic, typically you want to look at 925mb for temp anomalies to get better look at the overall. So average to below average for most of the time period over roughly 75N to the pole.

This is something you certainly do not see very often in this warmer world, especially in the confines of the Arctic. It was a solid retention year to say the least. Whether the temps are representative or not the overall pattern would suggest things didn't go haywire. It was a shame we started at such a low point from the previous winter which is weird coming out of La Nina to see such low volumes for sea ice. Will be interesting to see how this plays out going into winter.

It would be fascinating to see happen as it would be a very 1982-83 style end.

We look to be roughly a month and a half apart from how 1997 transpired but we have a pretty weak cold pool comparatively, so this will be interesting to see how this event ends. Makes we wonder if we do actually go to a solid La Nina or more so a weak warm to neutral ENSO state. Nice to finally see the recurve happening more frequently and maybe just maybe the northern hemisphere pattern changing.

September results please post below for October forecasts.

I forgot to show the back half of 1997

It does start to become noticeable when you take a look at things in this perspective. Southern hemisphere and tropics still humming along as they have been.

Sorry for the lateness just had some free time to post. Here are the September forecasts. I will try to update max temps around mid October and we will do the typical snowfall forecasts around the December forecast timeframe. As stated before I will try something with persistence come the new year for anomalies of a 6 month running mean to see how that works out. Bkviking I may have to invoke some late penalty for that but we will see how the month shapes up before that happens.

I'll give it another day or two before I post September forecast numbers for BKViking to submit. Here is the update on Max temps so far this summer. Reminder the error is for every degree off is only 1 point off. Green indicates that it was a record high tied or set that day of the max temp, most of these should remain untouched but will revisit this again in mid October. August results were updated on the bottom of last page.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.1 1.8 1.4 4.2 2.1 1.5 2.3 1.5 .6

@bkviking @dmillz25 @Rjay Friendly reminder for September forecast temps

I will probably have to delete some attachments soon but doing a quick comparison to 1997 and 2026, slightly off time frames but similar process took place and we maybe should see similar results happen? Ill make one for 10-16 to end of 1997 at some point. Shame we have so much cutoff right now. Open up new window and check them side by side to get a better comparison.