JayPSU
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Everything posted by JayPSU
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Sleet fest 2022 here so far.
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I think it looks better than modeled at this stage of the game. Hang in there, bud.
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I’ve been saying I feel good about where we are for 4-6+ and I still do. But I’ll hedge at 5” for a final call. I’m more worried about mixing than a wiff.
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Yep, if the "game" was getting over a foot of snow, you should know better. We just don't get snow like that here more than once in a decade or two. The game is very much alive for 4-6" here for all the reasons you mentioned. I like where we sit at this juncture.
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I really don't think the Euro looks that bad at this stage...
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Pretty much a straight apps runner. Transfer happens very early on. It's really not far away from a big hit here.
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Well, the good news is the bleeding to the SE is slowing if not stopped. As you said, you always want to be to the NW of the heavy snow shield at this hour. And I've said it million times, I'll say it again, the primary ALWAYS hangs on longer than the modelling shows. I recall so many busted forecasts for us that happened because the primary died too slowly or not at all.
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This is starting to look like a Miller B transfer type of storm. Seems to me, every time we have energy transfers, they ALWAYS take longer to transfer than modelled. We have been screwed with changeovers many times due to the delay in transferring.
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And if it comes in a bit faster, or the southern piece slows down a bit, bigtime storm for my area! We're due!
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March 1993?
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Come on, you're not excited by the 12Z GFS fantasy storm at hour 288, followed by the polar vortex hammer being dropped at the end of the run?! What's wrong with you?!
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We've got some mood flakes here.....yay.
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I would say there's still room for an inevitable NW shift...but that never seems to benefit us, only those to our north and west.
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Yep. If I’m reading the radar correctly, it looks like we’ll be dry slotted once we change back to snow. Those a little west of us...they could pickup a quick 2-4”.
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Getting some wind whipped sleet banging into the windows.
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And with temps in the teens tonight, salt is going to have a problem with it.
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Yep, you can see the dry slot flying through Kentucky and into southern Ohio now.
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Yet another one lost to the WTOD. Absolutely unbelievable. Oh, and we get to do it all over on Thursday.
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Meanwhile, the Euro remains rock solid with amounts approaching a foot along I-71 with a little room to spare. When the Euro says the same thing run after run after run, it is to be taken seriously.
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Euro making me feel better about this!
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Welcome back, buck, you were very much missed!
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Raining here in Westerville now. Models all seem to thing we’ll see 3-5” on the backside. Getting backside snow almost never happens though, so I’m skeptical.
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After the last few winters, I’m just very skeptical.
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Not sure if we're mixing here as I'm not outside, but definitely snowflakes in whatever is falling here in Westerville.
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Three successive runs of the HRRR have shown a steady migration south of the rain/snow line during the evening period.
