I didn't think we were looking at that long of duration? If so, that changes things. I was thinking this was a 6-10 hour deal...at least the main show.
Tropical systems are wild cards for sure - I just wonder if the forward motion prohibits double digit totals. I got 15" from Lee but it took many, many hours to get there.
Been thinking this very thing all day.
This is why I get most excited about winter storms that bullseye BALT/WASH at 48 hours out. Unless there's a legit compelling reason why it won't happen, the north trend is real and has taken that 1' of snow and turned to to mush here more times than I can count or even want to.
Going to be an interesting day tomorrow - as to be expected, axis of heaviest rains is shifting from run to run. The area getting "significant" rain is fairly small in size...latest GFS has the southeast half of Lanco getting 1" total.
And as a few others have stated, the big difference between Agnes and Lee when comparing to Ida is how much more of the watershed that was affected by the first 2 storms. Susquehanna will swell down this area somewhat but won't have much extra flow coming down from farther north.
Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least.
CTP this morning is saying a general 2-4" across most of Central PA, with some spots potentially getting up to 6". This seems less than what the consensus was last evening, but I'm far from an expert with tropical.