WinstonSalemArlington

Do you include the Triad in “central NC?” There are some people here who do not for some reason.

The Color Purple

The research/experimental GraphCast for next Tuesday morning.

Hope is a dangerous thing

Euro Tuesday PM

From QuagmireWx

Credit Eric Webb

Dr Jonathan Wall: Upper air pattern is favorable for a snowstorm in NC 1/17+ (see analog on right for big NC snows) — there’s just one problem: we need a STJ s/w instead of a northern stream dominate s/w and so far that classic split flow has yet to appear. If pattern holds, possibly 1/20-1/30?

NWS special message

Nikhil Trivedi: After a quiet December, we've entered a very active period of weather which won't be shutting down anytime soon. What will change, however, is who is favored to see snow. This pattern will force a major storm cutting through the Great Lakes (Jan 10), bringing some much needed snow to the Midwest. This storm should push deep into Canada and greatly amplify our -NAO. Our Pacific ridge will build poleward in tandem with this. We start with our retracted jet inducing a Pacific ridge and Western US trough. This frankly ridiculous high-latitude blocking regime should squeeze our polar vortex into Southern Canada, which will likely force an arctic outbreak in the US in 7-10 days. The associated arctic high should force a mountain torque event which intensifies the jet. This should allow our trough to surge east in 10-14 days, opening the door for our next Eastern US snow opportunity. Given the suppressive nature of the Arctic-influenced pattern, it could honestly be one that favors the Southeast for snow. We'll see.

Jumpin January