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WinstonSalemArlington

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    Allan Huffman: Today, the 12z runs of the 3 major global models each show a winter storm for the Carolinas/SE/mid-Atlantic although different impulses. CMC on the 6th-8th, GFS 2 systems on the 5th-6th and 7th-8th, ECMWF on the 5th-6th. I wouldnt pay attention to the details yet, just know there is winter weather risk, especially between the 5th and 9th.
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    HECS
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    Katie bar the door
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    Dr Jonathan Wall: As we wait for this Jan 7-10 period to lock onto a system, plenty of big dog members out there. To get a 10”+ snow, it will most likely be a miller A, as depicted by this EPS member. Note the cold is delayed enough for a low to form, the 1043mb high is west of the lakes.
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    Mike Thomas Fox 5 DC: It’s (ECMWF) so cold it has subzero temps in Atlanta (January 11). That has not happened since the aforementioned 1985 January Arctic air outbreak. Again not sure we’re at this extreme yet but it’s something to see typically warm-biased model bringing down this level of cold!
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    Dr Jonathan Wall: Potential ~1/6-8 trending better, but no discrete storm potential yet. This gif shows the 4 run trend of the EPS centered on 1/8. Trough moving SW, blocking over Greenland trending west. West coast ridging stronger. 33° highs at RDU on the EPS. Are you ready? ⛄️ Btw, that 24-hr snow chart is typical of DC/DelMarVa/NYC this time of year. Not RDU. Liking our chances here more than usual.
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    From Mike Thomas, Fox 5 DC:
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    Eric Webb: Pepperidge farm remembers when the "record" cold PDO was supposed to give us a -PNA/SE ridge pattern all winter long this year. Instead, the exact opposite has happened/is continuing to happen & the PDO is rapidly rising. A lot of people finding out the hard way that the PDO has no value in winter forecasting & it doesn't "force" the extratropical wave pattern, even in an extreme state. The PDO is at the mercy of the tropics & the atmosphere
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    Models agree that the first half of January will be frigid
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