WinstonSalemArlington

The Color Purple

The research/experimental GraphCast for next Tuesday morning.

Hope is a dangerous thing 

Euro Tuesday PM

From QuagmireWx

Credit Eric Webb

Dr Jonathan Wall:

Upper air pattern is favorable for a snowstorm in NC 1/17+ (see analog on right for big NC snows) — there’s just one problem: we need a STJ s/w instead of a northern stream dominate s/w and so far that classic split flow has yet to appear. If pattern holds, possibly 1/20-1/30?

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Nikhil Trivedi:

After a quiet December, we've entered a very active period of weather which won't be shutting down anytime soon. What will change, however, is who is favored to see snow. 
This pattern will force a major storm cutting through the Great Lakes (Jan 10), bringing some much needed snow to the Midwest. This storm should push deep into Canada and greatly amplify our -NAO. Our Pacific ridge will build poleward in tandem with this.

We start with our retracted jet inducing a Pacific ridge and Western US trough.

This frankly ridiculous high-latitude blocking regime should squeeze our polar vortex into Southern Canada, which will likely force an arctic outbreak in the US in 7-10 days. The associated arctic high should force a mountain torque event which intensifies the jet.

This should allow our trough to surge east in 10-14 days, opening the door for our next Eastern US snow opportunity. Given the suppressive nature of the Arctic-influenced pattern, it could honestly be one that favors the Southeast for snow. We'll see. 

Jumpin January 

Eric Webb:  

This is the first time all winter that I’ve seen a pattern that has legit potential to produce significant wintry weather in the southern tier of the country. (Mainly talking about near-just after mid-January)

It’s still a long shot even in a good pattern, but the ingredients are there. 

For ex, to get a good storm in the south, you typically like to see the southern edge of the snowpack over the CONUS get down to about the I-70 corridor or so. This is generally what the EPS is forecasting here

Forecast:  the sanitarium is full