lakeeffectkid383

Storm will end up further NW so will the mix line as they always do with these systems so furthest NW will get more.

My calls KBUF - 3.7” KROC - 3.3” KSYR - 2.1” KIAG 5.8” Wolfie 4.5”

Well see what happens. I’m expecting about 2 inches at my place, 3” for BuffaloWeather, and about 4-5” for you out there on Transit. Keep expectations low and if it’s higher you’re pleasantly surprised.

Updated maps. Expected and High End.

WWA for all of WNY. 3-6” with less along the lakeshore. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and downed tree limbs. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow accumulations will be lower along and immediate lakeshores.

All mesos are way NW. I find with these types of systems they usually are NW of the globals and usually end up more right. These storms almost always track further NW than guidance shows so the mesos persistently showing this gives me great pause. I could see it happening just like SBS said with the lower elevations especially within a few miles of the lake staying a mix or even plain rain for a majority of the event while Niagara Falls or Lockport sees 4-6”+.

3-6” max for lower elevations. 6-10” for highest elevations. Advisory for everywhere but S Erie (higher elevations not you or I), Catt, Allegany and Wyoming Counties. I’m expecting 2-3” at most at my location on elevated surfaces. Maybe an inch on the driveway come Wednesday morning.

Gotcha. Yes the cold air is more impressive. 20s with full cloud cover Wednesday night is more impressive than the snow will be.

We’ll have to see how it all shakes out. Just my personal unprofessional opinion that this is going to be nothing more than a nuisance event for this area. Not sure how it can be a one in a 50-100 year storm when I can remember more impressive events in the last 10 years than this but maybe it is for that part of the country.

The main part of the storm is overnight into Wednesday morning. Average low is 38 so it’s not like it’s going to be crazy cold. Talking a 8-10 degree departure. Will probably be up to 40 by Wednesday afternoon and most of the snow will be gone by Noon Thursday. Is it impressive ? Sure. Extremely rare, I don’t think so, IMO. I believe it was April 2011 there was a storm that dropped a few inches over the lower elevations but some of the higher elevations in the Southern Tier got 12-18”+. Now to me that’s a once in a generation storm. There’s nothing being modeled right now that shows this being anymore than a once in an every few year event. Hell parts of SNE just got a foot of snow 3 days ago and they’re close to the Atlantic Ocean with with average temps 5-7 degrees higher than that of here. They also had a 3-6” event in mid April last year.

Channel 4 forecast.

Isn’t going to stick to ground much. Elevated surfaces for the most part. That ground is warm from weeks of 60-80 degrees. Could see a slushy inch or two on the road before the sun comes up but once the sun is up it should melt pretty quickly. NWS this morning “A late season SNOWFALL looks likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. Though a bit early to pinpoint amounts this graphic shows the chances of seeing 2" or more of snow. Snow will stick to mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but a slushy accumulation is likely on some roads. ”

Wish it was. This isn’t a huge event. More of a nuisance than anything. Trees have only begun budding, not even close to full leaf out. Would take 6”+ of 5:1 paste to bring em down.

Looks like a decent consensus for now. Don’t see this as a waning event with warm antecedent ground temps this seems more like an advisory for 3-6” max.

18z GFS looks like low goes right over BUF so nice dry slot for a while before some scattered flurries. Better than lots of rain I guess.

Don’t look at the mean look at the ensemble members. It looks good for WNY but there’s many more misses than hits. Just a few good “hits” skewing the mean to look good. There’s not a snowballs chance in hell BUF sees 6”+.

This ones done. Stick a fork in it now and don’t even waste your time lol. Congrats to the 2 people at 1800’ + on the Tug who will catch a few inches. The rest of us will be staring at the street light looking for a lone flake mixed in amongst a bone chilling rain. Bring back spring please.

12z GFS is congrats DET to YYZ. As SouthBuffaloSteve said last night let’s get this over with cause we all know we may see a few wet flakes on the backside but this ones a rain maker for all of Upstate. Just end this misery of a season and let’s move on to spring/summer. Last week was such a tease with consistent 70s/80s and plenty of sunshine. If we’re not gonna get anything of significance wrt snow then I’d rather have the warmth and sunshine. Just aggravating season that EVERYTHING has been the same track all season long with Michigan and S Ontario jackpotting every single storm. Been a good season for them but in Upstate it’s been a different story.

I’ll take 9,10, or 13 please. If it’s gonna snow it might as well snow big.

Don’t toss.

Berkshires to Mts of S Vermont look like Jackpot in this one but definitley looks good for the higher elevations of E NY as well.

Check out the pure lake effect snow firing over Southern Ontario. Pretty impressive for April mid day.

Solid coating on everything in Derby. Snowing steady to heavily right now.

Just got the first shot. Crazy how many people are here. Hundreds.

Has an inch where there’s WSW east of Lake Ontario LOL.