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HurricaneTracker

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Everything posted by HurricaneTracker

  1. HurricaneTracker
    Yes it should lead to higher totals there.
  2. HurricaneTracker
    Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd! Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope. EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!
  3. HurricaneTracker
    2.38" at my house in southwest Buncombe County since 7pm last night.
  4. HurricaneTracker
    I see that too. Interesting evolution, especially for NW Piedmont (which would be significantly drier). Wetter solution for southern escarpment, despite the model not responding with enough QPF.
  5. HurricaneTracker
    Just examined both 12Z GFS and Euro. Totally concur with this statement. Both models move Florence west of Asheville (and now HRRR seems to be latching onto this idea). I know I put out a rainfall outlook last night, but that may need to be revised....up. Flow is just too strong with PWATs over 2.00", even in the mountains (!!!), so rain rates will be efficient. Watch this space.
  6. HurricaneTracker
    NAM appears to be an outlier. It continues to be furthest north and east, like over VA/TN line on Monday. Whereas the GFS, Euro, GEFS, and EPS, all have it over Knoxville Monday morning. NAM not known for its skill with hurricanes...global models might be onto something here. Need to see where Florence is at 12Z Sunday. That will decide who gets rain and how much. Fairly robust differences in track even at this stage...has major forecast implications.
  7. HurricaneTracker
    Latest NHC discussion says west at 2mph
  8. HurricaneTracker
    Euro ensembles have a mean in AVL of 5.1", with as much as 9". GFS up to 6.1" mean. NAM....well.......it’s the NAM with a hurricane CLT mean is 7.8" on Euro. Hickory is 6.0". We will see. Euro and GFS trended a tad southwest, thus the increase in QPF. NAM still north and east and the driest of all models.
  9. HurricaneTracker
    Based on available guidance, including 00Z NAM, 18Z GFS, and 12Z Euro....the dividing line between some rain and a lot of rain will be I-26 or so. 3-6” for McDowell up to Avery. Buncombe and Madison county storm total rain will be 1.0 to 1.5” and anything west of Asheville will be an inch or less. Henderson county will be 1-2”. Models have not only sped up the departure of the remnants of Florence, but also trended north and east so the storm doesn’t go too far south into South Carolina. This pushes the best moisture and forcing well away from the southern Apps. So generally good news for WNC! In fact, I would cancel the Flood Watch for Buncombe, Madison, Haywood and points west. Though my backyard is hard and dry as all get out, this will event will not help too much, especially for dry areas west of I-26. others? Thoughts?
  10. HurricaneTracker
    GFS further north and east than Euro. Not sure who is going to win this battle. But, GFS is then much drier because the upslope is focused more into Virginia instead of NC. Something to watch for on the 12Z Euro in a few hours. Location of the center of Flo makes a big difference.
  11. HurricaneTracker
    Models seem to have finally settled down with a track SSW through South Carolina, ending up between Greenville and Columbia. This puts the mountains in very favorable upslope flow. Then the low should move nearly due north across the western tip of NC and into the Ohio Valley. Going to be a rainy 2-3 days around WNC, starting Saturday. Still trying to figure out how much will fall. That's a complicated forecast.
  12. HurricaneTracker
    Probably more. 60kt barrier jet into the mountains from the east/southeast with high precipitable waters. Can't do that meteorologically without having a really strong response. Of course, this assumes the track stays the same, which it won't. Expect more changes as the days evolve.
  13. HurricaneTracker
    Is that even possible!?!? Went shopping in Asheville tonight. Absolutely nobody knew it was gonna snow. One gal said if it did we would get a dusting. Oh my oh my. NWS has some explaining to do...
  14. HurricaneTracker
    Couldn't agree more. We saw this all last winter too. For whatever reasons, GFS does seem to be the last one to the party with these wave interactions in the winter.
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