HurricaneTracker

Yes finally! About 1.7" down so far

Haywood EMC already has 790 outages

FV3 or GFS? GFS is only 1.20" for AVL....very close to its previous run.

18Z NAM....who ordered up an ice storm?

Nope. I’m not in on that. No good reason to believe it when I’m all rain. Seems it’s p-type algorithm is off.

I’m still waiting! All rain all day here in Candler.

Should be far enough north to escape the warm nose. 10-14" seems like a good forecast.

I’m reducing snowfall totals for Buncombe and Henderson counties based on an analysis of all new data. Boone is all snow, just lower QPF. There will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet. So... Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, may end as freezing rain Hend/Zirconia: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is: AVL: 10-15" HEND: 15-20" So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft. I will post an update / revision later if conditions change.

I’m reducing snowfall totals based on an analysis of all new data. It seems highly likely there will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet. So... Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, no ice Hendersonville: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is unchanged from yesterday: AVL: 10-15" HEND: 15-20" So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft. I will make another update/revision this evening.

Warm nose really entered the equation for just about everyone along and south of I-40 in NC. Even mountain snowfall numbers get slashed due to mixing.

Euro is bad news folks. It also has the dreaded warm nose all the way to Hickory. +1 at 700mb. Damn. AVL liquid on Euro is 1.90" and we lose some to sleet/rain. First run in 5 days to show reduced snow amounts.

So it’s elevation dependent at the moment. Looks like 3000’+ is where you need to be to see snow. French Broad Valley just too warm at the moment. Low 40s! Supports rain as HRRR indicated. Problem is, HRRR keeps AVL all rain until 9pm. Further cuts snow totals. GSP afternoon update will be difficult to say the least. But really need to think about reducing totals...perhaps dramatically.

39/36 here in Candler (southwest Buncombe). Nothing but solid rain

GFS is a whole lot better with cold profiles. Warm nose never gets to NC/SC border. But but but it has only 1.00" of liquid. Sigh.

We will see. RGEM matched it. Now we wait to see if GFS has the warm nose

We can hope but we are within 12-18 hours of the event. Doubt the models are wrong on this. That warm nose is as stout as the lower cold air wedge

Question becomes which short-term hi-res model is best? 3km NAM, HRRR, or RGEM?

RGEM looks like NAM through 18 hours. Warm nose surging north on 50-60 knot low-level jet. edit - massive warm nose tomorrow at 7am on RGEM. Snow totals seriously in question.

No longer the case. Look at the sounding data I posted 15 minutes ago. Warm nose is clear as day.

The HRRR is quite a bit colder with minimum warm nose through 2am Sunday. 3km NAM already had sleet by then

Sorry to say but your sleet starts at midnight tonight and lasts for 12 hours. Minimal amount of time for snow.

Forecasts always subject to change as fresh hi-res model data come in. Warm nose is a big deal. Snow totals here and Hendersonville will need to be reduced

Uh oh. 3km NAM has 4-6 hours of sleet for Asheville overnight tonight, during the period of best forcing and maximum moisture. Bye bye snow totals. Time to sound the alarms. This is not an epic event or once in a generation event. Oh and 12Z NAM cuts QPF by 40-50% as well. Damn.