Phelps

Wondering if we can squeeze out an inch or 2 tomorrow up top.  Seemed to be looking promising yesterday but the hi res are not looking so hot this morning.  Probably just a wait and see given how borderline the temps are.  

I left Beech yesterday and all that snow from a week ago seemed to be showing no signs of going anywhere anytime soon.  Still a really good scene up there.  

Charlotte always seems too far east to get snow, except situations like this when it's too far west.  

2 hours ago, wake4est said:

I would sell a non-vital organ for the fantasy GFS to verify.

 

Half whining half serious question... I understand it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to predict sensible weather 7+ days out.  It doesn't surprise me at all that models spit out a variety of solutions and many are wrong.  But it just seems to me like something has to be broken if your model routinely spits out a scenario that happens on a few times a century.  I guess it doesn't matter because the purpose of these tools is not to predict sensible weather at this range.  

Ray mentioned this in his winter forecast in regards to his assessment of 202/21: "The biggest “miss” was at higher elevations along the western escarpment where NW flow snow were few. We have not seen a good NW flow snow in a few years.

Living in Charlotte I am so scarred by WAA and mixing that I can't help but find the warmest looking model and assume it might be even warmer than that.  We've just had our hopes crushed too many times in the last 10 years.  

Got going here around 4 am. This was at 7.  Maybe 8” where I am on Beech  Nice to have winter return.  44 and midnight down to 23 right now.  

https://imgur.com/a/6sVttQe

So do we commend the GFS for being on this from the beginning or ridicule it for putting out 2 foot snow totals?   I guess that's a question for tomorrow afternoon! 

So does the GFS think it's going to snow 3"/hr for 6 straight hours lol? (in some places) 

Just looking at how this plays out on the hi-res models it looks like all this snow has to fall in about 4 hours.  I guess that's the entire point with a system like this.  I may need to set an alarm to catch the most impressive rates.  

6z gfs casually showing 18’ up and down the TN border…

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

If we don't get prolonged cold the ski resorts will be out of business. 

I don't disagree but the resorts (I can only speak for App, Sugar and Beech) have made remarkable investments in snowmaking capabilities in recent years.  It's to the point that they can basically cover the main slopes in a day.  It's been one of the warmest decembers ever, no natural snow, it hasn't been below freezing for a week, and the resorts are still open.  (barely, i assume)  Next week should be great for snowmaking.  

But it is crazy to think that at the end of the day they are in the hands of mother nature.  I would imagine they make most of their money on about 12 weekends and to lose one to warm and rain has to be painful.  

Just glancing at the GFS over the last few days there have been several runs that don't bring the humidity back at all for the next couple of weeks.  LFG.  

We're about to transition from whining about lack of cold, to whining about lack of warmth.  (at least until the sticky icky gets here) 

17 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

Snow Totals This Winter

Beech Mountain: 52.7 inches

Boone: 25.7 inches

Sugar Mountain: 78.5 inches

LOL.  Sugar with 25 more inches than Beech.  Looks like Gunther's ruler could be acting up again.  Might want to get that thing checked out! 

I don't mean to downplay the threat of a significant ice storm but how long is this thing going to last?  12 hours?  I was in Raleigh for the early 2000s ice storm and it just would not stop raining with temps in the mid 20s.  Again, I do think a high impact ice event is in the making but some of these apocalyptic maps need to be taken with a grain of salt.  

Looks like we ended up at the lower end of the range. Couple inches at the house. Probably more at the top. I am certainly not complaining though. There is soooo much snow up here right now. It’s been a fantastic winter for us.
 

And I’ll just say it’s been great for my sanity not to have to hope for snow in Charlotte. It hasn’t really snowed there since January 2018 and honestly feels like it might never snow there again.  (I realize it will but boy it’s been bleak) 

51 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

I feel comfortable saying 6-8 inches.  At my location the winds really whip and blow the snow so it makes it difficult to find a good spot to get a solid measurement.  Lol.  Went to bed with about 2-3 so overnight was a big plus.  Maybe picked up another inch during the daylight hours.  Skied sugar mtn this after and you would never had know it snow up top as it was a solid sheet of ice with 40+mph winds.  The lower half of the mountain was decent though. 

Yeah 6-8 seems about right.  Maybe closer to 6 where I am. It was still going to some degree when I left this afternoon.  I was surprised. 
 

I also got stuck on the BMP trying to leave as they had to shut it down for 90 minutes to clean up a bad wreck. It was pretty dicey out there today. Thankfully it was a Tuesday. 

1 hour ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Down to 22.8 with drizzle quality snow going on here on Beech.  Somewhere between a 1/2 to 1 inch so far. 

4-5 inches of snow then .25”(?) of rain,  and now it’s in the teens. Things are crunchy up here this morning. 
 

If we’re going to get to Ray’s 5-10 it better start snowing harder soon   

Appreciate the thoughts on Watauga.  I'll be there to see whatever falls.  

Are the northern counties not in a good spot for this setup?  RNK seems to be talking only a few inches for Beech and the GSP map looks to agree.  

2 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I'm more interested in the nwf behind it.

 

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Yep.  Snow Saturday overnnight isn't as exciting when you wake up Sunday to rain.  But a few days of nwf could be nice.  

Weekend is looking like it might be sloppy.  Hopefully the Euro has the idea.  But even if it doesn't work out Saturday and Sunday the NWF looks pretty good.  

From this morning up on top of Beech. Now 33 degrees (huh?) at the house (4500’) 

20 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Got about an inch here on Beech.  Surprise.  Now on to Tuesday and then Thursday/Friday.   

Yeah where the heck did that come from?  A little frustrating as I was up there for 4 days to celebrate New Years and it never got below freezing.  Then as I'm packing up it starts to snow unexpectedly.  Certainly eyeing a quick return trip Thursday evening. 

Side note; I know many on this forum are well aware but man it was bustling up in the high country.  I think you had almost everything booked up with folks on vacation then on top of that a lot of day trippers had the mountains on their minds as they heard about the White Christmas.  The ski resort looked like chaos.  I'm happy for the  local businesses but also won't mind seeing things get back to "normal".