Phelps

31.2 here on Beech.  Not sure the models are going to tell me much more at this point.  It will snow when the ULL moves through tomorrow but I have no idea how much.  But preparing myself for the changeover to take longer than I want it to.  

Wow, GSP with 8-12 across most of Avery County.  Not sure I saw that coming overnight.  

@MotoWeathermanis it going to be raining or snowing when we wake up Sunday morning on Beech? 

25 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

That's a very heavy dusting.

Lol. Dusting was absolutely the wrong way to describe that. But much less than 3.5. 

As is often the case 500-1000’ on beech makes a big difference.  Just a dusting so far at my place but coming down pretty good. 
 

GSP downplaying the next one.  The clown maps may be incorrectly showing some of the rain as snow before the NWF starts up.  

Profiles will quickly fall below freezing through
the column and any lingering low-level moisture will eek out some
light snow showers in the favored upslope zones along the NC-TN
border and the spine of the Appalachians.  Only light, sub-advisory
accumulations are currently expected, even at the higher elevations
of the northern mountains.  Flurries may continue well into the
day Thursday...not ending entirely until early afternoon, as CAA
begins to falter and residual valley moisture is finally exhausted.

It's been a great snowy day on Beech but there has been a lul in the action for a while.  Not sure we'll post a big number but doesn't mean it wasn't awesome.  

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Road conditions should be decent.

The traffic on the roads will be the headache. It gets backed up big time on the holidays around Sugar and Beech.

I was going to leave for Beech tomorrow but I’m biting the bullet and heading up this evening (through the squall line lol). 
 

Road conditions aren’t my primary concern as much as Friday evening tourist traffic. 4wd and chains can’t help when there’s a fort mill minivan pile up on food lion hill. I have a feeling it could get pretty gnarly. 

Man would I ever take the GFS to the bank. No travel issues Friday night. Wake up Saturday morning and it’s snowing and doesn’t stop until it’s time to head out Monday.  (Obviously would love a more widespread storm for the forum too) 

This may or may not work out but not sure I'd hit the panic button a week out.  But agree that getting skunked from Christmas to mid-jan is pretty brutal.  And February has been crappy for the last several years but maybe this year is better.  

Separately, Brad seems surprisingly bullish here for the weekend.  Yeah there could be some flakes flying and they were able to refresh the slopes with some man-made snow but not seeing much in the way of actual snow.  

Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold 

I don't know anything about TS tracking but the GFS has this thing pulling out of Charlotte by daybreak Saturday and the NAM even earlier.  Euro lingers a bit.  No idea if I should trust it but the trends sound like they are for less of an impact for this area.  Clemson/NC State is not going to be the mess we initially thought it was going to be.  

Hit 60 today. Now it’s snowing. 

A healthy inch or so where I am on the mountain.  Let's see what the NWF can do.  The temperature drop was impressive.  

Wondering if we can squeeze out an inch or 2 tomorrow up top.  Seemed to be looking promising yesterday but the hi res are not looking so hot this morning.  Probably just a wait and see given how borderline the temps are.  

I left Beech yesterday and all that snow from a week ago seemed to be showing no signs of going anywhere anytime soon.  Still a really good scene up there.  

Charlotte always seems too far east to get snow, except situations like this when it's too far west.  

2 hours ago, wake4est said:

I would sell a non-vital organ for the fantasy GFS to verify.

 

Half whining half serious question... I understand it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to predict sensible weather 7+ days out.  It doesn't surprise me at all that models spit out a variety of solutions and many are wrong.  But it just seems to me like something has to be broken if your model routinely spits out a scenario that happens on a few times a century.  I guess it doesn't matter because the purpose of these tools is not to predict sensible weather at this range.  

Ray mentioned this in his winter forecast in regards to his assessment of 202/21: "The biggest “miss” was at higher elevations along the western escarpment where NW flow snow were few. We have not seen a good NW flow snow in a few years.

Living in Charlotte I am so scarred by WAA and mixing that I can't help but find the warmest looking model and assume it might be even warmer than that.  We've just had our hopes crushed too many times in the last 10 years.  

Got going here around 4 am. This was at 7.  Maybe 8” where I am on Beech  Nice to have winter return.  44 and midnight down to 23 right now.  

https://imgur.com/a/6sVttQe

So do we commend the GFS for being on this from the beginning or ridicule it for putting out 2 foot snow totals?   I guess that's a question for tomorrow afternoon! 

So does the GFS think it's going to snow 3"/hr for 6 straight hours lol? (in some places) 

Just looking at how this plays out on the hi-res models it looks like all this snow has to fall in about 4 hours.  I guess that's the entire point with a system like this.  I may need to set an alarm to catch the most impressive rates.  

6z gfs casually showing 18’ up and down the TN border…

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

If we don't get prolonged cold the ski resorts will be out of business. 

I don't disagree but the resorts (I can only speak for App, Sugar and Beech) have made remarkable investments in snowmaking capabilities in recent years.  It's to the point that they can basically cover the main slopes in a day.  It's been one of the warmest decembers ever, no natural snow, it hasn't been below freezing for a week, and the resorts are still open.  (barely, i assume)  Next week should be great for snowmaking.  

But it is crazy to think that at the end of the day they are in the hands of mother nature.  I would imagine they make most of their money on about 12 weekends and to lose one to warm and rain has to be painful.