Phelps

If the models show a good look but you just assume everything will be bad 1.)you are most likely right BUT 2.) why are you here?  We all commiserate when things don't work out for us (and they haven't been working out) but if "winter is over" then this forum is of no use to you.  

1 hour ago, Amos83 said:

Heading up there this morning, hoping to see a a couple of inches fall today and early tomorrow.

Definitely think you'll see more than a couple inches.  Enjoy!  I'll be sitting this one out in Charlotte. 

Had to come back up to Beech to experience this.  It's deep.  I am not sure if it is more than December 18 but it doesn't really matter.  When you get this much snow the difference between 15 or 18 or 20 isn't the point.  Days like today are why we do it.  

I am having intense FOMO based on what I am seeing on my cameras on Beech. Looks to be snowing very hard. 
 

But otherwise today was awesome!

It took me approximately 6 hours to get from my house on Beech to Tyncastle.  Relentlessly snowing and I think everything in the area was so backed up they couldn't get the salt trucks out to us.  I think everything was fine until the skiers all left and the intensity of the snow picked up.  Would have turned around and gone back but that didn't feel like an option either.  I re-learned the lesson of when not to be on the roads up there.  

It is, and has been, absolutely hammering snow on beech mountain. Big sticky flakes. 

This report is being brought to you live from the Beech Mountain Parkway. Where I have been sitting for 2+ hours. 

33 here where I am on Beech.  Didn't think temps would be an issue after being in the deep freeze all weekend.  Curious how this plays out.  We're right on the edge of temps and precip shield but still think we should do ok.  

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

The 12z canadian and icon have it as well.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk
 

Obviously not focusing on one single model run but if we could get something like the 12z GFS that would make for a nice little wintery stretch heading into new years for the high elevations.  (in stark contrast to the last few years) 

9 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

Brad Panovich posted this from I assume their in house model. Good look.

Probably the same model that was spitting out 5-7 for earlier this week lol

Dropped to 29.8 at 4am. Currently 34.6. 

31.2 here on Beech.  Not sure the models are going to tell me much more at this point.  It will snow when the ULL moves through tomorrow but I have no idea how much.  But preparing myself for the changeover to take longer than I want it to.  

Wow, GSP with 8-12 across most of Avery County.  Not sure I saw that coming overnight.  

@MotoWeathermanis it going to be raining or snowing when we wake up Sunday morning on Beech? 

25 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

That's a very heavy dusting.

Lol. Dusting was absolutely the wrong way to describe that. But much less than 3.5. 

As is often the case 500-1000’ on beech makes a big difference.  Just a dusting so far at my place but coming down pretty good. 
 

GSP downplaying the next one.  The clown maps may be incorrectly showing some of the rain as snow before the NWF starts up.  

Profiles will quickly fall below freezing through
the column and any lingering low-level moisture will eek out some
light snow showers in the favored upslope zones along the NC-TN
border and the spine of the Appalachians.  Only light, sub-advisory
accumulations are currently expected, even at the higher elevations
of the northern mountains.  Flurries may continue well into the
day Thursday...not ending entirely until early afternoon, as CAA
begins to falter and residual valley moisture is finally exhausted.

It's been a great snowy day on Beech but there has been a lul in the action for a while.  Not sure we'll post a big number but doesn't mean it wasn't awesome.  

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Road conditions should be decent.

The traffic on the roads will be the headache. It gets backed up big time on the holidays around Sugar and Beech.

I was going to leave for Beech tomorrow but I’m biting the bullet and heading up this evening (through the squall line lol). 
 

Road conditions aren’t my primary concern as much as Friday evening tourist traffic. 4wd and chains can’t help when there’s a fort mill minivan pile up on food lion hill. I have a feeling it could get pretty gnarly. 

Man would I ever take the GFS to the bank. No travel issues Friday night. Wake up Saturday morning and it’s snowing and doesn’t stop until it’s time to head out Monday.  (Obviously would love a more widespread storm for the forum too) 

This may or may not work out but not sure I'd hit the panic button a week out.  But agree that getting skunked from Christmas to mid-jan is pretty brutal.  And February has been crappy for the last several years but maybe this year is better.  

Separately, Brad seems surprisingly bullish here for the weekend.  Yeah there could be some flakes flying and they were able to refresh the slopes with some man-made snow but not seeing much in the way of actual snow.  

Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold 

I don't know anything about TS tracking but the GFS has this thing pulling out of Charlotte by daybreak Saturday and the NAM even earlier.  Euro lingers a bit.  No idea if I should trust it but the trends sound like they are for less of an impact for this area.  Clemson/NC State is not going to be the mess we initially thought it was going to be.  

Hit 60 today. Now it’s snowing. 

A healthy inch or so where I am on the mountain.  Let's see what the NWF can do.  The temperature drop was impressive.  

Wondering if we can squeeze out an inch or 2 tomorrow up top.  Seemed to be looking promising yesterday but the hi res are not looking so hot this morning.  Probably just a wait and see given how borderline the temps are.