wxduncan

Yeah but no where near what there saying now. But at least all the models but the NAM and most mets don't agree with them yet.

Why would you say that?

Whos right is the question? Hell even the mets are sticking with the models and there forecast as of now. I don't get it...

Still think I will do ok in Morganton snow total wise of 4-6 or so? Or is GSP right and this is becoming a damn ice storm for everyone almost.

But yet all the models say otherwise so far. Lets hope there right and not this bs....

Wow what happen everything I seen so far from afternoon guidance shows me in morganton getting around 4-6inches. Seems like they think this is just going to be a ICE storm now for almost everyone even the mtns. Those totals up there got cut a good 8 inches or more.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- As of 300 PM EST Saturday: Winter storm still on track for the forecast area, but the trend continues for more sleet and freezing rain outside of the NC mountains and Blue Ridge. A little more sleet and freezing rain than snow now expected across the in the lower French Broad valley and the mountains west of the French Broad valley, at least early in the event. Off and on sprinkles and flurries will continue into the evening as weak lift moves in ahead of the main system. Precip chances begin ramping up after midnight and better forcing and deep moisture move in from the west. Expect a combination of rain or snow as the moisture moves in and evaporational cooling takes over and cold air damming strengthens outside of the mountains. The warm nose then kicks in toward morning and moves north across much of the area. The warm nose, and warming surface temps, then moves into the Southwestern NC mountains where cold air damming impacts are normally less. This means a change over to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and encroaching from the west. In fact, the lower French Broad valley and Little TN basin will see warming so that rain may be predominant for several hours. The warm nose even moves across all the NC mountains with a change over to sleet. As the surface low and H85 low move east, the warm nose moves east as well with colder air moving in behind. This will make a change back to snow from west to east across the area late in the afternoon. Precip chances taper off from north to south through the evening as the low pressure continues to move away from the area. Snow will linger across the mountains and retreat toward the TN border as the event shifts to a NW flow snow scenario. Winds will also be an issue tonight and Sunday as a strong low level jet moves in with the warm nose. Gusty winds will develop across the area with potentially strong wind gusts in some locations. Since a winter warning is already in place across the area, the wind threat will be included in this warning. Of course, these winds could cause issues where freezing rain accretion is highest. -- End Changed Discussion --

Just come out from GSP

Looks good Morganton is right there on the mean of 4-6. But very close to the 6-8 mean.

Care to post it the final totals of that for Western NC? CLT west to the mountains. If you can. @SnowGoose69

Only thing that might(key word) cause will be a long ways down the road. And it would likely have to do with temps and weather patterns according to Ryan Maue.

But Hickory west into Valdese/Morganton he said looks to get a good 4-6 inches of snow. So I'm happy with that. Now GSP is saying 6-8 inches of snow for these same areas. Just depends on the warm nose but this will for sure meet warning criteria then some. @calculus1

Well that's good news my goal for Valdese is 5 inches anything more then that is a bonus. I will say once the sleet and maybe some ZR get on top that will be around for days.

Where can I find that map?

Where can I find that at? I need it for Burke County. @strongwxnc

You look to get 1-2 inches of snow and 0.25 to 0.50 of ice. That's still pretty good.

Latest totals forecast from GSP this morning: PS: GSP says the winter storm is still coming and see no changes in the forecast/warnings as everything looks good. Only thing is maybe more freezing rain then once thought which was reflected in the maps above.

Just released and updated from GSP this morning.

So with the talks I'm seeing everyone might be looking at nothing to advisory level type stuff? If so what happen I thought everything was good? I'm in Morganton now I wonder if I get anything?

What's everyone thinking for Morganton snow total wise? Do you guys think 6 inches at least? Or is the NAM going to kill me with a couple inches while all the other models keep me in the 6-12 range. Even GSP on my new updated point and click upped me to 5-9 inches.

Ice Storm Warnings have also been issued.

From GSP Afternoon Discussion As of 300 PM Friday...Winter Storm Watches will be upgraded to Warnings with this afternoon forecast package, as confidence continues to increase in a significant winter event this weekend. A strong low pressure system will track from the Lower MS Valley thru the Deep South Saturday night, then across the Carolinas Sunday, lifting NE of the area Sunday night. Models are in good agreement on the track and overall evolution of the cyclone. Strong forcing and ample moisture will provide a period of solid precip band crossing the area late Saturday night thru at mid-aftn Sunday, then a dry slot will punch in from the south and a deformation zone will pivot over the area Sunday evening. There will be nice supply of cold air, as a 1030-1035 mb sfc high will move across the Great Lakes to New England, causing strong hybrid cold air damming. So the forecast is on track for the mountains to get mostly snow with this entire event. Where it remains murky (as usual) is across most of the Piedmont, especially along I-85 and to the south. The 12z models have trended stronger with a warm nose punching in with the warm conveyor belt, transitioning snow to sleet and freezing rain. In fact, it starts out warm enough that our southern zones from Elbert to Chester counties go straight from rain to freezing rain. The latest trends result an uptick in ice accums across the entire Piedmont, and less snow/sleet. Either way, confidence is high enough on snow, sleet and/or ice impacts to upgrade the entire watch to a warning. Damaging accumulations of ice continue to appear more likely along and south of a line from Anderson to Spartanburg to Gastonia, to Salisbury, including Charlotte and vicinity. Northwest of there, morning snow/sleet followed by a likely transition to freezing rain/drizzle of a few hours is expected to result in a somewhat narrow zone of a mixed bag of accums of 2 to 5 inches. Gusty NE winds within the CAD will add to the threat of power outages as ice accums on sides of wires, branches and poles. The forecast for the mountains and NC foothills continues to look on track, where 8-12 inches/locally higher amounts of mostly snow continue to look like the best bet. Strong cold advection combined with snow pack in some locations will result in min temps Sun night 10-15 degrees below normal...or well below freezing in most areas, so little improvement in road conditions can be expected through Monday morning. A brief, moist northwest flow in the wake of the departing cyclone could result in additional light accums across mainly the high elevations of the TN border counties Sun night. Continues should improve some on Monday, as skies clear out (except for along the TN border within continued NWLY upslope flow). Temps should get above freezing everywhere below roughly 3500 ft, thawing out some of the roads. But highs will be about 10 to 15 deg below normal limiting the melting.

GSP is upgrading all Watches to Winter Storm Warnings with this afternoon package.

Hows Morganton/Valdese looking total wise for everything? @HKY_WX

Is that Dry slot look to effect Morganton and Valdese. All these maps for snow totals have me confused. What do you guys think for my area totals? Given the map gradients. @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment