NeonPeon

The instability is great to watch on radar. Mesolows galore out to sea as everything blossoms.

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looking at radar scope one seems to be forming in eastern ct  to nw RI?

Absolutely. It seems to be forming in the place they always form. It's the oddest thing!

With this band coming in now wind has picked up. Occasional gusts to 30. Nothing crazy here yet but the first real noreaster feeling I've had in years. Snow is already blowing nicely. 

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Just took the dog for a walk to get his business done. Took twice as long as usual walked almost over a mile round trip to get it done. If that’s not a sign we are in for a big one tonight and tomorrow, I don’t know what else would be. 

Good luck. I'm sticking with my understated 9" idea for lowly Newport. No doubt you'll do better. I buy the idea that we will just staying out of the good business from the east, and I have never not seen a death band to the west that is showing up in more detailed modeling. That's every storm I've seen with a classic track.

I hope I'm wrong, because it would be good for everyone, but even if I make it to that amount, it'll blow my son's mind with the drifting and wind.

I'm done now. At some point you have to look out the window, and now's the time for me. Hope it doesn't disappoint too many, and people actually get out in it!

I totally buy a death band in the typical place west of here creating problems for me. What I don't buy is the odd wobble as the storms recenters eastward. I'll be interested to watch it happen though. 

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

BECAUSE I FUC%ING CANCELED MY GOD DAMN MOTHER FU$KING FLIGHT!!!!

Thanks for your service.

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

RI forcefield letting the team down. 

Lovely preamble, this. 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at the extremely favorable tracks of these lows.. 

Looks textbook, mmm hmmm.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

... massive easterly inflow...

Yeah. True, looking good! The pump is primed.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

.... your past experiences and results in setups like this.

Oh.. oh, no. Not those. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s literally nothing to brown your drawers over 

I made an uh-oh.

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let's just break off the community into individual zones of security, that way we can talk about our back yards and not offend anyone else.

Think of how more productive the discussion of ri geography could be. This idea has legs.

You know, a little negative trending and I may only get the best storm I've had in 7 years, not a decade. It's going to be hard to sled with my kid while I'm sobbing, but I'll try.

27 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

Solid map. 

I'd love that, I just ... I've seen things. I don't know if I can ever learn to love again.

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I mean at this point if the Euro stays on point at 12z, then you just start mostly ignoring the other output unless you see really see drastic changes at 500mb and 700mb. @Ginx snewx has stressed this and I believe this too.  It's just so UNUSUAL for this type of disagreement this close in, but then again, this is an very anomalous setup, so maybe resolution isn't on your side in this scenario...  also, anything that NCEP is running with an FV3 core doesn't seem to be getting a good handle on this.  Something for them study after the storm if the Euro/NAM solution holds up.

I feel like every storm we talk about how unusual it is that there's disagreement. I think there is just a phenomena where the more specific the expected result seems to become defined, the more variance there appears to be. We have far more consensus now than yesterday, and so on.

It's most sensible for those on the edges, as always.

Shoot for the stars. If you fail, you'll still... post frothing rage, righteously indignant at the injustice of it all!

I forgot how the phrase goes.

I've been thinking 9 inches in my back yard for days. That'd be top 5 in my time here. I know that wouldn't raise an eyebrow elsewhere. Any more is gravy. I know plenty of guidance shows more. Once bitten, twice shy.

The drifts are going to be epic.

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I do not being tired. I function so well on 7-8 hours of sleep. Less than that and it’s heavy , sleepy eyes . No thanks 

Fully agreed there. It's the hours before 9am I've never really cared for.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Went to bed at 8:50. Up at 4:00.

I've got young kids and I'm irrationally angry that someone is intentionally living a lifestyle that I'm forced into against my will.

2 hours ago, joey2002 said:

Could look a lot like the Juno band 

I posted the same yesterday. I'm expecting Juno like results here, with some transient good stuff on the way in and out but during the height of it, subsidence. Good, but not great... Which might be as good as it gets here, bar a wonkier setup. Classic setups, traditional results.

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

this map just looks like "find the slantsticker" to me

To be fair it was impossible to measure that storm very accurately with the wind. The drifting was nuts.

I'm expecting something like 2015 here. This kind of screw look Imby, with wider general spread.

I want the kid to see a proper snowstorm. He will see bits of one of the best. That's the best you're going to do down here.

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

of course there will be banding. has the nam nailed it already? maybe

It's not just in the nam.

Honestly I've never seen a nor'easter not give me less than everywhere else due to banding on the ri/ct border and the core action north and east. It's kindof just the look. Newport is for gold digging second wives in the summer and subsidence in the winter.

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

we are taking one NAM run very literally

The banding features are there in every storm.

First I track whether the storm is actually coming. Once there is consensus on that I turn to the question of how it's going to screw me. 

This one is going to screw me in a fairly unoriginal way, it looks like. But, it's so enormous I'll still end up with plowable.

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s oscillating around se Mass mostly. This run has it in western RI and eastern CT

Gee I wonder where it will end up. I just can't imagine.

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A fun 6hrs right there.

Not for me. Quelle surprise.

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’ve always thought that RI and parts of SE CT can be in a bit of a hole from the massive amount of on-shore convergence and lift in SE Mass.  Speed convergence from sea to land, coastal front, just massive pile up of air that rises in SE Mass and then a sinking air couplet past that lift into RI or even adjacent CT.  Almost like a mini-standing wave like you’d see in orographics.

Not saying it happens always or whatever, but in a fluid atmosphere one can envision that sort of monster low level lift in SE Mass having a ying to its yang downstream.

Then further west of that you get into mid-level lifting/banding.

I always thought part of this effect was also ocean enhanced snow in a typical noreaster always enhancing rates to the north and east, then subsiding into the bay. Feel free to dispel this hackish bullshittery.