NeonPeon

It's a good thing this thing just simply doesn't have much time to work with. The rate at which it recovered intensity is impressive. 

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Looking at Cuba stats.  In 2015, 11.2 million people lived in Cuba.  In 2025, it was 10.9 million people.  I guess people don't like communism so much. 

Japan, Portugal, Poland, Croatia... the list goes on and on. Plenty of places have declining population. Even American holdings like Puerto Rico.

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looks like the track has been deflected towards the ENE and the core is heading for Gitmo. It is also visibly accelerating now, will probably make landfall in Cuba within 3-4 hours. 

As bad as that was for western and central Jamaica, can you imagine the carnage if the core had moved across Kingston and that part of the country? 

The track certainly could have been worse, if the intensity actually could not have been any worse.

The other thing jamaica escaped was the stall and turn to the north occurring close enough to cause a longer duration heavy rain event. For a time 40+ inches were on the table in the east.

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

She's looking like that ex that suddenly appears at the door while you've already cleared a 12 pack. Gorgeous, dangerous, ready for another round

A little worse for wear too after she ran through Jamaica?

Just now, cbmclean said:

What is the physical basis for a hurricane wind of 190 mph being significantly less destructive than a tornado wind of 190 mph?

Straight line winds.

2 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Wilma is the most intense at 882mb. Unless we're just talking about wind speed then it's pretty much tied with her at 185mph

Right, but it was unremarkably strong at landfall.

Just now, beanskip said:

Melissa hasn't made any eastward progress (per satellite) for the last 90 minutes. 

It looks rather like the eye is oscillating within the storm. The bulk of the storm is still making eastward progress.

Just now, Jefflaw77 said:

Yea the stories out of such a resort are going to be nuts

The overarching story there is "we are contributorily negligent." This thing was well forecast. 

Just now, Jefflaw77 said:

Those poor people in the direct path have no idea what’s about to happen..

Many will do, as this was very well forecasted.

What has always fascinated me about hurricanes is the combination of unbelievable strength and fragility. This one was sure to be devastating when land falling but on several occasions I thought it was definitely going to at least temporarily weaken slightly  and instead several times it has actually just deepened. The long loop of this hurricane is a meandering buzzsaw.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right. I’d argue the tracks earlier into the middle of nowhere may have been best case. Western Jamaica has some pop centers. 

Sure, but it's better than it hitting the eastern side of the island at least, both in terms of landslide risks and the population. Tourist areas also will rebuild, while no one will invest funds to address the abject destruction of slums in and around kingston.

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

8 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Also, asymmetry can happen in Category 5’s when they start to feel friction with the coast. 

The trough is also moving into influence which can begin to affect symmetry and convection on the periphery of the TC, including the outflow channela. Otherwise, Melissa's core is about as textbook as it gets for a powerful Atlantic Caribbean hurricane. Current appearance kind of reminds me of Matthew.

I think it's more the latter, yeah you can see part of the outflow racing off to the northeast. As the whole storm turns it'll reorient, but if the coastal interaction happens before it can wrap the convection around more, I don't see how it isn't currently at around its peak strength, which is impressive enough.

2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

No, recon hunter data confirms no ERC is ongoing or imminent. What is happening to cause the asymmetry is deep convection firing. Melissa is undergoing another RI process. We just happen to have recon hunters inside the storm this time.

It's already at 160mph. It's some ask for it to rapidly intensity from there!

Esp when it is looking less symmetrical.

First appearance of any asymmetry in a while on ir. Deeper convection away from eyewall in ne quadrant. Imagining this is an ewr beginning? Hopefully it can't finish before becoming a slightly larger windfield version of the same beast we just saw.

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Congrats to all on the 2-4”, lollis to 6”.

I think my total rainfall in may will exceed my total snowfall for the season. 

I repointed part of the basement. 

Expecting as much as 4 inches of rain today. What a fun stress test.

This has been a remarkably wet May. Ive been waiting and waiting to paint the house, and it will not get dry. It's going to wait till June at this rate.

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

All these days of clouds just to quite possibly not even get half an inch of rain is infuriating. 

We can switch next time said the man with a fieldstone basement. Almost three inches this am, mostly in an hour and a half. 

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wont the grass green ?

Mild drought here. Though this soaking will do a lot of work.

Crocuses blooming, even the shadiest banks almost gone.

We're leaving an awful winter and heading into the interminable series of false dawn that is coastal spring.

Hurray?

Robins strutting all over the park. Sun feeling properly warm. Almost no snow left. False dawns mud and fog till June. Was it too much to ask for a single significant snowfall?

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Looking forward to picking up the thawed out dog turds glistening in the early spring drizzle with overcast skies and temps in the mid 40s. 

Ah yes, March to June. 

Add interminable fog and you've captured the joy of spring here.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, they haven't...at least not by 1991-2020 standards.

They have in my back yard against a longer mean. A half a degree colder in jan, almost bang on in February. Unusually high wind-chill though. 

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms.

On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here. 

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s funny how the inaccuracy of modeling is almost always from something great to nothing. I’m not saying positive busts don’t happen, it’s just so rare and it’s not like you go from no storm to a blizzard. It’s more like oh wow I got 8” instead of 5”. More commonly though we will see a massive storm on modeling and it fades to nothing. Why doesnt it ever go the other way? I’m sure if we were all being surprised by positive bust storms on the regular we wouldn’t be as hard on the models. Alas, it’s ALWAYS a let down, bring back surprise storms and positive busts. 

It does happen, I think you've got a lot of confirmation bias here, in that we tend to remember negative outcomes.

I've gone from no winter weather advisory to 13 inches once. Most negative busts I've had have been within a range of probabilistic forecasts, i.e. if you looked at the 10% outcome for a low snow output, then there you go. 10% isn't particularly unlikely.

I think it's just the better the models get the more distant we look until we are at a point of relatively low confidence. Modeling has never been better, out expectations never higher.

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not the least bit curious...only reason why I am periodically checking in here is for the same reason that I stare at fatal car accidents as I slowly pass by in traffic.

Do you normally roll down the window and say I told you so, then loop round the next exit and repeat? That seems harsh.