NeonPeon

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Congrats to all on the 2-4”, lollis to 6”.

I think my total rainfall in may will exceed my total snowfall for the season. 

I repointed part of the basement. 

Expecting as much as 4 inches of rain today. What a fun stress test.

This has been a remarkably wet May. Ive been waiting and waiting to paint the house, and it will not get dry. It's going to wait till June at this rate.

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

All these days of clouds just to quite possibly not even get half an inch of rain is infuriating. 

We can switch next time said the man with a fieldstone basement. Almost three inches this am, mostly in an hour and a half. 

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wont the grass green ?

Mild drought here. Though this soaking will do a lot of work.

Crocuses blooming, even the shadiest banks almost gone.

We're leaving an awful winter and heading into the interminable series of false dawn that is coastal spring.

Hurray?

Robins strutting all over the park. Sun feeling properly warm. Almost no snow left. False dawns mud and fog till June. Was it too much to ask for a single significant snowfall?

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Looking forward to picking up the thawed out dog turds glistening in the early spring drizzle with overcast skies and temps in the mid 40s. 

Ah yes, March to June. 

Add interminable fog and you've captured the joy of spring here.

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, they haven't...at least not by 1991-2020 standards.

They have in my back yard against a longer mean. A half a degree colder in jan, almost bang on in February. Unusually high wind-chill though. 

The temps here have been just about average, which is to say mean temps have been 3 to 4 degrees above what they've been the last five years. To hear people though, we are deep in an arctic tundra. There's definitely recency bias comparing to abnormal warmth but it also does feel cold, this is because it has been a remarkably windy winter, especially for one that hasn't really had any notable storms.

On that front... This has been yet another atrocious winter for snow. With little to hope for in the forecast here and approaching March... This could be the third year in a row of single digit snowfall here. 

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s funny how the inaccuracy of modeling is almost always from something great to nothing. I’m not saying positive busts don’t happen, it’s just so rare and it’s not like you go from no storm to a blizzard. It’s more like oh wow I got 8” instead of 5”. More commonly though we will see a massive storm on modeling and it fades to nothing. Why doesnt it ever go the other way? I’m sure if we were all being surprised by positive bust storms on the regular we wouldn’t be as hard on the models. Alas, it’s ALWAYS a let down, bring back surprise storms and positive busts. 

It does happen, I think you've got a lot of confirmation bias here, in that we tend to remember negative outcomes.

I've gone from no winter weather advisory to 13 inches once. Most negative busts I've had have been within a range of probabilistic forecasts, i.e. if you looked at the 10% outcome for a low snow output, then there you go. 10% isn't particularly unlikely.

I think it's just the better the models get the more distant we look until we are at a point of relatively low confidence. Modeling has never been better, out expectations never higher.

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not the least bit curious...only reason why I am periodically checking in here is for the same reason that I stare at fatal car accidents as I slowly pass by in traffic.

Do you normally roll down the window and say I told you so, then loop round the next exit and repeat? That seems harsh.

We don't need a miracle, just ticks in the other direction.

It'd have to stop ticking in the other direction first though. 

Icon follows the trend. Whiff.

If you live in se new england, you'd be an idiot to not continue a watching brief.

Season is almost over for us. There's still a decent chance.

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Never fails ...either too far north or south. This how a locale finishes safely below average for 7 consecutive seasons.

 

Or in the later tuck scenarios, you could be in a comma while I put myself in a coma. 

This is some seriously paranoid detail to be looking into at this phase.

I'm just going big picture. Is storm? Yes? Good. 

I'll find out exactly how I get screwed in good time, but for me, there isn't much time left. We don't get much snow in March down here. That paltry number you are circling would double my snow for the year. Yeah, it would annoy me, just as Juno did. But these noreasters are proper storms. That's always an actual experience.

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have.

New Orleans got more snow in one day than I've had this season to date.

49 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Top of the table in the EPL and the Champions League. 

It was fun to be top of all the leagues, but now that the knockouts have started we can't really say that anymore. I mean, sure, fill your boots, but still.

I only need the league. And it's "the league" not the EPL... I feel dirty even typing it. 

There's nothing for me for these next couple systems. It's all about that chance at a bomb in hallucination range.

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This pic doesn’t really do justice to how thick the fog is...

You call that fog? Hahaha.

7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Radar looks kinda ok? 

It looks great if you are a marine mammal.

It's actually this exact type of setup that we do well with from time to time, it's consolidating into a nice band. It's just mostly over water. Westerly/new london looks good.

Finally began snowing. Death band incoming. 1 inch? A few more of these and I'll be in double digits this year. 

Sorry, getting greedy.

I wish the radar actually looked like that.

Still dry here, should start soon though. I'll take a refresher. I totally missed the last snow. Entire family got the flu, what an ordeal.

2 minutes ago, superETA said:

West Warwick RI reporting - a little under an inch has accumulated so far. 

Blob over orient point, blob at the northern ri border, a rare case where the screw hole isn't here. Though it isn't exactly a hole since the entire thing is too fast and ragged.

2 so far, always interesting when there's little wind. 

Not bad at all, it's just all moving too fast. If this was slower there would be even more have and have nots though, I'd guess. The best stuff down this way is falling in the sound so far and just offshore.

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That guy is horrible..don’t buy the nonsense. 

Wasn't the idea of dry slotting making local qpf forecasting moderately difficult something raised days ago in the actual forecast discussion by box. What is new about this?

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets say even if it's brief sleet, you're going to get good snows. 

The box forecast has a very typical gradient of doubling snow from Newport proper to about 10 miles north of here, and that's typical. I'll still take it, but when these things show themselves across models, my experience is that my microclimate underperforms vs over performs. The bay likes to warm. I need any ptype issues out to block island to not be worried, more robust antecedent cold, and much more dynamic powerful systems than this.