NeonPeon

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone points south of MHT is in great shape.

There are about 1/4 of members showing the typical p-type issues for extreme SE/coastal folks. 

2 minutes ago, mcap77 said:

I hope you folks in SNE cash in on this, but must admit part of me wants to see the epic melts if this trends north and CNE/NNE jacks

Anyone who hasn't learned their lesson anywhere near the coast has themselves to blame at this point. We are nowhere near close enough to have much confidence. 

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For once trends are favorable as we get close 

Is this really getting close? It's still not within a window of much confidence for this sort of detail, surely.

Well, I've got about 2.5 inches on the season. 

I'm also going skating on the pond tomorrow. Isn't possible in Newport that frequently.

The glass isn't close to even being half full, but at least there's some ice in there, I guess was the point.

In lieu of checking the models short to medium term, I need only check the level of disharmony on this forum. You're real time savers.

50 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

That’s a pretty nice band just south of RI. Would be a nice time to be on the block island ferry.

Tickled Newport for a while. Covered everything up. I'll dig myself out later when the trees stop falling down. 

1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Not a good run south of the Pike imo

Of course it isn't. Snow washed away after flips is awful. Swfe is a dirty word in these dirty southern parts.

Tomorrow has trended from almost nothing to completely nothing. 

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the climate is definitely warming...no doubt. But on top if that the multi-decadal pattern has been tilted against the east coast. They have been doing just fine out west, despite CC....and again, I get the CC predisposing is to MC forcing argument, but I am not ready to accept that as a permeant change, just as I wasn't the GOA "warm blob" phenomenon that we benefited from last decade. 

The great plains and northeast have been the places most warmed in winter, and it is untested waters as to whether that is a pattern that continues, but in general it makes some sense that the colder places warm the most. Let's say it doesn't though, even those places have warmed, and we'll end up in the same place regardless, further down the line, if it's more pattern-driven.

I think there's obviously scope for infrequent blockbuster storms, and even more than normal snow in the interior, due to climate change, in the right set ups, but that is just going to lead to a monumental view of history, wherein big events tend to colour perspectives. The coast is different though. If you're already in a spot that is kind of liminal for snow, and inexorably average temperatures increase, you're just going to see less snow, and more subtly, you'll have a lot less time feeling like winter. 

I know the winter of the last few years, I grew up in it when I was young. It feels like a winter in the north of england. It is cold but not really, it is very wet and rainy. You're more likely to flood. It doesn't snow usually, but it can. You keep a sled in your basement that you don't use, because one day you might get to use it. Your parents remember using it more. The ponds don't freeze.

There has been a lot of consistency on this non-event event. Something to check the confirmation bias. I guess it's not a very complicated system though.

I want to have enough snow to go sledding with the kids first thing saturday morning. We are on the line of that being possible... you need a decent amount with fluff. Small accumulations and big stakes for the kids. There are more sleds in my basement than we have had inches of snow this season. 

It isn't analogous in set up or in ceiling, but these tight-gradient latitude dealies fighting dry air always remind me of the 2015 anafrontal event. No advisory given, a couple inches forecast, into 13" here. At the end of it it was snowing hard and the sky was bifurcated, half blue bird sky, half cats paws falling. As uneventful as that will have been for virtually everyone else, it was my favorite event as an adult ever, just because it showed how weather can confound even far more advanced forecasting.

It also made me pay more attention to dozens of other events subsequently that ultimately reverted to the mean and came to absolutely nothing! This could well be that.

Now, that event could have been just offshore as they often are. One difference also is there wasn't much complicated going on there, it was just "where does this stream of moisture go," here there's a suggestion of development in points east (mostly on the fishes) and there is suppression favoring points sw in connecticut. 

I'm watching it - what else am I going to do? This is a window, there won't be many others at the coast.

1.5 inches and hearing the pings. Up to 2 for the season. It's beautiful out.

It's a nice feeling going to bed to flakes and there still being snow in the morning. It'll wash away, of course, but a couple inches will quadruple what I've had so far.

I'll take anything.

1 hour ago, WeatherX said:

Gotta get the kick in the stick with our snow, can’t have it all.


.

Or indeed, anything, on the coast.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's disgusting 

If El nino isn't going to help us then what ?

It's not going to get better, on average, is it? 

Last year was Newports 4th worst year on record for snowfall. Any significant event and you beat it. That's the thing: it's the hope that kills you. 

Not as unfortunate as rain and a half inch of snow followed by rain. Count your dendrites, I mean, blessings.

What a rollercoaster it has been.  I've had rain, rain mixed with skeet, rain mixed with snow, and in all different percentages. It's a visual feast, a folk art poem to New England winter. 

16 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

There’s a 25% chance this may over-perform. It’s happens for us once in a while lol…

It's the hope that kills you.

Nice light snow. Kindof the routine here, a lick of snow on the front end into rain, and then underperforming snow on the back end.

Quote

...a model for everyone out there.

I can't find anything that would scratch my itch.

Will I get no accumulating snow, or 2 inches of slush, good lord the options are dizzying.

I'm expecting a bit of slush on the hedge, rain and white rain.

It's the hope that kills you. That would be a half foot of paste imby and it ain't happening.

Is Lee still ingesting dry air? It still seems intent on trying to make a small eye, within a much larger circulation, but it can't do that or close the enormous eye wall either. The outflow looks fantastic, and it doesn't look that dry on the water vapor but it can't seem to fix the banding. 

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

“Meteorologists”


.

Tweetiorologists.

18 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

doesn’t look anything like a cat 5

maybe mid - high 3 at best 

Well, because it isn't anymore, just like it was a cat 3 when it was a cat 1.  It doesn't really much matter at this point does it?

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Based on recon and the fact this thing is still going to town, I think it’s a given we’ve just witnessed the most insane rate of RI in Atlantic history 

The structure of this hurricane always looked precocious. It had better outflow as a tropical storm than some hurricanes, and it always had symmetry as a whole, even if it hadn't developed symmetry at its center. Sure, part of it was that it's far away so the noted strength of the storm lagged behind the observable reality, but even so, it seemed to have zero growing pains at all. It went through the gears and skipped some. 

Usually it's structural organization that slows ri down, then once that is sorted, it takes off. This thing was cooking with gas immediately. The way that it put up towers and wrapped around from spiral to donut in hours was ludicrous.

6 hours ago, BrianW said:

Its time.  I'm probably 10 days away from my first cut.

 

There's still time to plant something in that green desert of yours. A tree perhaps? Anything?