NeonPeon

3 minutes ago, skierinvermont said:

It's odd, none of the forecast maps I've seen show the snow hole in SE CT and SW RI that almost all the computer runs show. With N winds downsloping and climo it seems likely

No one is ever arsed to show it in detail. People who live around the bay can apply the normal modifier. So many banding signatures show what always happens, better stuff northeast and better stuff west. In a very big storm, it gets enough goods around anyway.

Im very dubious on a foot or more here, but that's the official forecast. 

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best run for the queens yet

Lol, look at the antibullseye. Accurate 

If it was juno redux, I would welcome it. Even though we got a relative min as usual, it was impossible to know precisely what we got anyway, there was so much drifring. There were drifts over the fences and bare grass. I skiied to a friend's 2 miles away and brought Glenlivet with me. It was a simpler time. 

Just now, WeatherWilly said:

Guys, I've thought about it and I've decided to propose to the Euro.

It's civil partnership. Europeans don't get married. What is this, 1950…?

1 minute ago, msg112469 said:

Maybe. I got up this morning and looked back around 8-10 pages and nothing. It's fine. I got an actual "real" answer from two other people in the forum. Before you decided to chime in. Thanks again. Lol!

I think you are misunderstanding.

Anyhow. Yes. Many of these depictions are a blizzard in a few coastal places. Some could be a blizzard with some coastal flooding.

11 minutes ago, msg112469 said:

There hasn't been much talk about the winds during the past 6-9 hours. Aside for the heavy snow amounts, the wind should be the focus with this one. No?

You are describing a james-shaped hole here constituting about a hundred mentions of  the wind and the word blizzard. Rip.

Gfs ticked west... The chief outlier at this point. Hopefully we can get that into some sort of consensus today, so that a 0-2 feet forecast isn't floating around in the ether for half of new England.

4 hours ago, Patrick-02540 said:

This will verify for the simple reason that it has the RI screw hole. 

  

When has a ri screw hole ever been centered over the rocky mountains of RI. When we get the mesos, the hole will start to resolve and then you can pick the best solution from whoever shows the correct relative min for me.

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

From a public safety perspective, it's dangerous when your country's model can't produce a reasonable forecast inside 72 hours.

It's literally an all-or-nothing game right now for NYC and friends.

How do you know it's not reasonable. It seems plausible.

196 pages and things are getting toxic.

My prediction? Pain.

Ugh. Read it and weep.

Weenies have the fear.

Going from 14" verbatim to 1" has to be one of the biggest swings I've ever seen. Hilarious.

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

I mean, this is ICON-level inconsistency.

What's several hundred miles between friends?

This NAM is an almost poetic account of everything that could go perfectly wrong with something pretty good.

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm done tracking anything until 5 days out and every model shows similar outcomes.

Ah, but how will you know those conditions are met without tracking?

The GFS still shows a freakish bomb. I am not sure the details (strange oscillation and lobed low) is that convincing.

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Don't let the 84hr NAM spook you. I'm sure GFS is about to drop a turd in the western camp punchbowl and go further east.

I'm not spooked, there's a great storm brewing that seems increasingly likely to do well for all. Its sensible impacts here are almost certainly going to be less than everywhere else, due to climo. I've yet to see a nor'easter not favor other areas, and I've been here for more than a decade now.

As to the cape being nervous? They know the deal, as do I, for any storm, unless they are unhinged. Mixing is often a threat that requires tracking till the last minute. They aren't going to turn on being nervous or not at 3 days out. They are nervous till the flakes fall, if they are weenies at all.

Just now, SnowEMass said:

Better the NAM than nobody lol

This is how you get an STD.

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It sounds like all of your mental corrections bring the best snows right over your house. Helpful, for sure. LOL

And you're immune to this how, exactly?

You're someone on the interior joyfully hoping that the cape rains so that you get your snow. Tale as old as time. Well, not really, since the advent of publicly consumable computer modeling, anyway.

Just now, Zeus said:

I believe he may have been suggesting one to three inches of liquid equivalent precipitation.

Ah. I was just teasing anyway. I thought he meant 1-3', which would be plausible at that amount of liquid with good cold and perhaps not too much wind aloft in the interior?

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Somebody will get into a subby zone.

Me.

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

How so?

I'm not convinced I'll get a foot, but even the most ardent pessimists will hope for more than 1-3"

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This will drop 1-3" when all said and done for most.

I think you may be slightly conservative.

23 minutes ago, drstuess said:

Coastal RI sNOw hole

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We know where that snow hole would actually set up.