EastonSN+

Is phase 6 good for us?

I may be incorrect in coupling the two, but wouldn't a SSW event create a NEGATIVE AO? Looks to go sharply positive around the 1st. PNA and NAO look good 

Wth EPO not looking good. NAO deeply negative out of nowhere. PNA looking better down the road. Mixed signals.

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

I lived in Middletown, DE at the time...I measured between 24-28 inches for this storm and most of it was gone by Christmas.....

You can tell the Bridgeport report carved out in SW CT. West and east of it more snow.

Absolutely LOVE the blizzard on FV3. Of course it just for entertainment purposes.

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That kid is the most skilled seasonal forecaster that I have ever seen....I'll bet he even has seasonal NAO forecasting largely figured out.

Between Isotherm and Don we have 2 of the absolute best in the business. They have the same overall view of the winter save a couple nuances.

43 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Think it's in the main

Correct the main thread.

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree overall with Tip. I think his point has merit. It’s also why the CPC changed some of the former ENSO years with the new SST climo. However, that is misleading because it’s quite possible that a cooler overall Earth acted as we think it should when anomalies are presented. So what was a moderate niño back then, is now weak....however it probably acted like a moderate niño. So to look back and say so and so year was a weak niño is not really fair imo. 

 

Anyways what is happening now is totally inteaseaosnal. Mjo is destructively interfering. I have to think that changes in January?

Great post by Isotherm. He does believe it dies out.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models have the MJO stalling in phase 5 which is mild this time of year. The timing of a shift to colder is still uncertain at this point. Last December at this time we were heading for the coldest 8-1 phases. That’s why the last week of December was so cold.

The good news for today is the turn to the COD which was not present before. 

2 hours ago, tim said:

..even donsutherland1 is wavering a bit in the LR..

 

I didn't take Don's comments as wavering at all, and he has not amended his winter forecast for above average snowfall.

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. I wonder if guidance was too quick on moving it east. That happens. 

I believe part of the positive winter forecasts focused on the fact that the MJO was cycling through the positive phases into the COD. I hope this was not a pattern shift. The popular belief seems to be "delayed not denied"

This is killing us

Boo

I know I am repeating myself, however the well respected METS and bloggers have not amended their winter outlooks for an above average snowfall winter. Therefore I would take any long range model output which is unfavorable as noise at this point. 

I like the NEMO replication on the 6z FV3 GFS

Just now, Juliancolton said:

County roads up here are packed with sand and salt. Long live the human over-correction tendency.

Maybe they are ahead of us in the winter forecast whereas they see the rest of the winter as snowless, so they are trying to unload.  JK

Not liking the NAO and PNA direction long range.

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t want to live NYC south thru end of month 

It seems like gradient patterns set up with long island sound as the barrier. I often wondered why that is.

The MJO looks to "stall" in a warm phase per below. Is this possible? AO and NAO look good, but the PNA looks to move negative in the longer range.

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

BDL broke the record from 77-78 in 93-94; record breaking winter in interior CT that year.  Then only two years later we broke that record too with 95-96.  

Yeah 95 96 was incredible for all. 92 inches in SW CT.

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are you sure about that?*  I thought that was a big snow winter, followed by a dog in 94-95, then the historic 95-96.

*Be careful about using BDR's measurements.  For many years they simply took the water equivalent and multiplied by 10.

Yeah. 93 94 was frigid but we ended up getting a lot of ice storms in lieu of snow. 

I NEVER use BDR, people think we have a 25 to 30 snowfall range due to that POS reporting station.

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ORH had over a 100", too....we were in a screw zone.

We only had 52 in SW coastal CT, but the cold was impressive!

10 hours ago, sferic said:

Got it ! Thanks so much !

Just FYI the snow maps are waaayy off for the storms.

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

That’s high impact.  RDU averages 4 inches per year.

They got 22 (Cary) in 2000. Literally shut down schools for 1 full week. My sister said they did not plow main road for 3 days.

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's what makes this case of suppression so unusual. The last time Raleigh had a 6"+ event in December was the Boxing Day Blizzard in 2010. As we know, record amounts came right up along the coast through our area.

Hopefully the next storm is less suppressed. Also hopefully before January to avoid a December shut out.