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CapturedNature

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    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    Greening and growing at 1k in the woods but apparently Chernobyl conditions along the E shore in burbs of BOS

     

    04g5XKy.jpgUgqjtN1.jpg

    If not tomorrow, that forsythia will probably bloom on Tuesday or Wednesday when the skies clear.  Mine are slightly behind that but you run warmer than I do on average.  2012 bloomed on March 24th so you're running about a 7-8 days later than 2012.   April 18th is the average date since 2002.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

    Does anyone know what the time period used is for the Daily Climate Reports? Is it 12:00  AM- 11:59 PM local time? 

    For the majors?  I believe so.  Most Coops though are 7a-7a.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    Amazing how green things are getting and what is growing. Even here forsythia are about to pop and already have in valley. Crazy early for all this. Ginx wants pics he got em

    My forsythia are certainly not about to pop.  The cooler weather the next few days will slow that process.  I commented the other day that I saw a single forsythia in full bloom but other forsythia's on the same street didn't even have buds, just like mine.  I think those are different cultivars.  I'm still planning on going by the same forsythia bushes that I've been using for nearly 20 years to keep things relative and they are not about to pop.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Well... I didn't say 'average' in terms of total - but yeah, 10 years

    Correct, by you did say 7 out of 10 have been in March and my date is well into April which prompted my question wondering if the cultivar that you have is the same one I saw in bloom yesterday.  Nothing else is even close here so yeah, just wondering or making an interesting observation.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    In the last 10 years I've owned this property I've seen March 'sythia buds 7 times

    It's interesting that your average bloom date is in March.  I was driving through one street and I was shocked to see one in the valley that had flowers yesterday.  The thing is that none of the others in the area did or even had bud swelling.  It's either an outlier or a different cultivar from everything else in the area.  My average bloom time since 2002 is 4/18 so I'm wondering if you have the same cultivar.  Do other forsythias in the area bloom at the same time?

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    From mid week into weekend it’s 65-70 next week. Even if Sunday and Monday come out normal. We’ll add to it next week 

    Why would you think that they are cumulative?

    Let's say you have 10 days that are +10 departure.  That's an average of +10.  If the next 5 are 0, you now have 15 days or 100/15 which is now +6.  If you have another 10 days of +10 you now have 25 days or 200/25 which is 8.  Add in another 5 days at 0 and you have 30 days or 200/30 and an average temp of +6.6.  So even if most of the month is +10 which as Will stated is hard to maintain, you're not averaging +10 for the month to make it warmer than 2012.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

    Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all...  

    Here's 2012 March, (  https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203):  ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. 

     

    Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9

    Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. eh hm... And that's a cold source at low levels (off-set by equinotical sun angles). After that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously...  

    Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise. 

    I calculate something I call the Departure from Normal Index.  It's basically accumulation of the daily departures but it allows you to see how anomalous a month is.  The highest or lowest peaks are #1 or 2 in their respective months.  You can see that March 2012 was a standout.  It should be interesting to see how this month racks up when all is said and done.

    DeparturefromNormalIndex.png

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    Sat look like 50ish. Sunday likely cooler than normal 40-45. Then retorch next week with 60’s near 70 middle/ end of week

    Good luck with hitting 50° at your place on Saturday.  My point is that every day is not going to be a massive departure like the past couple of days.  As it stands I'm currently at #7 so this month if we're counting our chickens on the 11th needs to go through a lot of cousins to reach sisterhood.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

    They laughed when we said #2. Sister of 2012. They aren’t laughing anymore. Or posting 

    When I look at my top 10 warmest March's, 2012 is on top of course but the next 4 aren't even 2002.  2010, 2000, 2016 and 1991 all come next.  This week has had a few warm days but things look more normal by this weekend.

    March 2020 disc/obs

    in New England

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

    I can take some pictures of the area around the office today in Stamford if it's needed. There is a tree now with little dark red buds. There's no doubt we'll be ahead of schedule by several weeks this year.

    Yes, we are a few weeks ahead of where we normally are.  The earliest my forsythia's have been in bloom is 3/24 in 2012 and 3/31 in 2002.  My average date is 4/18 so when they bloom we'll know how far we are ahead.  That's the only date I track on my weather record but I also have records from my maple sugaring.  I always tap the weekend after valentines day and my season ends at the end of March.  I'm still collecting sap and this weekend looks like we'll have ideal weather (40s/20s) for several days so I'll be collecting into next week and that also points to us being about 1-2 weeks ahead of where we normally are.

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