caviman2201

Not sure if anyone else noticed this, but PivotalWeather has added soundings for both the CMC and Euro (as well as all the others) if you pay the $7 month.  Pretty good deal. I haven't seen Euro soundings anywhere else.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You have somehow avoided a flush hit and that’s kinda frustrating...I do get that everything has to be in perspective and given the amazingly good pattern you could easily have 10” more with some luck, but still you’re only like 4” from going above climo (I’m about 8) and that’s a very likely number to reach given the look ahead. So it’s not been that bad. 

I wish I was that close to climo... BWI region has had it much worse than NoVA this year, so... perspective.  I think BWI climo is 18" and we've seen around 7-8". Not sure what their official tally is at this point.

Total GFS Precip for both waves... all snow ~ north of Rt. 50

48 minutes ago, mappy said:

I am a ma'am, thank you very much. 

On a serious note: LWX may post them later today. 

I couldn't resist... 

Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h, ideally worrying about suppression 

If we get that last second tick north that we've seen every storm now, DC and Baltimore will be in the best stuff. Hopefully we can get it one more time

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow at the GFS. Solid event for DC and Balt.

If only I had any faith in the models at this point. I think I've had 2-3ft of modeled snow within 48h of onset this winter and have only 6" to show for it. Baltimore has been getting Lucy'd pretty hard this year

What did Baltimore do to anger the snow gods this year? This is pathetic.

Mostly Rain. 36/30. Maybe a quarter inch of wet slop on grass

41/21 Glen Burnie

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

If you want them to lie to you then maybe. But if you actually keep track of their calls they’re a thousand times better than most. 

We're 24h from onset. I want them as meteorologists to make a forecast of a range of snowfall without a bunch of caveats and let the chips fall where they may. I'm happy to read all the disco/explanation but make a call on a map. Sorry if that's asking too much.

With that I'm going to let it drop.

Lol people rag on CWG's 1-20" boom/bust/high/medium/low confidence forecasts every day on this forum and I'm getting the business from an account that posts once a decade over my first and only jab at them. 

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Exactly. They’re just giving the truth. 

Except they're supposed to tell me something I don't know by looking at the spread on TT...

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie looks east of majority of guidance 

Quickly becoming the minority here in the 11th hour. We seem to keep having storms trend worse in the homestretch.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So how far north does it come? Still 48 hours out. I say more.

I would take the 12z NAM verbatim. Let us flatlanders get one

Does anyone else struggle in this timerange (before NWS puts out any watches/warnings, but close enough to feel comfortable that it is going to snow some) with telling friends/family/wife/kids about the possible snow for fear of jinxing it? I feel like every time as soon as I say something to the family that's when the models start trending to screw us.

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

precip panels are out.  It is pretty far NW of 12z but not a huge hit or anything.  Best precip stays southeast of 95 but there is a little stripe of decent precip that seems to develop along and just NW of 95 also.  Remember 12z was totally dry and way SE so its the trend.  Can't tell details until the upper level and qpf maps come out later but it was an improvement over 12z.  These things bounce around a little and it's hard to see the longer term trends from any one run.  If 12z continues to shift southeast the more amplified idea might be in trouble...but a single run (which isn't even totally out yet) can't establish a trend.  

Maybe we flatlanders can get one this year... it wouldn't be the worst thing ever for it to not be a fall line special

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Just cause we moved the RGEM to the naughty list doesn't mean we should put the Sref back on the nice list.

I don't know why you guys are giving rgem such a hard time... I got well over 10% of it's advertised short range totals. Beats the heck out of dropping dirt into the breeze.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Honestly I think that’s quite possible. Good news here is that it’s only 72hrs away and there’s definitely fast flow, so hopefully not TOO far NW. @psuhoffman should be pretty stoked. I’d wager more on a typical fall line type of boundary here in snow amounts than a jackpot in southern MD.

Its been that way all season. The snowfall gradient on the seasonal map is very telling. I know a lot of the forum is feeling pretty good right now but it has been very painful E of 95 this year.

North trend right up to gametime for NYC jack?

Getting some legit freezing rain accretion in Glen Burnie right now.... 29/27

Everything is glazed

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

NAM looks substantially better for northern MD and southern PA tomorrow 18z.

We just have to hope it's honing in on what the globals have been saying all day

Does anyone else make a special meal on snow days? Apologies if this conversation happened already.

 My wife is making scratch made beef pho (has been all day) and I'm enjoying Talisker 10 smelling the amazingness

Can those gravity waves create lift and cause radar to flare up?

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea that stall and wrapping banding across northern MD for days is great and all...and sometimes it doesn't take much QPF to rack up totals in those bands...fluff...but its risky relying on that...some of that is still 60 hours away and if you take out that last band that wraps through MD really doesn't get a whole lot from the coastal.  

so... assuming its right, what happened? what took us from elated to feeling robbed in 12h? 

"Storm blew its load and occluded by that panel. All the good stuff happens during the deepening phase. By hr 72 it's a tired old man ready for bed."

This is signature material... 

Weather related comment though is it seems like the difference betweeen 4-6 and something more is whether that retrograde is real...