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Everything posted by Physicsteve
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Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
37 degrees per wunderground drizzle per me -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Certainly understand snow is an imby game and i hope the snow makes it as far west as possible and we all cash in. Regardless it’s unfolding now so enjoy this dynamic storm no matter what computer generated numbers you were promised this week. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Agree anything before sunset is a bonus which will likely induce panic and bust accusations. But the good stuff has always been evening and overnight so we gotta wait til then to make any real assessments of performance. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Thanks for the thread and safe travels, @Mikeymac5306. Safe to say you have thread-making duties for the near future. May be a tough one to top though. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Hrrr verbatim looks like a lakehurst jack so Ill take that. 31.3 inches “oh the humanity!” -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
The purple colors in the snow usually mean sleet. This time it’s the upper range of the snow color scale. Deepens then stays sub 970mb as it approaches us and meanders along the coast *chef’s kiss* -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Let’s hope it’s on a hot streak. Period has shown potential along with early March. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
We’re living in the era of bombogenesis and rapid intensification, and all the pieces finally timed up right to allow a winter version. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Who needs Long Island and Boston anyway? -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
Not the first run to resemble a tropical system either. You love to see it. -
Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS
Physicsteve replied to Mikeymac5306's topic in Philadelphia Region
This is one of those cases that will keep us up in the future when the GFS is on an island giving false hope. This time it seems to be real, and it’s been awesome watching everything trend towards it instead of the other way around. Being a Philly sports fan and knowing weather will do what it wants, Im still weary and keeping an eye out for signs of a rug pull, but that’s more reflex than conscious thought. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Gefs? -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Is there a way to infer/determine ratios from soundings? Trying to “self” teach reading these info-laden graphs gotta imagine itll be pretty pasty stuff if it does snow -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yes, intriguing but have to remain skeptic. Models have been all over the place with this one. @Heisy never gave up and also highlighted the small but important details that will make or break this event. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Monmouth/ocean jack. This year is a throwback and hopefully indicative our stretch of ratters and disappointments is changing. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Gotta like that globals and now at least the nam have modeled a sharper NS dive and interaction with the southern energy with a well-timed 50/50ish low. Today will be quite interesting. -
January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential
Physicsteve replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
I still had snow otg from the 6” I got the weekend before, 1/17-18, so getting close to a full month here. It’s been a very picturesque wintery month. eta dogs and small children are still able to walk on top of the snow without falling in as well for the most part. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
The clean up definitely had to be attacked in stages, and even then it was a lot. High schooler across the street is building a fort out of blocks of the stuff, which was what I experienced digging the cars out. Great for igloo making. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Storm signal is there across guidance, but gfs camp keeps troughs and energy too neutral or neg too late, whereas euro products (ai included, notably) all go neg at the perfect time for us, now 2 runs in a row. I know which camp I’d like to be in at this range. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Physicsteve replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Sleet started around noon towards the end of the snowblow with a few fun raindrops mixed in and it’s since been steady sleet with some flurries occasionally trying to mix in. Measured 7.5” but was a bit after the mixing started, so going with 8” snow. Hard to measure sleet but maybe 1/4”-1/3”? -
January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential
Physicsteve replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
4.25” as of 945 -
January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential
Physicsteve replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Heavier echoes inbound about 10 minutes from now, and cc radar looks clean. Let’s thump. -
January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential
Physicsteve replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Don't remember if that’s when they were just hoping or actually progged, but I remember that time being bandied about -
January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential
Physicsteve replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
Yeah that top ‘experimental’ one has me in the helpful 3-9” range. No difference in impacts there… Needs to go back into the lab.
