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Blizzard of 93

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  1. The 6z NAM and recent HRRR bring 1 to 3 for most of CTP, except unfortunately not much in Lancaster.
  2. The 6z GFS did not back down & remains consistent yet again.
  3. The bottom line is the “south” trend continued on most models this evening. The GFS has been very consistent for days around the Harrisburg area.
  4. Lol… here is the 0z Kuchera…. I think @CarlislePaWx will still do quite well if this verified
  5. The trend is the LSV’s friend at 0z Here is the GFS
  6. The 0z FV3 gets Lancaster & York in the game tomorrow.
  7. Maybe we can get 1 more similar bump south to get the Lancaster & York crowd more involved?
  8. Yes, both 0z NAMs had a major improvement for the Harrisburg area and Cumberland, Dauphin & Lebanon counties.
  9. I didn’t think that there were any trees left in Harrisburg after all of the wind storms over the years?!
  10. Here is the 0z HRRR. Over 2 inches of snow in Harrisburg this run @canderson & @Mount Joy Snowman might be able to make their snow angels tomorrow on Front St.
  11. Good points! What I meant as far as “straightforward” just refers to this storm not having a “complicated” secondary low, low transfer or upper low to factor in to this event. The GFS might have a chance tomorrow of coming close to verifying.
  12. According to the handbook in Chapter 2, section 3, paragraph 1…. Hug the model that shows the most snow for your own yard! Yes, I have recently bashed the GFS, especially in the medium & long range. The short range can’t be discounted. I am also giving it credit for consistency with this storm for days.
  13. You said LSV…so I was referring to Harrisburg & Lancaster….not much difference. Lol, I am good with either GFS map at this point!
  14. I still like 2 to 4 of snow for Harrisburg tomorrow. The radar is juiced & the precip should come in like a wall, so as long as rates are moderate to heavy, we should snow. We only need a few hours of good snow to get a few inches!
  15. I agree….this storm is fairly straightforward, do the GFS might be able to handle this one. It has been very consistent with this event.
  16. The 18z GFS 10-1 & Kuchera look VERY close in the LSV….
  17. Here is the 0z Canadian ensemble. Again, 2 to 4 in the LSV
  18. A little late for ensembles, but the 6z GEFS gets 2 to 4 to most of the LSV.
  19. This is full of confidence….lol…they are really covering all of their bases… And the 2 to 4 inches of snow does not match their WWA of 1 to 3 for Harrisburg…. Despite their inconsistency, I tend to agree with this grid forecast of 2 to 4 for the Harrisburg area.
  20. This is CTP’s forecast for tomorrow for Harrisburg: Wednesday Rain and snow before 1pm, then rain, snow, and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then rain after 4pm. High near 37. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  21. I could be mistaken, but I think he has always been in the private sector of meteorology with paying clients.
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