Blizzard of 93

0z GFS delivered for the 19th as well & just missed something more… Snow map only for the 19th…

GFS & Canadian on board for our Tuesday Advisory Eve event chance

0z RGEM is juiced.

Let’s go 2 for 2 !!!

Best Euro run since a few days ago when it was actually the first model to show this storm before it lost it for days. Maybe this will continue juicing up a bit. If not, I’ll gladly take 1-3 or 2-4 on Tuesday.

CTP says welcome back Winter… SYNOPSIS... Winter is poised to make a big comeback through mid January as arctic air invades the area over the next several days. Snow showers and blustery winds will continue through tonight with additional light snow accumulation over the Allegheny Mountains. Snow squalls are possible Sunday morning as arctic air blasts into central PA. A widespread light snow accumulation is possible late Monday night into Tuesday as a storm tracks off the East Coast. Subzero wind chills are forecast over the Alleghenies Sunday night into early Monday morning and again Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Below normal temperatures are forecast into next weekend. Welcome back winter.

Indeed, still nothing too exciting, but best GFS run since early yesterday for Tuesday.

18z ICON is decent for Tuesday

The 18z RGEM would be a decent Advisory event for many of us on Tuesday.

Don’t worry, spin the wheel of NAM, lol! It’s 12z run had the bullseye in northern PA… Where will it land at 0z ? Here is that 12z NAM for reference

18z NAM was good for our southern tier & MD.

12z Euro gives Advisory level snow to parts of the LSV on Tuesday. Lol, that heavier little band looks like it’s giving the finger to Maytown & Palmyra!

12z UKIE for Tuesday still keeps us in the game for an Advisory level event.

12z Ukie

CTP discussion for tomorrow’s squalls… .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... A progged west-southwest flow should keep lake effect snow north of the border through Sunday. However, the passage of a secondary cold front will likely be accompanied by a round of snow showers/squalls Sunday morning. High res models generate up to 150-200 J/KG Sunday morning (esp over and to the east of the Susq Valley during the midday hours), supporting the convective snows. Low level convergence along the front, combined with steep lower tropospheric lapse rates and some cape, argues for the potential of a linear snow squall band traversing the northern counties between 10Z-14Z Sunday across the Western Mtns, and 14-18Z for the Central and Eastern Zones. Will continue to strongly message the potential for these dangerous squalls on Social Media outlets and to our Public Partners. Lingering, light upslope snow could last into Sunday PM over the Alleghenies. However, the focus for much of the region will become gusty winds and an arrival of the coldest air mass of this winter, with wind chills falling below zero by evening over the Allegheny Plateau.

CTP is really ramping up tomorrow’s snow squall potential. This is for Harrisburg. Sunday Occasional flurries with a slight chance of snow showers before 8am, then snow showers between 8am and 3pm, then occasional flurries after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

I was having fun with @canderson typo there, kind of, but you never know what Jerry is up to… This Eagles team has so many issues right now. Lord knows that I am an optimist, but this team lost me this month. It is a “week to week” league & “any given Sunday”…but I don’t have much confidence any longer. It’s shocking just how far they have dropped off in the last month. But, I hope you are right!

No, the “payoff” game will be the Dallas game…lol, but really not lol…

12z GFS means business for the 19th this run. It would fit the advertised pattern.

12z globals for Tuesday. 2 of the 3 give Advisory snow to the LSV.

12z RGEM

12 RGEM for Tuesday… we are still alive for an Advisory level event.

For the punters…. The 12z NAM actually has the best Tuesday snow in northern areas of CTP & has mixing in the LSV… Long way to go!