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superjames1992

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Everything posted by superjames1992

  1. superjames1992
    LOL, if the NW trend doesn't stop, that could be true! It'll be a Big Frosty special!
  2. superjames1992
    I'm sitting here on my beachfront hotel balcony in San Juan listening to the waves and refreshing model runs for a storm which I won't experience affecting a locale (NC) in which I no longer live (granted, my parents do and I go back somewhat often). I'm not sure what this says about me! Meanwhile, I'm becoming more and more jealous, wishing I was there, as modeling trends look better and better for GSO.
  3. superjames1992
    The German model doesn't handle General Winter very well. I'm going to side with the Russian model for winter weather, personally.
  4. superjames1992
    Yeah, the NAM would require switching the max along the I-85 corridor and slashing totals for ENC and RDU. Yikes.
  5. superjames1992
    My amateur Wilkes-inspired call map for NC drawn on my iPad...
  6. superjames1992
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=dwd_icon&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=dwd_icon&stn2=TT850&hh2=066&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054 Looks like you'd be all-snow in southern Wake on the six-hour 850 mb panels, though you just know there's some warm noses at other layers in there ready to bring the taint. Here is the ICON meteogram for RDU:
  7. superjames1992
    That's the truth. Gulf convection and unmodeled, surprise warm noses are the best! The storm on the DWD-ICON is sure something, though it looks like a pretty big outlier right now. I think you're in a decent spot, though.
  8. superjames1992
    I wouldn't think surface temps themselves will be an issue, but sneaky warm layers elsewhere could be - 925 mb, 750-800 mb. It seems these levels are most prone to screwing us over in the South, based on my limited experience.
  9. superjames1992
    Oh yeah, sure, it just seems unlikely to me we see widespread negative single digits or highs in the single digits like I've seen on some model output.
  10. superjames1992
    Cold is almost always overdone with snowpack, IMO.
  11. superjames1992
  12. superjames1992
    It's German. Good improvement on the latest run there! I love the precip maximum in the mountains, including Boone. Very typical! The mountain folks (some) whine about it not being their storm, and such, and yet will probably outperform the western Piedmont, per usual!
  13. superjames1992
    18z DWD-ICON doesn't look too good, either. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=dwd_icon&run=18&stn=PNMPR&hh=078&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=18&mod2=dwd_icon&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=fr&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
  14. superjames1992
    It wouldn't shock me, especially if the other modeling goes the way of the NAM tonight!
  15. superjames1992
    The Para NAM is a disaster. The 21z SREF doesn't look too hot, either. Luckily, we have so many models these days, I am sure we can cherry pick some that look good.
  16. superjames1992
    The 00z runs are getting off to a rockin' start!
  17. superjames1992
    This storm is making me miss Greensboro.
  18. superjames1992
    This is the South, man. Warm noses are always a problem! Hardly have I ever had a significant storm where we didn't taint (most recent being Fab Feb '15 aside from a few isolated sleet pellets).
  19. superjames1992
    Beware of the sneaky warm nose in the 750-800 mb range. You won't find these on the conventional maps, and will have to look at soundings. I've been bitten by that one too many times. Of course, that's a chore for closer in.
  20. superjames1992
    Boone is never out of the game. A magical tongue of precip may find its way up there yet, a la Christmas Day 2010.
  21. superjames1992
    EE Rule in effect! Storm cancel!
  22. superjames1992
    The DWD-ICON model will be coming into range soon.
  23. superjames1992
    MBY gets blanked in all scenarios, at least, LOL. I'm in San Juan right now, anyways. It's currently 81 with a wonderful sea breeze. If the 12z GFS miracle somehow verified, I might blow a gasket, though. GSO got 30" on that run. Did I move away one year too early???
  24. superjames1992
    Well, it can only go downhill from here after that 12z GFS run...
  25. superjames1992
    We're basically in nowcasting range, anyways. Throw the models out and go with your heart. The models are of no use within 168 hours.
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