CT Valley Snowman

1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

00z NAM went apeshit for tomorrow night and Wednesday. Hope it's wrong...

Toss it.  No support. 

As expected, the cluster of showers/storms is rapidly weakening and falling apart on approach.  

Zzzzzzzzzz

I thought yesterday pretty much performed as expected.  Slight risk over central and western areas where there were some warned cells and a few towns got hit hard while most of us did not.  It's just not easy to get widespread severe around here. Most of the time, you just need to get lucky.  

Probably off to a slow start and not expecting a very good retention year given the high probability of warmer temp anomalies, but I think we have our chances.  And there could be a couple of big boys that help out with the snowfall anomolies, even in a overall hostile regime.   That's my early take.  

Man, looking at damage reports, parts of Springfield metro got hit hard. Uneventful day for most but certainly not for all.  

Parents reported strong winds, hail, trees and wires down and no power Tiffany st. southern Springfield near Longmeadow line.  

Looks like DIT got the precision screw job again. 

Just a typical garden variety storm here.  

Not sure why on the warning in HFD county.  

I"ll trade the lightning for some big winds.

Probably wagons north and south and west and basically anywhere but here,lol.  

PSF area/ western berks should be getting some action soon.  

16 minutes ago, scoob40 said:

With the 2pm reading this is the 19th day so far this year CEF has been AOA 90. The total last year was 27. Probably will fall a bit short of that this year. Normal im guessing is in the low 20's.

AI says normal is only like 18-20 at BDL which may be a bit low.  At least thats one thing we can hang our hats on here in this pit, hitting 90 more than anyone else in the region.  

I am pleased with the overall storm development thus far to our west,  and timing seems a bit quicker than yesterday.  Unfortunately, there is a gap between the more northern and southern cluster of storms which seems to be lining up with this area. Hopefully that fills in and we see more additional activity develop.  Not expecting any sort of major outbreak, but a few severe storms are certainly possible, mainly in the central and western portions of SNE.

. 

Some decent thunder and flashes at times but still pretty meh overall here.  

Around 90 here in the CTRV at 1 PM and dewy.  Dog days baby.  

Yeah storms looks solid up there.  

What's left of it looks to track between Kevin and I, towards smellington.  

Getting some distant thunder and a few flashes.  Storm looks to track just south of here.  

Rain has been plentiful, convection flaccid. Without a cane threat or some decent convection, things can get pretty boring this time of year. Anomalous weather in general is more interesting.  Even when we get exceptional heat, heavy rain, or dews, that is at least somewhat more interesting, but obviously some big-time convection or a legit cane threat much more so.  And before I get stoned, no I do not root for death and devastation.  I simply enjoy seeing the power of mother nature on display and enjoy active and exciting weather.      

We all now know the deal. There will be some warmer periods and some cool downs, and the month will likely finish AN.  Because that is pretty much our standard default unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. And as the month progresses, we gradually start to step down as we lose daylight etc. 19 out of the past 24 months have finshed AN at BDL,  according to a quick search I did.   You need some pretty strong evidence to bet against that.  

37 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I wonder what Mr. Nut's credentials are?

Dave is not a met, but he is very knowledgeable and a good commnicator.  Consistently voted as the best forecaster in WMASS by the Pioneer Valley Advocate and has a large following.  Understands the local climatology, topography, and nuances of forecasting in the region well.  His focus is WMASS but he extends into SVT,SWNH and NCT.  He's not infallible. but I find him very solid.  

That's a problematic looking rain train from from Providence down to Old Saybrook.  

Wouldn't be shocked if some of us in the interior west of the heavy rain axis pick up like .5 to 1.5" in afternoon convection.