Orangeburgwx

Also, go look at the 2m temp maps for the Mid-Atlantic on the ECMWF Hi-Res on Pivotal (which also covers both Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama), it is temps in the upper 30s for Western NC, and temps 50s towards the coast at hr240 (same timestamp as that 850mb temp anomaly pic) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2020011512&fh=240&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Even for me (I live further south than you) my mean average from the 0z EPS at days 11-15 was a high of 48 and a low of 38... I'll take that over 68/50 any day of the week Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

There was also a volcano that erupted in the Philippines (which can screw with the MJO due to how far an ash cloud can spread: look at Pinatubo in 93), besides we live in the southeast, so disappointment is the norm. Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

You can't even take the EURO OP at face value anymore, there is a reason there is a "mean" on the ensembles (which the OP is part of). All you seem to be trying to sniff out is a "snowy pattern", but ALL of us here on the board want it. However, after the absolute blowtorch the last three weeks have been, the more seasonal temps are fully welcomed by us. I'm not panicking about nothing, I'm just waiting on my cold air. Besides, golden rule is "stronger high pressure push, more suppression", we can always have one or the other but it is extremely rare to get both simultaneously in our region of the US to create a 73 or 89 repeat. Take the cold air first, then we look to Fab Feb for the pattern to crank into gear. Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Personally, I'm just glad we at least get our "normal" temps back, flakes are just a bonus Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Out to hr60, the initial low over the plains is a little further west than at the same stamp (hr66 on the 6z run) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Use this to get back on topic, that recurve sucks! Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020011412/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

12z was colder... Stronger cold press= more suppression. It even shows on the ensembles Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Slightly better cold press at hr72 compared to 0z run hr96 yesterday Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

1 big dog for the upstate, one for the triangle/central NC, one for the Carolina midlands/eastern NC... Most, of course, in fantasy land Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

You see the end of the 12z EURO? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

TT back up, this is the end of the 12z GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020011312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_61.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020011312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_62.png Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

2" average line comes all the way down to me, 2.5" not too far away... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Go on the site I linked you earlier and send the ensembles from there... Need to use the Southeast sector, not Midatlantic like they used Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Use the search bar at the top (magnifying glass), search "Americanwx" and it should come up Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Get Tapatalk, it is a good work around the normal image load cap on the Americanwx site itself Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Here, you can post the image since I hit my tapatalk image limit for the month (don't have VIP) https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Yeah I am Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Wow the 12z suites look better out to hr222... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Tropical Tidbits is down for me Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

This is 6z hr336 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

This is from hr240 on the 6z GEFS... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

We inside d7 on the shift Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Ok, I get it, but still that made me laugh... Let's just hope 12z is actually operational Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk