WinterWolf

This kind of reminds me of the octobomb in 2011, with regards to inland and west and elevation. Obviously differences…but modeling was way off on the boundary layer thermals right up to go time. Was supposed to rain from start and all afternoon, and then a change to some snow at the end… with little accumulation expected. We all know how that worked out. Started as snow and accumulated from the first flake…pure destructive cement. And that was October. Certainly not saying this will be the same result…but it’s mid December and climo is so much better than late October for SNE.

Hmmm… I was thinking the same. That’s not a bad thing.

Maybe get your trails open if you get it good.

Pope is high on dope lately.

Longitude lol.

WTTTE…

Not bad…. Thanks for posting.

Agree. However 18z Euro was more dynamic and ticked S and E…according to Will. Now we have another major global really jump and get juiced/more dynamic at the same time. Oh and also the CMC(if we can quantify that as a major lol) If the Euro tics again in 90 minutes…I think we are seeing the models picking up on these big teles that are on the field, and correcting as Tip explained.

Lol..we still don’t know how the one in 2-3 days is gonna turn out yet.

Oh yes for sure..but that was a major shift change on that 0z GFS all around…that’s the bigger takeaway.

It made a big wholesale change in late Jan 2015..when it brought back the big storm idea at 2 days out. so It happens. And it ain’t the old steady Euro of old anymore…more like a nervous Nellie now than anything else.

Here we go…

Had better dynamics though.

Euro came East at 18z…And had some decent dynamics.

So why is that not gonna happen? It makes the most sense with what we have on the field. Strong West based -NAO, nice high pressure north of Maine, decent airmass..makes more sense to be quite honest.

I’ll take my 8+ on the GFS. Thanks.

Well can we trust anything at this point? It’s making the most sense currently with all the other tele’s lined up. It makes synoptic sense.

18z Euro headed towards the GFS though. Where’s it going at 0z?

It certainly has the time to. Is it a case of just the 18z wonky shit though? I hope not.

Good post. But if one has some common sense regarding weather, one should know that just because somebody expects something, that doesn’t mean that the weather will cooperate at all, in either direction. The supposed relaxation could come at the end of January(which in that case gives the nervous folks 6 weeks lol). I mean people get themselves all worked up as if any of them can know what is actually gonna happen. It’s almost ridiculous. Great patterns don’t guarantee anything. They just increase your odds some of not striking out…But you still can and do some times.

But that’s weather pal. No guarantees..ever. But that’s what keeps your ass coming back for more, don’t it? Grow up a bit, and stop looking for blizzards every run…and maybe that’s when one “may” show up,

Very Well Said. And a favorable pattern it looks to be. So let’s Roll away. The angst in here from some is disturbing to say the least.

Oh we get ya pal. Appreciate the explanations and graphics. Thanks a bunch.

Do you think it(the NAM) has the better idea on the airmass Will? I mean that high to the north is in a good spot, gonna be funneling in the cold Thursday night…I mean it makes sense..no?

Your explanations are great, as are Will’s and Scott’s. Puts things into perspective. You got trolls(QgOmega and a few others) everywhere saying it’s a Cutter pattern. It’s 10 days away. It’s rinse and repeat…Etc etc…. Lots of disinformation running rampant. I think most folks here get that there are no guarantees…even in the best looking set ups. But I like where we stand. Nuances mean everything.