WinterWolf

Lol Yup..we did. But…..maybe this is the stronger signal starting to emerge? Holy smokes I hope so.

If it’s a hugger, east is in trouble even more.

I understand that completely. I have no problem with that at all. I agree that as of now next week looks better than Saturday. Just skeptical that this goes the same direction, albeit with a different issue of course(too phased, no cold..etc). But hey, we’ve kicked it to the end now, so let’s see what happens.

Now that shows exactly what I want lol…but I know that has very little chance of happening like that at 7 days. 8 yrs ago…that general look/idea would inspire a lot more confidence, than today. And there in lies my point. But I would love for it to keep that idea going as we get closer.

Nah that’s not true. And if it comes across that way, it wasn’t intended to. I don’t wish cast. And have no issue saying something looks like shit. I honestly just don’t think it’s any better than the GFS anymore. That’s just the way I feel. So in my opinion I give it a lot less credence as I said, than 5-8 yrs ago. I agree with Will, that sometimes it pays to see which one seems to be leading the way. So I’ll be cognizant of that a little more going forward. And just to be clear…it has nothing to do with what I want..at all. So I disagree on that statement. Even when it shows what I want I’m skeptical of it now.

Thanks. Good points, and I know what you mean. I’ll keep that in my mind even more.

The apex of that ridge looks a tad east of ideal to me…but I’m not a pro. And now the cold is the problem lol…can’t make it up. The rat seasons always have an issue with something. And this year we’ve had them all. But at least it looks good at day 7.

I didn’t toss it Will…I just don’t give as much credence as I used too. It flip flops all over the dam place constantly too, like the other big boys do. That’s my feeling on it. But I’m not tossing..just way less weight than it used to have. But Others can weight it as much as they want…I just don’t.

I wouldn’t be getting your hopes up for that second one next week at this point..to far out as of now. It’ll morph 5 times between now and then. But You know this.

Ya I’m not down with that anymore Pickles. We’ll have to agree to disagree. It’s lost alot of ground. And Nobody’s tossing…it just doesn’t carry the weight it used to…imo. You can think it’s better, but I don’t. In fact, I think they’re (GFS and Euro) pretty equal now. More times than not now, they’ll meet in the middle. Before, it was complete domination by the ECMWF. Unfortunately Those days are totally gone.

It would. And it’s sad, and unfortunate.

It very well could. It wouldn’t take much weakening of the confluence.

But it’s not you silly nut. However, the outcome may be the same(we get skunked). But the pattern is completely different, and is actually supportive of significant storms as you can see on modeling. But we can’t get any help at all from the little nuances/details that make or break a system. And That’s where you are wrong and make your mistake pal.

Oh, I thought the one you had above it in your first post was 0z. I still don’t think this is dead. And the Euro isn’t the dominating model anymore..

Actually for my area it only went down an inch…and that’s a mean. For other areas yes it’s more. But that’s still not that bad for western CT.

Maybe this thing ain’t dead after all?

Icon likes Saturday…has had this looking good for a few runs…

Agreed! But we gotta get it alot closer. You are a great asset here. Love your posting and analysis…keep it up. Obviously I think you understand all the caveats and points being made. It’s just so frustrating to see a good pattern and not ever being able to capitalize on anything this season. But, I agree there have been major changes now, and the question is, do we get skunked yet again? Dam I hope not.

Very true. But he’s just posting what it shows currently, and I agree that it never quite makes it inside 5 days. Don’t shoot the messenger type thing.

Well Saturday looked just as good a couple days ago too. This look will morph as we go along, so who knows how it looks by Thursday or Friday. I appreciate the breakdown…but it needs to get closer and produce something. But thanks for the post.

Yes sir, that faded fast. I think we’d all sacrifice Saturday, for a shot at a true big dog next week. But the stakes are high, and I guess we just throw all the chips we have(not much lol) in on whatever next week brings, and then maybe we can bail out afterwards.

Lol…they are both a possibility, but that’s all right now. If anything currently, the weekend system has devolved again. And imo The one next week system is much to far away to take anything seriously at this point. Pattern supports a major storm as Luke described…but where it impacts is the question? We’ve been incredibly unfortunate this winter…you’d think the odds could swing in our favor just one time??? Nothing more to do but watch the trends.

Yup…..I have a feeling we have a better chance to miss em both. This rarely works out. But at least we’re tracking.

It’s silly to be in love with either…because they’re both too far out to be honest.

Hopefully they’re fixing it …that model ain’t too good anymore…period.