WinterWolf

18z looks more dispersive too..12z was more clustered closer to the coast north to south.

lol…NAM was the first model to sniff out January 2016 coming north into SNE…just saying. Everybody discounted it then too. …scored a coup that time. Very rare, but It happens

Oooookkkkk….I hope this one can hold. Looks good now, but it always does at this lead time.

Valid points Ray. I hope this one can get inside of 4 days and look good still for most.

Would be nice to squeeze a couple/few inches Saturday, and gear up for the big dog next Tuesday/Wednesday. Is that too much to ask?

Lol Yup..we did. But…..maybe this is the stronger signal starting to emerge? Holy smokes I hope so.

If it’s a hugger, east is in trouble even more.

I understand that completely. I have no problem with that at all. I agree that as of now next week looks better than Saturday. Just skeptical that this goes the same direction, albeit with a different issue of course(too phased, no cold..etc). But hey, we’ve kicked it to the end now, so let’s see what happens.

Now that shows exactly what I want lol…but I know that has very little chance of happening like that at 7 days. 8 yrs ago…that general look/idea would inspire a lot more confidence, than today. And there in lies my point. But I would love for it to keep that idea going as we get closer.

Nah that’s not true. And if it comes across that way, it wasn’t intended to. I don’t wish cast. And have no issue saying something looks like shit. I honestly just don’t think it’s any better than the GFS anymore. That’s just the way I feel. So in my opinion I give it a lot less credence as I said, than 5-8 yrs ago. I agree with Will, that sometimes it pays to see which one seems to be leading the way. So I’ll be cognizant of that a little more going forward. And just to be clear…it has nothing to do with what I want..at all. So I disagree on that statement. Even when it shows what I want I’m skeptical of it now.

Thanks. Good points, and I know what you mean. I’ll keep that in my mind even more.

The apex of that ridge looks a tad east of ideal to me…but I’m not a pro. And now the cold is the problem lol…can’t make it up. The rat seasons always have an issue with something. And this year we’ve had them all. But at least it looks good at day 7.

I didn’t toss it Will…I just don’t give as much credence as I used too. It flip flops all over the dam place constantly too, like the other big boys do. That’s my feeling on it. But I’m not tossing..just way less weight than it used to have. But Others can weight it as much as they want…I just don’t.

I wouldn’t be getting your hopes up for that second one next week at this point..to far out as of now. It’ll morph 5 times between now and then. But You know this.

Ya I’m not down with that anymore Pickles. We’ll have to agree to disagree. It’s lost alot of ground. And Nobody’s tossing…it just doesn’t carry the weight it used to…imo. You can think it’s better, but I don’t. In fact, I think they’re (GFS and Euro) pretty equal now. More times than not now, they’ll meet in the middle. Before, it was complete domination by the ECMWF. Unfortunately Those days are totally gone.

It would. And it’s sad, and unfortunate.

It very well could. It wouldn’t take much weakening of the confluence.

But it’s not you silly nut. However, the outcome may be the same(we get skunked). But the pattern is completely different, and is actually supportive of significant storms as you can see on modeling. But we can’t get any help at all from the little nuances/details that make or break a system. And That’s where you are wrong and make your mistake pal.

Oh, I thought the one you had above it in your first post was 0z. I still don’t think this is dead. And the Euro isn’t the dominating model anymore..

Actually for my area it only went down an inch…and that’s a mean. For other areas yes it’s more. But that’s still not that bad for western CT.

Maybe this thing ain’t dead after all?

Icon likes Saturday…has had this looking good for a few runs…

Agreed! But we gotta get it alot closer. You are a great asset here. Love your posting and analysis…keep it up. Obviously I think you understand all the caveats and points being made. It’s just so frustrating to see a good pattern and not ever being able to capitalize on anything this season. But, I agree there have been major changes now, and the question is, do we get skunked yet again? Dam I hope not.

Very true. But he’s just posting what it shows currently, and I agree that it never quite makes it inside 5 days. Don’t shoot the messenger type thing.

Well Saturday looked just as good a couple days ago too. This look will morph as we go along, so who knows how it looks by Thursday or Friday. I appreciate the breakdown…but it needs to get closer and produce something. But thanks for the post.