Math/Met

14 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

My problem was more with how they called the second half.  They went from letting them be very aggressive to calling touch fouls.

That’s my biggest issue with officiating in general. I understand that missed calls happen (the LSU/UK game is a good example) and I try not to complain about that, but there’s just no consistency in how physical they’ll let the game be played from game to game (or even from the first half to the second half).

As a UK fan, I was just happy how Kentucky played against UT. Finally played how fans had been expecting going into the season. They have been improving for the past several weeks, but they finally put it all together.  It’s just one game though, and it means nothing if they can’t sustain that level of intensity the rest of the season.  

Tennessee is a much better team than they showed against UK. We all know that. I fully expect it to be a different game in Knoxville. I’m hoping for the win, but I went into the season expecting to split with UT.  Rupp is a tough place to play (especially during a big game), but TBA is also tough.  I know UT will be out for revenge.

Regarding the refs, I don’t think anyone was more surprised by how the game was called than UK fans. We expected our big guys to have two fouls each in the first few minutes against Williams.

Favorable conditions for mountain waves will be in place later tonight and especially tomorrow morning. MRX issued a High Wind Warning and mentioned the potential for downed trees due to saturated ground in the AFD.  

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* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 65 mph...except occasional gusts above 70 mph mainly in the Smokies and adjacent foothills, including Camp Creek.

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Regardless of whether or not the strict criteria for a high wind warning/advisory is met there is still a good chance that we see several reports of downed trees simply due to how saturated the grounds are, which leads to falling trees much more easily.

It could take a few hours for mountain waves to really get going tonight/tomorrow morning.  Models show a very strong temperature inversion across the mountains later tonight and the 850mb flow has a bit for of an easterly component. So, it could take until early tomorrow morning to get the proper balance between cross barrier wind speed and stability (haven’t calculated the Froude number, just basing on past experience). The cross barrier flow could be partially blocked for part of the night and could prevent the downslope flow from being sustained.  After the initial round of precip lifts north, the 850mb flow becomes more southerly and the temperature profile is more conducive.  That’s when the conditions become very favorable for mountain waves. This could be a strong event, which will likely cause some problems with down trees along the mountains.

In addition to the flooding threat, there could also be a mountain wave event Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong LLJ develops over the region with a favorable wind profile.  With the saturated ground, these strong winds along the mountains could cause some problems as well.   

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The thing that's worrying to me is that all this isn't based on a particular system like most of the stuff we look for is, but that the TN/ OH valley is basically under the right rear quadrant of jet streak after jet streak for 10 - 15 days.  That jet is coming. Every system has over performed this year, why should this one be any different? Believe me, I don't want that at all. 

The precipitable water anomalies are 250 - 300% on GFS and Euro. The jet will provide the lift with occasional embedded shortwaves providing more.  The whole set up just screams big time rain.  I think some area gets wholloped, but exactly who remains unknown. 

 

I guess we can hope the SE ridge trends stronger (it has been a little bit at a time), but then that just screws over the OH valley. 

 

That’s a good point.  I usually don’t pay much attention to specific 10 day model output, but in this case it seems to be a fairly stable solution due to the features you mentioned.

4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

anyone have the precip map for the EURO

Heavy rain still moving through East TN at 240, so those totals would likely go up if extended 6 hours.

Several people have mentioned their concern for flooding, and I definitely share that concern. Here’s the latest 12z Euro precip map. Still raining at 240 hours.

12z Euro accumulated precip. There's currently water standing in my yard...doesn't look like that will change much in the next 10 days. 

4 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

Only the NCAA can punish so arbitrarily.  The NCAA gave Tennessee's basketball coach a TWO year show cause for lying about a BBQ, but then let North Carolina off without any punishment for the worst academic fraud in college sports history.

"The N.C.A.A. did not dispute that the University of North Carolina was guilty of running one of the worst academic fraud schemes in college sports history, involving fake classes that enabled dozens of athletes to gain and maintain their eligibility.  In a ruling that caused head-scratching everywhere except Chapel Hill, the N.C.A.A. announced on Friday that it could not punish the university or its athletics program because the “paper” classes were not available exclusively to athletes. Other students at North Carolina had access to the fraudulent classes, too."  New York Times

The NCAA lost any remaining credibility with that ruling. There was a disproportionate amount of athletes in those classes.  They are basically telling everyone that it’s ok to cheat, as long as other students benefit from it as well. The ruling would be different for just about any other school. UNC and Duke are apparently untouchable. I think the Corey Maggette (Duke) decision is an example of that. 

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"Five years after the Clippers' Corey Maggette played for Duke in the NCAA championship game and later was found to be ineligible for accepting improper payments in high school, the NCAA announced that Duke would not be penalized for his participation."

With downslope winds, it is currently 72 degrees at Camp Creek at midnight. Amazing for this time of the year.

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Lord it's so pretty! It's like looking at it on a modern model!

If those were from a current model run, then it would be impossible for me to sleep!

43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Now, I asked last night if we could hit 80. We may have already.

 

Now I wonder if multiple places get to 80, can isolated locations hit the low 80s? 

 

You can definitely see the downlope flow helping eastern areas. My thermometer is at 78 degrees currently.  I’d rather have cold and snow, but it’s as perfect as you could ask for in February.

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

When's Opening Day for your favorite baseball team? KC Royals open at home March 28. Few days prior they play their AAA affiliate the Omaha Storm Chasers!

The Cardinals open at the Brewers on 3/28. I'm just happy that St. Louis actually spent some money this offseason. 

1 hour ago, Blue Ridge said:

I'm beginning to wonder if Harper or Machado will sign by the time Spring Training is here.

I'm not sure if I'd want to sign either of them to long term huge contracts. They are both extremely talented players, but Harper is inconsistent and Machado doesn't seem to care half the time. I'm actually a fan of Harper. I followed his career after watching him play in a youth tournament when he was 13 years old. I honestly believe he was the best youth baseball player in history. I think he could have played SEC baseball at 13 years old.  He's just never been consistent with his swing, so he tends to go into very long slumps.  

I think a lot of the problem is our expectations of how accurate a weather model should be. The advancements of modern technology have probably contributed to a lot of people expecting too much from weather models.  There’s no such thing as a perfect model, especially when you are dealing with the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Computer models have improved over time, but I don’t expect any drastic changes to their accuracy in the foreseeable future. It seems to be a problem of diminishing returns.

That doesn’t mean the current state of weather modeling is “bad”. As my mathematical modeling professor once told me, “there’s no such thing as a bad model”.  Even the most simple weather model could provide you with useful information about the evolution of the atmosphere.  That’s pretty much the best we can do for now. Using models as a guide for how the atmosphere might evolve over time and combine that with our knowledge of how the weather in this area typically behaves during various conditions. It certainly isn't perfect, but at least  there is a decent level of predictability (unlike the perception that forecasts are "never right" based on social media comments). 

On the idea of using knowledge of our local climate, it is truly amazing how much collective knowledge this forum has about local weather patterns.  I think we all have great interest in learning how the local terrain impacts our weather. I'm constantly learning something new from this forum.

Measured about 1.5 on the deck in Greene Co.

5 hours ago, Reb said:

Closing in on 3” and still snowing Maryville/Seymour line 

Congrats. Models generally favored that area, and it made sense based on the setup.

11 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Tennessee would beat Kansas today. KU is missing Azubuike. Kentucky is gelling now. I can't wait for the UT UK games!

Kansas is definitely missing the inside presence of Azubuike. It didn't look like either team played particularly well, but I’m just glad UK got the win at home. Best of luck to Kansas the rest of the way.

Mountain waves showing up on satellite today.

1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said:

Peak gust appears to be around 37 m/s, with peak sustained wind of roughly 33 m/s. That's approx. 74 mph.

 

 

If that one sustained wind observation is correct, that's crazy!

https://twitter.com/jeremyeisenzopf/status/1088113932022284296

It looks like a significant wind event is underway for the mountains and foothills. Camp Creek is gusting to 81mph. I saw a report that Camp Creek School is dismissing early today, but they aren’t using buses (for obvious reasons).

Cove Mountain has gusted to 88mph at 10am,

Edit: MRX is saying an 85mph gust was recorded at Camp Creek. I must have missed that gust. The data isn't loading properly for me. 

19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes Tennessee experience shows. 

Big game Saturday Kansas at Kentucky. At Rupp, I have to pick Kentucky. Cal will definitely get Kentucky ready by tournament time. Always does. My Jayhawks need some real Self Magic to make up for losing Azubuike. We have some young talent, but they are green.

Hopefully our season does not turn out as disappointing as the FV3, lol!

That should be a great game. Of the other top programs, I actually have the most respect for Kansas.  I've always liked Self.  Duke and UNC are the programs that I dislike the most. It drives me crazy to see all of the bandwagon Duke “fans” in this area. The kind of people that are football fans of another program but are Duke fans in basketball.  I’m sure UT fans feel the same way about all the bandwagon Alabama football fans in this area. My father and grandfather were huge Kentucky fans, so I didn't have much of a choice. 

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Finally, Tennessee deserves number one for sure! Defense is amazing. 

I agree. I’m a Kentucky fan, so I don’t enjoy saying this. I really think UT has been the best team all year. Duke is the most talented, but the experience and chemistry that UT plays with gives them the edge in my opinion.

I try to be realistic when it comes to Kentucky. The first half of the season was ugly at times, but I’m starting to see signs that this Kentucky team is figuring it out. They just can't get everyone playing at a high level at the same time. UK will still have some ugly games at times the rest of the season, but I think they could make some noise in March (I hope). 

Gusts up to 68mph so far today at Camp Creek.

These are the biggest flakes I’ve seen in a few years.