BlueRidgeFolklore

The WPC just released their 3 month forecast for winter and it doesn't look good for us. https://x.com/NWSGSP/status/1978840883098202131 However, just out of curiosity and went back and looked at their forecast for the 2013-2014 since that seems to be the winter that is getting the most comparisons and the similarities are striking. Below is also how that winter faired for us.

It's coming! Of note, one of the analog years I keep seeing being mentioned for this upcoming winter is 2013-2014. That ended up being a good winter for us. KAVL temperatures for that October were relatively warm with mid-70's all the way into late October. Just something to keep an eye on.

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html "Siberian snow cover got off to a quick start in September and that has continued into October (see Figure ii), however it seems to me the rapid advance of late September has slowed a bit in October. In fact in a bit f an unusual twist the surface temperatures have been more impressive this month (as in cold) than the snow cover, typically it is the reversed. Above normal Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) favors a weak polar vortex this winter and more widespread severe winter weather across the NH"

That's in line with climo, I'm taking it to the bank.

I've been here a long time and we've regularly dealt with tropical storm systems. Helene is and hopefully will always be the outlier. I can think back to Bill, Frances, Ivan, Arlene, Dennis, Fred, etc, and never do I remember waking up to such flooding and devastation before the system makes landfall in the Gulf. That's the one image that will always stand out to me with Helene, is the sheer amount of flooding we were already dealing with. Just an unfathomable set of circumstances.

Let's Go!!!!

It's September 4th, who's kicking off the new thread?

Wait until tomorrow!

Looks like we might be in for a brief taste of fall. https://www.facebook.com/share/1FD9w4ijqg/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Definitely. Woke up to a hellacious storm in Henderson this morning.

Pretty weird seeing the Southern Escarpment so dry.

Pretty surreal map!

Lucky you, we got an entire truck load of Starlink delivered to us holler folk back during Helene. We get to be a thorn in your arse well into night.

The NAM just came in juicier than previous runs, for WNC.

Not at all!