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Spartman

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    April 2025 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Some last minute rain to close out the month with 0.02". Final total for the month is 6.15", still making it the 8th wettest April on record.

    Top 10 Wettest Aprils (DAY):
    1. 9.20" - 1996
    2. 8.72" - 2011
    3. 6.95" - 1947
    4. 6.78" - 1993
    5. 6.52" - 1989
    6. 6.32" - 1994
    7. 6.19" - 1998
    8. 6.15" - 2025
    9. 5.98" - 1964
    10. 5.87" - 1911

    Cincinnati had an additional 0.18" to close out the month. Final total for the month is 7.47", making it their 5th wettest April on record.

    Top 5 Wettest Aprils (CVG):
    1. 13.52" - 2011
    2. 9.77" - 1998
    3. 8.36" - 1947
    4. 8.20" - 1996
    5. 7.47" - 2025

    I had a feeling that was coming all along thanks to the very wet start to the month. 

    Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    17 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

    Puke. Classic dreaded spring omega block that prevents western troughs from maturing and ejecting properly for :twister:events.

    Already ruining the chance of what would have been a dry weekend for a change this upcoming weekend. Haven't had a dry weekend since late February or a drier-than-normal month since January and might as well wait until at least sometime in the summer to see a dry weekend ever again, knowing how this Spring has been. Hell, I'm ready for 2025 to be over already. :lol:

    00z Euro still locking in the Omega Block over the weekend, although the Omega Block gets replaced by a potential Rex Block later next week::cliff:
    500wh.conus.png
    500wh.conus.png

    00z GFS:
    500wh.conus.png

    Latest Long Term update from ILN 

    .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period, with some strong storms still possible. The more robust
activity will diminish through the evening as upper support lifts
northeast and instability decreases. However, some showers and
thunderstorms may linger with a weakening surface boundary in the
area.

Northern stream short wave will dig southeast Friday into Friday
night. This, along with diurnal heating, will be sufficient to bring
an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms again during the
day. This will continue into Friday night as weak low pressure and a
cold front finally move through.

At this point, guidance diverges as the flow transitions into a
blocky pattern. The GFS and much of its ensemble system are quite
progressive with the trough, not closing it off until reaching the
Maritimes, allowing high pressure to build into the region and
predominate. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and CMC along with many of their
respective ensemble members close off a low near or west of the
Appalachians which then meanders about the region through the rest
of the period. Needless to say, these two scenarios would result in
a substantial difference in sensible weather. The NBM and the lag
built into that is still pretty optimistic. But with the trends seen
in the ECE and GEPS, have begun to trend the forecast to more clouds
and low PoP chances.

    IND office caving to the ILN about the blocking pattern 

    .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Unsettled conditions continue with additional opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms as we wrap up the work week with a cold front
moving across the Thursday night followed by a trailing upper level
low and associated surface trough on Friday. The warm front
should be fully north of the forecast area by Thursday morning as
low pressure lifts into north central Illinois. High pressure will
build in for the weekend with an amplified and blocky upper level
pattern developing across the country by early next week. There
remains the possibility that the upper trough passing through the
Ohio Valley during the first part of the weekend closes off into a
low to our east into early next week. This would delay the
arrival of ridging and warmer air by a few days and could cause a
wet and unsettled pattern to linger but confidence is low in this
solution coming to pass. The more consistent idea remains that
ridging aloft and at the surface will become the dominant features
across the region and bring a return to warm and dry weather by
early next week.

    TWC/Wunderground is already hugging the Euro regarding this weekend into early next week.
    BMW0qFI.png

    BAM bringing up the blocking pattern, as well
    https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1917255041062260887
    7pplaoZ.png

    Wonder how soon until JB starts bringing up next week's blocking pattern :rolleyes:

    • Thanks 1

    Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week
      

    .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.

The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.

With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.

    06z GFS:
    500wh.conus.png
    500wh.conus.png

    00z Euro:
    500wh.conus.png
    500wh.conus.png

    Spring 2025 Banter Thread

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Suicide weather yesterday, it returns tomorrow. TWC/Wunderground now says it might as well include some rain if they have maintained overcast skies for tomorrow over the past several days. So much for the 1st dry weekend of Spring 2025. :axe:

    Oof_Size_Large.jpg

    Normally we would have at least one dry weekend or two every Spring, but I feel that this is just not going to be our year. Even wet springs like 2011 had some dry weekends.

    The last time it rained literally EVERY SINGLE WEEKEND the entire Spring was in 2019. 

    April 2025 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

    More BS backwards spring on deck here tomorrow

    image.png.c1b733faa05e2f2f475e8652ea968aec.png

    Below normal temperatures every single day for this upcoming week through Saturday. 

    Tonight
    A chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 11pm and midnight. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northeast wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
    Monday
    Increasing clouds, with a high near 55. Light west wind increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the morning.
    Monday Night
    Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
    Tuesday
    Sunny, with a high near 43. Northwest wind around 11 mph.
    Tuesday Night
    Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
    Wednesday
    A chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
    Wednesday Night
    Showers, mainly after 2am. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
    Thursday
    Showers. High near 56. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
    Thursday Night
    A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    Friday
    Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
    Friday Night
    Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
    Saturday
    Sunny, with a high near 57.
    Saturday Night
    Mostly clear, with a low around 36.
    Sunday
    Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.


    Yesterday's soaker: 

    000
SXUS71 KILN 060536
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0134 AM EDT SUN APR 06 2025

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.65 INCHES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH (KDAY) ON 
SATURDAY, APRIL 5. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD FOR THE SITE OF 
1.37 INCHES SET IN 1936.

$$

     

    • Like 1

    April 2025 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    On 4/3/2025 at 11:13 AM, Powerball said:

    Let's just say I'll rather deal with Summers in Texas over the Winters downwind of the Great Lakes.

    EDIT: And days like the ones we're expecting through the weekend (temps stuck in the 50s with nothing but stratocumulus and light stratiform rain/drizzle) only reaffirms how much I would hate having to deal with several months of it.

    Definitely going to be a long crappy 1st weekend of April, for sure

    • Thanks 1

    April 2025 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted 

    000
SXUS71 KILN 030642
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0239 AM EDT THU APR 03 2025

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH
YESTERDAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET IN 1963.


$$

    First 80-degree of the year yesterday

     

    • Like 2

    April 2025 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    April kicks off on a chilly note on April Fool's Day, but we're going to a warm, but very wet stretch the day after that will last through the first weekend of the month. A stretch so wet that many places could risk making it to the top 10 wettest Aprils ever during the first days of the month right before we start dealing with the effects of the March SSW the week after. Models have actually had such a wet start to the month zeroed in for the past several days.

    GFS 18z:
    qpf_acc-imp.us_ov.png

    Euro 12z:
    qpf_acc-imp.us_ov.png

    https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904243702932918584
    vT0HwIX.png

    610temp.new.gif

    814temp.new.gif

    • Like 1
    • Sad 1
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