Spartman

Currently tied for the 3rd driest September on record.

8 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Summer of smoke.

Today kicks off what may very well be a prolonged overcast stretch that would last into the weekend.

89'd again today. Still feel it's the highest it's going to get for this month. With the last 90 hit back on August 23rd, the 90s seem to be maxed out for the year.

Got 89'd on the first Saturday night of September. It's the highest it's going to get for the month. Almost all the 90s are dropped from the upcoming week.

Today
Sunny, with a high near 89. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Labor Day
Sunny, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Light south wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 79.

May very well be stuck in the 60s today.

89'd today, even with temps in the 80s pretty much the entire day. 

Temps have quit rising about everywhere

On 8/21/2023 at 12:53 AM, Spartman said:

If we have not had any heatwaves so far this year, I say there's not going to be one at all this year.

00z GFS says heatwave cancel

Forget about a heatwave until at least next year.

Only reached 88 today. That's it on the 90s.

What's happening during next weeks looks to be the final nail in the coffin for the summer.

Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 71.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 49.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 73.

Stuck at 77 as of Noon, despite clearing skies. Now I'm waiting to see when and if the Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories get cancelled soon. 

Already got over a month's worth of rain during the 1st half of the month, we're pushing for one of the wettest Augusts ever.

3 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Why such a strange track and slow motion of these storms? Usually it's west to east at 60 mph. This is a strange night.

Blocking

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
While the synoptic setup remains fairly certain with a low northwest
of the Ohio Valley, mesoscale uncertainty from tonight extends into
tomorrow (Thursday). If the area remains dry overnight (no MCS
diving in from Michigan), Thursday likely features highs reaching
into the 90s along with dew points in the lower to middle 70s
everywhere. This combination of temperatures and dew points would
easily support the heat index reaching over 105 which reaches
Excessive Heat Warning Criteria. However, if the dry forecast
does not work out and a MCS dives south from Michigan overnight,
the rain-cooled air and cloud cover in the wake of the MCS
could limit daytime highs to near 90 in certain locations. Wet
scenario probabilities increase further east of I-75. The wet
scenario would still likely feature hot conditions by the
afternoon with the heat index reaching up to 100 which reaches
advisory level criteria. Either way, the main takeaway for
Thursday is hot and humid conditions are expected during the
afternoon. Whether the heat index reaches 100 (Heat Advisory) or
105 (Excessive Heat Warning), the risk for heat related illness
will likely be elevated. An Excessive Heat Watch remains in
place where the greatest uncertainty regarding convection is. An
Excessive Heat Warning in now in place where confidence is
highest regarding the heat index reaching 105 or above which is
along and west of I-75. The watch will be adjusted in the future
when the nature of possible convection is clearer.

Expect Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories to get cancelled tomorrow.

5 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Crazy southwest moving MCS. Can anyone explain why? Based off outflow?

Super MCS seems silmilar to a cutoff low.

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Heatwave bust again lol

Definitely another headfake. NWS dropped the 90s from Wednesday and Friday.

If we have not had any heatwaves so far this year, I say there's not going to be one at all this year.

00z GFS says heatwave cancel

On 8/16/2023 at 11:44 AM, IWXwx said:

Never gets old.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 93.

 

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 95.

 

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.

And the real heatwave has been pushed back to the middle of the week.

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

I hope everyone has stocked up on baby powder for next week.  Record level heat incoming.

12z GFS trying to lose the heat

GFS and NAM seem to be wanting to spin up a Fall-like system for Monday into Tuesday. On at least one of the days, some could be stuck in the 60s while some could be stuck in the 50s.

GFS:

NAM:

Monday's looking like a repeat of this past Monday.

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Models sucked ass with this system.  Just 0.15" here.  Nice amount of rain in July so we don't need it that badly anyway at least.

Got nothing today. Ended up with the first completely dry weekend since the middle of June.

9 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Feels like autumn today. Spitting rain showers spinning in from the southeast and temperatures in the upper 60s. I love it.

Tomorrow looks to be our turn. Expecting to suck being stuck in the low to mid-70s the entire day tomorrow.

Should've extended this thread to tomorrow. Didn't get a drop today, but it'll change tomorrow.

Not often do NWS offices like IWX mention Winter in their AFDs during the summer.
 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2023

The forecast 500-mb chart for Monday looks out of place for early
August; rather fall or winter-like. The crawling MCV turned surface
low is finally absorbed by a stronger trough digging in over the
Illinois Sunday night. As a result, a sprawling upper-level low is
overhead on Monday offering the chance for passing showers and cool
conditions; highs in the mid-70s.

Broad troughing aloft will keep temperatures a touch below normal
through the week. A couple of disturbances bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and again near Friday
night. Early indications suggest we may be between systems next
weekend, thus perhaps leaning toward a dry forecast.

Monday afternoon:
'

The upcoming week looks to be a wash.

9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

still no real heat on the horizon, what a summer

There are many summers with a lack of 90-degree days that are followed by cold/snowy winters.