Spartman
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Posts posted by Spartman
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April kicks off on a chilly note on April Fool's Day, but we're going to a warm, but very wet stretch the day after that will last through the first weekend of the month. A stretch so wet that many places could risk making it to the top 10 wettest Aprils ever during the first days of the month right before we start dealing with the effects of the March SSW the week after. Models have actually had such a wet start to the month zeroed in for the past several days.
GFS 18z:
Euro 12z:
https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904243702932918584
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JB considering this upcoming outbreak as part of the "busiest period" since 2011
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With all that cloud cover around the entire weekend, that could actually limit severe weather for Sunday.
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17 hours ago, Brian D said:
Rain moving in with a band of snow across the N areas of the region. Temps are running low 30's inland to mid 30's on the shore. They could see some icing in the inland areas. Windy off the Lake gusting up to 25-30. Looks like the next round will be snow this weekend, but I might be on the N extent. South Shore should do well, and DLH.
That plus rain, storms, and cloud cover throughout the region. Going to be a crappy final weekend of March.
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https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/page/254/#comments
From the 2024-2025 La Nina thread: This April's expected to have a very wet start to the month, but supposed to start feeling the effects of the recent Stratospheric warming by the 1st full week of April
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41 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:
With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area.
https://x.com/indywx/status/1905231109006188598
We are REALLY REALLY pushing for a 2011 redux this Spring...and perhaps 2025 this year altogether.
Heading into April, not good if you're looking for sustained Spring warmth
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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:
NWS forecast for next week Wednesday:
Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Going to be garbage over the next 1-2 weeks
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7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:
extended continues to look generally active/wet in the region
Garbage pattern over the next 1-2 weeks.
Looking so bad into April, we might as well get a blocking pattern by then.
BAM brings up Aprils 2001, 2011, and 2012 as his analogs, but April 2011 looks to be the most fitting one since that April was one of the wettest ever.
Looks like it'll be active/wet through at least a good portion of the upcoming summer, as well.
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On 3/22/2025 at 3:10 PM, PowellVolz said:
Shades of '11
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Today's CFSv2 Weeks 3-4:
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000 SXUS71 KILN 150533 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 0127 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS TIED AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 78 DEGREES SET IN 1990. -
Yesterday was the first 70-degree day of the year.
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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:
Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various
TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO.BAM Weather bringing up 2011
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Got 2.5" of snow from this storm today. Finally some measurable snow for February after barely a trace during the 1st of of the month.
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By the time Friday comes, it will already be halfway through the month with literally no snowfall for the month so far. Just had the least snowiest February ever back in 2023 with only 0.1" for that February. #FebruarytoForget
Suicide weather today. It's going to be that kind of week. Certainly a crappy weekend upcoming following Valentine's Day.
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000 SXUS71 KILN 040559 RERCVG RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1252 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2025 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT CINCINNATI OH... A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT THE CINCINNATI NORTHERN KENTUCKY AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE OF 66 DEGREES FROM 1883. $$21 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:Nice taste of spring today in the Ohio Valley, with some record highs being met or exceeded. Enjoy the warmth because it might be short-lived. I believe this is what they call "false spring" in these parts.
As of the top of the hour,
Columbus, Ohio was up to 63F, tying the record set on this date in 2020 and 1890;
Dayton, Ohio was up to 65F, beating the prior record of 62F set in 2020 and 1927;
Cincinnati, Ohio was up to 66F, tying the record set in 1883;
Indianapolis, Indiana was up to 67F, tying the record set in 2020;
South Bend, Indiana was up to 55F, tying the record set in 2020;
Evansville, Indiana was up to 72F, breaking the record of 70F set in 2020;
Paducah, Kentucky was up to 71F, tying the record set in 2020;
Jackson, Kentucy was up to 70F, breaking the record of 69F set in 2020; and
Lexington, Kentucky was up to 71F, breaking the record of 70F set in 1890.
The temperature at Louisville stood at 73F, one shy of the 2020 record value.
Any other record reports out there?
Topped out at 66 on Monday
000 SXUS71 KILN 040602 RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1252 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2025 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT DAYTON OH... A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT DAYTON OHIO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE OF 62 DEGREES FROM 1927. $$Cincinnati had its first 70-degree day of the year Monday, too.
000 SXUS71 KILN 040559 RERCVG RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1252 AM EST TUE FEB 04 2025 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT CINCINNATI OH... A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT THE CINCINNATI NORTHERN KENTUCKY AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE OF 66 DEGREES FROM 1883. $$ -
000 CXUS51 KILN 010533 CF6DAY PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2025 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 37 30 34 3 31 0 0.01 T 0 17.0 26 290 M M 10 1 37 270 2 37 26 32 1 33 0 T T 0 12.3 25 270 M M 8 35 270 3 34 20 27 -3 38 0 0.02 0.4 T 15.8 25 270 M M 9 1 34 290 4 24 15 20 -10 45 0 T T T 12.2 20 280 M M 5 25 270 5 25 15 20 -10 45 0 0.28 2.7 T 7.1 18 80 M M 10 14 23 70 6 27 21 24 -6 41 0 0.27 4.0 5 17.7 26 30 M M 10 1249 35 10 7 28 14 21 -9 44 0 T T 6 9.0 15 330 M M 9 20 330 8 25 16 21 -9 44 0 T 0.1 5 10.9 17 250 M M 10 1 21 260 9 28 8 18 -12 47 0 0.00 0.0 5 5.5 13 220 M M 4 18 290 10 26 15 21 -9 44 0 0.20 3.8 4 6.8 10 150 M M 10 1 14 180 11 32 17 25 -4 40 0 0.02 0.7 8 11.1 21 270 M M 7 19 25 260 12 38 22 30 1 35 0 0.00 0.0 7 12.7 21 190 M M 10 18 30 180 13 33 8 21 -8 44 0 0.00 0.0 4 13.6 22 260 M M 3 8 27 280 14 22 6 14 -15 51 0 0.02 0.7 4 12.2 28 270 M M 5 189 39 270 15 21 -1 10 -19 55 0 0.00 0.0 5 7.7 18 210 M M 2 26 210 16 31 20 26 -3 39 0 T T 4 14.6 28 260 M M 9 1 33 260 17 42 25 34 5 31 0 T 0.0 3 12.0 21 170 M M 5 18 28 170 18 43 29 36 7 29 0 0.21 T 1 12.1 23 200 M M 10 1 34 220 19 29 6 18 -11 47 0 0.06 1.1 T 13.7 24 280 M M 9 128 33 280 20 9 0 5 -24 60 0 0.00 0.0 1 11.9 18 250 M M 0 23 270 21 9 -3 3 -26 62 0 T T 1 10.7 22 270 M M 5 8 27 270 22 20 -4 8 -21 57 0 0.00 0.0 1 10.9 18 200 M M 5 27 200 23 29 17 23 -6 42 0 0.03 0.8 1 12.8 20 320 M M 8 18 26 310 24 20 4 12 -17 53 0 T T 1 6.9 13 250 M M 5 1 15 240 25 38 19 29 0 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 13.5 22 210 M M 7 27 210 26 35 24 30 1 35 0 0.00 0.0 T 7.2 16 290 M M 9 20 300 27 34 17 26 -3 39 0 0.00 0.0 T 14.0 26 240 M M 2 35 240 28 43 27 35 6 30 0 0.00 0.0 T 17.3 25 230 M M 3 35 240 29 44 30 37 8 28 0 0.00 0.0 T 14.5 24 240 M M 2 36 230 30 47 28 38 8 27 0 0.04 0.0 T 8.6 16 140 M M 6 18 21 150 31 57 35 46 16 19 0 0.09 0.0 0 13.5 29 240 M M 9 12 38 260 ================================================================================ SM 967 506 1271 0 1.25 14.3 365.8 M 206 ================================================================================ AV 31.2 16.3 11.8 FASTST M M 7 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 29 240 39 270 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: JANUARY YEAR: 2025 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 23.8 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.25 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: -5.6 DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.83 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 57 ON 31 GRTST 24HR 0.36 ON 17-18 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: -4 ON 22 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 14.3 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 4.0 ON 6- 6 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 8 ON 11 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 17 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 12 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 4 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 30 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 4 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 1271 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 6 DPTR FM NORMAL 169 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 12 TOTAL FM JUL 1 2888 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 13 DPTR FM NORMAL -158 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP M ON M DPTR FM NORMAL 0 LOWEST SLP 29.63 ON 31 [REMARKS] #FINAL-01-25#First colder-than-normal January since 2022. No doubt it will be the coldest month for Winter 24-25.
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CXUS51 KILN 010533 + CF6DAY + PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) + + STATION: DAYTON OH + MONTH: JANUARY + YEAR: 2025 + LATITUDE: 39 54 N + LONGITUDE: 84 12 W + + TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND + ================================================================================+ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 + 12Z AVG MX 2MIN + DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR + ================================================================================+ + 1 37 30 34 3 31 0 0.01 T 0 17.0 26 290 M M 10 1 37 270+ 2 37 26 32 1 33 0 T T 0 12.3 25 270 M M 8 35 270+ 3 34 20 27 -3 38 0 0.02 0.4 T 15.8 25 270 M M 9 1 34 290+ 4 24 15 20 -10 45 0 T T T 12.2 20 280 M M 5 25 270+ 5 25 15 20 -10 45 0 0.28 2.7 T 7.1 18 80 M M 10 14 23 70+ 6 27 21 24 -6 41 0 0.27 4.0 5 17.7 26 30 M M 10 1249 35 10+ 7 28 14 21 -9 44 0 T T 6 9.0 15 330 M M 9 20 330+ 8 25 16 21 -9 44 0 T 0.1 5 10.9 17 250 M M 10 1 21 260+ 9 28 8 18 -12 47 0 0.00 0.0 5 5.5 13 220 M M 4 18 290+ 10 26 15 21 -9 44 0 0.20 3.8 4 6.8 10 150 M M 10 1 14 180+ 11 32 17 25 -4 40 0 0.02 0.7 8 11.1 21 270 M M 7 19 25 260+ 12 38 22 30 1 35 0 0.00 0.0 7 12.7 21 190 M M 10 18 30 180+ 13 33 8 21 -8 44 0 0.00 0.0 4 13.6 22 260 M M 3 8 27 280+ 14 22 6 14 -15 51 0 0.02 0.7 4 12.2 28 270 M M 5 189 39 270+ 15 21 -1 10 -19 55 0 0.00 0.0 5 7.7 18 210 M M 2 26 210+ 16 31 20 26 -3 39 0 T T 4 14.6 28 260 M M 9 1 33 260+ 17 42 25 34 5 31 0 T 0.0 3 12.0 21 170 M M 5 18 28 170+ 18 43 29 36 7 29 0 0.21 T 1 12.1 23 200 M M 10 1 34 220+ 19 29 6 18 -11 47 0 0.06 1.1 T 13.7 24 280 M M 9 128 33 280+ 20 9 0 5 -24 60 0 0.00 0.0 1 11.9 18 250 M M 0 23 270+ 21 9 -3 3 -26 62 0 T T 1 10.7 22 270 M M 5 8 27 270+ 22 20 -4 8 -21 57 0 0.00 0.0 1 10.9 18 200 M M 5 27 200+ 23 29 17 23 -6 42 0 0.03 0.8 1 12.8 20 320 M M 8 18 26 310+ 24 20 4 12 -17 53 0 T T 1 6.9 13 250 M M 5 1 15 240+ 25 38 19 29 0 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 13.5 22 210 M M 7 27 210+ 26 35 24 30 1 35 0 0.00 0.0 T 7.2 16 290 M M 9 20 300+ 27 34 17 26 -3 39 0 0.00 0.0 T 14.0 26 240 M M 2 35 240+ 28 43 27 35 6 30 0 0.00 0.0 T 17.3 25 230 M M 3 35 240+ 29 44 30 37 8 28 0 0.00 0.0 T 14.5 24 240 M M 2 36 230+ 30 47 28 38 8 27 0 0.04 0.0 T 8.6 16 140 M M 6 18 21 150+ 31 57 35 46 16 19 0 0.09 0.0 0 13.5 29 240 M M 9 12 38 260+ ================================================================================+ SM 967 506 1271 0 1.25 14.3 365.8 M 206 + ================================================================================+ AV 31.2 16.3 11.8 FASTST M M 7 MAX(MPH) + MISC ----> 29 240 39 270 + ================================================================================+ NOTES: + # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES + + COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. + \x0C + PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 + + STATION: DAYTON OH + MONTH: JANUARY + YEAR: 2025 + LATITUDE: 39 54 N + LONGITUDE: 84 12 W + + [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 + + AVERAGE MONTHLY: 23.8 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.25 1 = FOG OR MIST + DPTR FM NORMAL: -5.6 DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.83 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY + HIGHEST: 57 ON 31 GRTST 24HR 0.36 ON 17-18 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS + LOWEST: -4 ON 22 3 = THUNDER + SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS + TOTAL MONTH: 14.3 INCHES 5 = HAIL + GRTST 24HR 4.0 ON 6- 6 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE + GRTST DEPTH: 8 ON 11 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: + VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS + 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE + [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW + X = TORNADO + MAX 32 OR BELOW: 17 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 12 + MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 4 + MIN 32 OR BELOW: 30 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 0 + MIN 0 OR BELOW: 4 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0 + + [HDD (BASE 65) ] + TOTAL THIS MO. 1271 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 6 + DPTR FM NORMAL 169 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 12 + TOTAL FM JUL 1 2888 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 13 + DPTR FM NORMAL -158 + + [CDD (BASE 65) ] + TOTAL THIS MO. 0 + DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] + TOTAL FM JAN 1 0 HIGHEST SLP M ON M + DPTR FM NORMAL 0 LOWEST SLP 29.63 ON 31 + + [REMARKS] + #FINAL-01-25# -
The last month of Meteorological Winter. We kick off February with a blowtorch over the next several days, but rain and lack of sun.
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This weekend was the first dry weekend of 2025
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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:
Next weekend looks like a brief warm up then the cold recharges. Pattern definitely more active on the ensembles.
Definitely a garbage pattern heading into the first several days of February.
https://x.com/TrackerSacker/status/188315700214827866700z GFS for February 6th:
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11 hours ago, bowtie` said:
Were all these clouds forecast?
You jinxed it! After no sun all weekend followed by the sunniest day for the month on yesterday, TWC/Wunderground wants day after day of suicide weather from today through Thursday, especially with the coldest low of the season Wednesday morning tomorrow in this "Arctic" outbreak. Garbage.
ZZZZZZZZZ.
4/2-4/3 Potential Major Severe WX Outbreak
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Models and even NBM had the high rainfall amounts locked in for the past several days, if not at least a week.