Spartman

7 hours ago, Chambana said:

Not ready 2 b buried? 

An awful stretch coming up over the next week

Got 0.74" from the storm today. Suicide weather to finish off the weekend tomorrow.

23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

January gonna be rockin'

Shades of December '14

10 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Today's wave is a bust, snow-wise.  It's weak and it's too warm.

Only a trace of snow so far of the 23-24 season (as of 11/28).

Only 0.27" of rain to kick off the month. A day of suicide weather ahead tomorrow.

3 hours ago, stormy said:

18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days.   Beyond that is fantasy-land.

December 2014 says hello

17 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

a few cold rain opportunities to open the month, not ideal but could be worse

A long overcast stretch to start the month

5 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

First half of December looks like a write off.  Tick Tock....

From the Tennessee Valley forum:

On 11/20/2023 at 5:08 PM, RogueWaves said:

Dec '14 incoming

Looks like December kicks off the way December 2014 started. December 2014 was not only the least snowiest December on record, but one of the cloudiest ones for many.

Got 0.31" of rain, 2nd highest daily rainfall for this month. Up to 1.41" for the month now.

3 hours ago, Baum said:

so we can skip the December thread this year?

Next month is shot

It's going to be one of those weeks that the sun will be in much shorter supply. The upcoming weekend doesn't look great, either. The only day we'll have any luck getting sun over the next several days will be Thanksgiving. Overall, a pretty dreary Thanksgiving week ahead, with a few days of rain and some days of suicide weather.

3 hours ago, Stebo said:

Looks like first flakes here on Halloween.

Bye-bye, Winter '23-'24

A couple days of dry weather ahead, but it's one that will be wasted today. One more consecutive day of overcast skies today. Only one day of improvement tomorrow. We're trying to push for a long crappy weekend ahead, at this rate.

Looks like it's going to be that kind of a week where we'll be lucky to have 1-2 days of sun at all, especially on Wednesday.

No first freeze in the foreseeable future. Next month, perhaps?

Have some suicide weather coming up over the next few days

Remnants from Ophelia look to be retrograding towards our region, making tomorrow a day for suicide weather. Sun's going to hard to come by for much of this week.

IND AFD:
 

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2023

A developing tropical low pressure system just southeast of the
Carolinas is forecast to move northward onshore later today. This
system should then slowly slide northward along the Atlantic
seaboard and slow down. As it does so, it will largely prevent
systems to our west from freely advancing eastward. As such,
subsidence between the two will lead to relatively quiet conditions
this weekend.

Surface flow will primarily be influenced by the tropical system
with surface winds out of the east or northeast beginning Saturday.
This should allow for some weak cold air advection leading to a
reduction in high temperatures through the period. Expect highs in
the mid 70s for most locations as opposed to the lower 80s we are
seeing today. Less-than-ideal radiative cooling conditions may help
moderate low temperatures a bit and limit morning fog potential.

Clouds begin to increase late Saturday and into Sunday as a west
coast trough ejects into the Plains. Most guidance stalls and
eventually breaks down the trough before it reaches Indiana.
However, guidance is trending in the direction of a weak cut-off low
developing from the dying trough and drifting eastward. Moisture
appears limited with continued east/northeasterly flow at the
surface, but enough forcing may be present for some isolated showers
or thundershowers. As such, slight chance PoPs are introduced from
Tuesday onward. Ensemble guidance is is better agreement with the
formation of the weak cut-off low than its subsequent evolution.
Forecast uncertainty therefore increases late in the week.

Despite differences in guidance regarding the departure of the
aforementioned upper-low...enough agreement exists for increased
confidence in quieter weather by Friday/next weekend.

Meanwhile, the ILN AFD:
 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Complex long-term period as the combination of the low pressure (TC
Ophelia) and weak upper-level disturbances to the west meander over
the Ohio Valley and surrounding regions through the entire period.
Zooming out and examining the longwave pattern over North America
reveals a longwave ridge axis extending well north over Hudson Bay
late this weekend into early next week. This is largely due to a
longwave trough becoming established over the northwest CONUS and
western Canada. While there are uncertainties in the exact location
of the feature, ensemble guidance (WPC clusters) are fairly
confident in a closed or cut-off low becoming established over the
region through midweek, before eventually evolving into a more
classic Rex Block pattern (Ridge to the north with low to the south)
by the end of the week.

Due to the general weakness of the overall pattern described above,
confidence is high that the Ohio Valley region will avoid widespread
hazardous weather through the period. However, it does not appear
the period will be rainfall free as has been the case for much of
September. After the remnants of TC Ophelia dissipates, the
breakdown of the circulation allows for the below normal PWAT
anomalies to be replaced by above normal values. The values are not
significantly high, but it does point to a likely day-to-day weather
change, especially through midweek. Conditions are expected to be
more cloudy, with occasional rain shower chances across the area.
Expect high temperatures to be limited into the 70s due to these
conditions.

The high confidence regarding the overall pattern doesn`t result in
high confidence for the daily rainfall forecast. This will be
largely dependent on the location of the closed/cut-off upper low
that eventually organized. At this time, the best chances are for
Wednesday and Thursday, with ensemble guidance in agreement of a
consolidated upper low in place. Over the next few days, the
evolution of the pattern will continue, with chance of rainfall
fluctuating up and down throughout much of next week.