Spartman

Rainfall is overperforming. Daily total so far is 0.93" as of 9am. Record is 2.20" in 1974. Might as well get at least 2 inches today.

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Another thing to watch that could throw a wrench into things is how early/late does this Niña peak? The Niña is expected to transition from an east based event to a modoki, if the Niña peaks early like the latest guidance has that would be bad news. However, if the guidance is jumping the gun a bit and that transition to a modoki event is delayed a couple of months, that could make a big difference for the first half of winter. Despite the latest guidance being a bit weaker with the Niña I’m not sold on that just yet, especially given how the subsurface looks. I still think it’s going to be a strong event with the more aggressive guidance ultimately being correct.

Or else, 2024-25 would end up as Neutral instead of a Niña.

Today turned out to be what seems to be the sunniest day for the month.

Time to stick a fork in May?

Might as well be in some kind of blocking pattern at this rate. Very few, if any, dry days to come by over the next couple of weeks. May 2003 all over again. May 2003 had a record 21 days with measurable rainfall.

6-10 day:

8-14 day:

16 hours ago, Chambana said:

Early taste of summer as temps have soared to 86 in the paign. Working on the pool today.

 

EDIT: 87

86 here.

A prolonged active stretch begins today, so the upcoming week will be a wash. 

Nothing today

Topped out at 84

This was the 2nd completely dry weekend for 2024.

29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First 80 degree day today.  

 

Same here

It looks like at least the first half of this month will be a washout. #april2011redux

1 minute ago, wiivile said:

That looks better than it has all week though...

White on that map JB posted actually represents completely overcast. Euro is caving to the GFS.

Euro according to JB:

9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm not trying to cast any aspersions. I felt kind of bad for the relentless ripping the NWS took on social media. 

This was always more of an event for Kentucky and only extreme SW Ohio. To be honest, West Virginia seems to have been hit harder than any other place, and there was little focus. Was it because all the "storm chasers" live in Central Ohio? They didn't want to "chase" into rougher Appalachian terrain?

Other than a few scary model runs on Mon morning, there shouldn't have been such cause for alarm in Central Ohio.

I'm not downplaying the damage that we've seen and the tornados that have occurred, but I'm being honest, the twitter feed acted like the tornadoes would be F4 stovepipes ripping through Central Ohio in a 1974-type outbreak. I think Monday April 1st was some of the most insane weather/storm chaser hype I've ever seen on social media. Maybe these kids were just so overeager to chase they inflated it in their own mind? 

 

NWS really got hijacked by trolls on social media over that.

TWC:

Accuweather:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/solar-eclipse-2024/total-solar-eclipse-cloud-forecast-where-will-clouds-spoil-the-show/1636042

NWS IND
 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

It is now about a week out from eclipse day and as stated in
previous iterations of this discussion, a few signals can be
deciphered from long range guidance.

As mentioned in the discussion above, a deepening/occluding low
pressure system is anticipated to develop over the eastern US. As
this low deepens, it should act to bottle up the upstream wave
pattern. This can be seen in guidance as a deepening trough over the
western US. It`s this trough that could be the determining factor as
to what kind of weather we see on Monday April 8th.

Taking a step back, global teleconnections show strongly negative
phases in both the NAO and AO. This means that the synoptic scale
will dictate our weather going forward, and with a very strong and
occluded low over the east coast...it is likely that the position
and longevity of this system will determine the evolution of the
west coast trough.

Latest ensemble guidance depicts both the eastern and western
troughs becoming highly amplified with an increasingly squeezed
ridge in between. A flow pattern similar to a classic omega block
looks to take shape by Friday. With strongly negative
teleconnections, a pattern featuring blocking is not a surprise.
Guidance begins to diverge over the weekend as models struggle to
depict how the aforementioned features interact within the bottled up
flow. Guidance typically struggles in blocking patterns, and can be
too fast with synoptic-scale features. This can be seen in recent
trends with today`s system that has been gradually shifting westward
with time.

It`s tough to downscale this pattern into a cloud cover forecast for
the 8th. The primary questions are how much does the occluded east
coast low affect the upstream pattern, and in what form the western
trough ejects eastward. As guidance comes into greater consensus,
the answers to these questions will likewise come into focus. Stay
tuned for further updates.

Might as well stick a fork in seeing the eclipse on Monday

00z GFS: 

2 hours ago, bowtie` said:

I thought that today was supposed to be damp in this area but around noon, we had a clearing here and full sunshine until almost sunset. A grand and glorious way to end the month here.

 

Only got 0.02" of rain tonight. This March ends up with below-normal rainfall for the month, but April looks to be a different story. Also a warm March, but not warm enough to be one of the top 10 warmest.

It'll be mild for the first couple of days before chilly temperatures return for the rest of the week, despite a wet start to the month. Other than that, it looks like a pretty dreary stretch until the pattern breaks.

Shades of '11