shaggy

I agree but the short term motion prior to any Fujiwara was also very wrong on those models. Nome of them has this thing stalled out in the southern Bahamas and near Cuba for 2-3 days straight

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one

Better spin looks north of the island to me. Might take a while for a center to settle and write could see some jumps and relocations

Would make sense there would be a weakness to 94ls east with 93L being so close. Think we would be having a different conversation with no 93 L in the picture

Wouldn't be surprised to see a burst of storms in the Carribbean and GOM this year as those waters have remained undisturbed and ready to blow up if something can form there.

Solid bout of RI for Chido in the SW Indian ocean. Very impressive cyclone https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=04S&product=ir

There's a small.village on the south end of a bay that is now in the western eyewall and will soon be in the eye. I'd bet they took a devastating storm surge. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=25W&product=vis_swir

You could fit the entire wind field of Oscar inside the eye of this one

On the coast of NC we had very little weather other than some rotating supercells. This is one I managed to catch about 2 miles from my house. Decent wall cloud and a solid funnel for a weak rotation. It tried hard to put one down but never did I don't think

Sure seems that's the best area of vorticity. It's young and still susceptible to center reformation. If this forms further east towards the cayman Islands we could see some model changes

Gefs trending towards euro/ukie/icon

Falling in better agreement with the euro

Gfs is on an island right now. Icon furthest east and strongest. At this point a blend of the ukie/euro/cmc/icon seems reasonable

It was first with the Texas landfall for Beryl

Hoping that's incorrect. It seems overzealous with that much deepening that close to land but it would be a long 2 days for me if it verified