Tekken_Guy

The GFS's big cutting down on the forecasts seems to say otherwise.

I think the NWS might be too bulish. Recent GFS indicates numbers might land closer to the 10-12 range.

I'm in western Essex County. Do you think we'll get to Jonas 2016 numbers here? Also high high are blackout risks in my part? The only large scale blackout I can recall from a snowstorm is October 2011.

I am not seeing any evidence of another cooldown next week.

Does that mean May is likely to be below normal, or possibly cooler than April?

I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll be warm again in Week 2 of May. If we’re lucky the pattern will break by next Thursday.

Yeah this is typical. Last year April 14 was almost a 90-degree day. Didn’t crack 80 again for a month, or even 75 for three weeks. Warm-ups this time of year are usually very fleeting. Cooldowns on the other hand generally last much longer.

Is it possible we fall slightly below the record of 2010?

As of right now, I’m sensing that we move out the BN range sometime around May 4-5.

The BN pattern in May could last like 3 days before shifting to more seasonal. I can’t see this holding for more than two weeks.

I think you got that backwards. Next week will be the big cooldown and it returns to normal as May arrives.

I'm starting to get the feeling we might not break the record for warmest April. Next week could shave 2-4 degrees off the average and tomorrow was supposed to provide a buffer.

Wasn't it supposed to hit 80 tomorrow?

We likely needed that warm day to lock in the warmest April record. Now there’s a very strong chance 2010 keeps it, especially if it stays below 60 for most of next week.