CCHurricane

Light snow down in Barnstable (Cape Cod)

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

MYV and ACK are always included when talking about the Cape, always where. By the way, I never gave any indications depending on which forecasters you watched at the time, how correct or incorrect they where in their forecast. Personally, I say the Mets where off and the Cape and joined in the fun of getting blasted. This was more like a 24 Hour storm for many. But down by the Cape it appeared that ocean effect snow formed off the Bay where for about 12 more hours snow fell. This may be why there is a difference in the totals. It appears some Coops counted the 24 hour storm as one separate piece and the lingering ocean effect as another separate piece while other spotters just lumped  together the two as one long 36 hour duration storm. That may be where the disconnect/misunderstanding may be.

Dangerous to lump in ACK with Cape Cod when it comes to winter weather. Proceed at your own peril!

19 minutes ago, Greg said:

 The rain lasted slightly longer that just a few minutes more like a good 30 minutes or so. Some of you seem to always increase the amounts with the retelling of that storm over time but with MYV and ACK at about 24". It's a general 24 - 30"+. Yes, I know Sagamore stated they got 36" but with Sandwich at 24" right next to it. So I guess to each his own.

I think we are splitting hairs, but to say 30 minutes of mixing (which I never observed in the mid-cape) met the criteria that was clearly being predicted is a stretch. Given it was a long duration 36 hour storm, 30 minutes of mixing vs. the predicated 50% storm duration is the opposite of "nailing" the forecast. If memory serves right ratios were also solid, and no where near the 8:1 or 10:1 one would expect if temps were as high as you believe they were.

Also I would consider the Cape a different region all together when compared to MV and ACK. That's why they call it Cape Cod & the Islands . I don't think those locations are relevant to the conversation given they are very much their own climates due the ocean, but if those spots did receive 24", there's no way the Cape received less given a gradient to 36 in the Plymouth area.

HRRR really cutting back QPF amounts this afternoon though, looks like SNE will be a pretty tough call.

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Not true exactly, it actually did for a very short period of time down by the Cape where Mish Michaels was reported in Falmouth. But after that, it was straight snow till the end. Boston proper was never forecast to turn to rain at any point.

Never intended to indicate that Boston was every predicted to changeover to rain. Was speaking specifically about the cape where nearly every met predicted 8-16 inches due to a firm changeover to rain. We ended up with 30-36 inches. Not sure whether a few minutes of mixing would qualify as confirmation given the wildly incorrect amounts.

Matt Noyes did the best if memory serves right. But anyways, off topic, back to this nice little storm!

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

2005 was actually better than 15 for Cape and south coast

Over 110". Both were great though

Historic January blizzard that dropped ~3 feet will always be one to remember and nearly impossible to top. I'll never forget how badly the Boston Mets busted, changeover to rain never happened and we just kept snowing.

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RPM for Jerry. 

While I appreciate the RPM runs, they appear to be out to lunch this winter. Perhaps I'm blinded by rose colored glasses, but I don't remember it having such a hard time with thermals and corresponding ratios quite like this winter.

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Big difference here. It must've been like 7 or 8:1. At least that's what my back thinks after doing the driveway

Yea, temps down on Cape never really dropped below 33/34 during the storm. Made it impossible to maintain strong ratios that may have existed aloft. 

1 minute ago, HalloweenGale said:

Shame. 5.5 here. We're almost done.

14" this season so far.

Nice storm! Upper Cape did well and had an extra hour or two under that band that just swung through. Near the canal could end up 8-10.

4 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

Any reports from ACK?

Based on reports out of Chatham, and a similar temp battle all storm, I can’t imagine they’ll end up with anything more than an inch or so of slush (if that).

Last burst down on Cape Cod

Should be an exciting few hours. 4PM to 6PM crush job for those near the canal was well forecasted by HRDPS / HRRR. 

Looking skyward here in Boston, MA

11 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Can someone post an email address or link I can send my photos to NWS?!

The NWS Boston Twitter account is probably your best bet!

Solid bands delivering down in Barnstable, MA (Cape Cod)

Heavier stuff moving in down south. The unknown is how rates will translate. 

12 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

Where on cape?

Barnstable 

Current conditions on the Cape

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I was really giddy reading the MESO discussion from the SPC.  I have not had one of those in my area in the last three plus seasons.

4PM to 6PM is where the Cape will get their best rates. HRDPS says it should be around 2” an hour.

Transitioning to snow in Barnstable down on Cape Cod.

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

My temp went from 27 to 34 in 3 hours.

31 to 40 down on Cape Cod in two hours 

Outside of the NAM, it seems that most meso / major models have significantly pulled back on QPF output. Baring an overnight shift, looks like 2-4 is more likely for Boston, with points south in the 3-6 range, and 4-8 from Plymouth, MA down through upper Cape Cod. Unfortunate given the potential, but at least we have few additional clippers to monitor over the next few days.

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

Anyone have ideas why the accumulations were so comparatively poor in Boston metro compared to places like Taunton?
Boston surface temps were 33-34F almost entire event, not so different.
Just slightly less intensity?

Would have to imagine proximity to the ocean & the influence of those easterly winds off of the water. If you were on the water all along the north/south shore you were toast.

Only took until 10PM for Boston snowfall to actually start accumulating. Too little too late I'm afraid.

Understanding how unlikely this EURO output is, we'd be looking at a 54 hour snowfall event for SE MASS.

First shot would be from 0z to 12z Tuesday, with a brief letup in precip intensity, and then a decent pickup with the north wind / ocean enhancement from 6z to 12z on Wednesday.

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Radar looks like garbage south of Block Island, but it also looks to be regenerating a little right at the coast... so maybe the "dry slot" will stay off shore... looks like sleet is moving into Westport/Dartmouth and areas east going towards the cape... seems like sleet line is having trouble getting west of that...

Sleet/mix confirmed via personal webcam on Cape Cod. Solid 5 inches for central Cape areas. Likely a bit more out to the canal and less to the outer Cape.