CCHurricane

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wtf

unfortunately for southern spots, those precip types are incorrect. Soundings indicate much warmer temps. 

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Nice move NW on GEFS.

Next week's threat on 12Z EURO goes POOF.

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

CT Rhode Island SE MA up to BOSTON. BUST.

Most people live here. OOPS. 

This is trending well into ratter already for these locations; not even considering the next two cutters. 

Good luck @40/70 Benchmark

Hopefully all these people haven't been paying attention...

Talk about being disingenuous with this graphic. Selecting "24 Hours" misses most of the snowfall that occurred with this event.

Despite personal biases and/or emotions, let's be accurate. 

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir.  

For southern New England coastline in particular, I feel like Euro and RGEM led the way with the right call that thermals would be too warm however.

US Mesos didn’t catch on until just before precip started falling that there would be prolonged precip issues for eastern and south eastern MA.

Mosaic approach always tough to piece together! 

12 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

still to come.. 

If BOS can sneak out a 4”, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

Finally snowing here in BOS. Hope this banding is maintained for the next few hours.

Pretty decent shift on the lower level temp profile for SE MA, particularly down near the cape.

About a 5° difference at the surface.

On 9/16/2023 at 8:11 AM, Bryan63 said:

A bit of a random question, but is there an easy site to pull a graph showing precipitation over a period? My friend is being sued by a neighbor who believes the work he did to his property is causing hers to flood when it rains. But I am almost positive last year was drier than this and hoping to find a chart/graph that helps to support it.

Let me know what specific time period you are looking for and I can pull something down from this resource. Great at creating precipitation over time graphs, historical perspectives, etc. Boston and Worcester hubs likely have the most accurate data historically, yet as an example:

• This summer (June-August) was our wettings summer since 1955
• June thru current day in September is 5th wettest all time. 

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ 

Getting the conversation back on topic...

18z GEFS actually shows an increased spread in LP track, with a southwest and northeast biased "stretch" around the mean. About half of the GEFS members are meaningfully closer to the eastern New England than the OP run.

GFS Ensemble Comparison

September 13th - 00z vs. 06z vs. 12z

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

0z EPS ticked west compared to 12z

Mean is spot on with EC, a bit west of GFS

Rare members making landfall into RI / southeast MA / outer Cape... would be bad scenario for Cape / Islands at least

For sure a jog west compared to 12z, yet backed off some of the 18z juice. Regardless, still a high number of ensemble members showing a rough time for Cape and Islands even if there is no "landfall". 

GFS Ensemble Comparison.

12z vs. 18z vs 00z

00z GFS has winds gusting at least +55mph out of the north throughout Cape Cod for over 24 hours. At it's peak gusting 75-90mph for +12 hours. Trying to find a trustworthy archive for wind data, but I would have to believe these would be the strongest prolonged sustained winds experienced since Bob in 1991. 

Toss in one of our wettest summers on record (using Boston data as proxy), full foliage, and a lack of meaningful pruning by mother nature in +30 years, and this would be a borderline disastrous outcome for north facing coastlines from Boston points south, and all of Cape Cod. 

55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

or Camille

Imagine the Hurricane of 38’ happening today!?

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later...  Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights.  Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots.

Meteorologically speaking, this will likely deliver a once in a lifetime event for the area. Almost 100 years since the last Category 2 made landfall in the area. From a relative perspective, and while you never wish for a major hurricane to impact people's lives, yet thankfully this event will occur across some of the least populated areas of Florida. 

Posted in the Tropical HQ thread:

-------

One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. 

Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls

• Hermine (2016) - Category 1
• Alma (1966) - Category 1 
• Unnamed (1941) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1935) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1899) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1882) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1880) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1873) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1867) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1852) - Category 2

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts?

Alma (1966) and the Unnamed Hurricane in 1886 are really the only two storms with a similar origin / track. Obvious not statistically significant, yet both storms only maintained or weakened upon their approach to the area, neither strengthened. 

The current climo is of course different than the past, particularly the extremely water temps, so we'll wait and see what happens with Idalia.

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Interesting from NWS Tallahassee.  Didn't realize a major had never entered that region before.

One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. 

Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls

• Hermine (2016) - Category 1
• Alma (1966) - Category 1 
• Unnamed (1941) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1935) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1899) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1886) - Category 2
• Unnamed (1882) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1880) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1873) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1867) - Category 1
• Unnamed (1852) - Category 2

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This statistical overview has to do with at or > hurricane declarations? 

Earlier/recently in this thread there was discussion elucidating that while hurricane "drought" is noted, the advent of TC with lesser intensity has improved over recent decades - since ~ 2000.

This was speculation, mind you - no declaration is being made. It's more of a curiosity where it seems so, and if so ... why.   Less hurricane in lieu of > frequency of forgettables.    Interesting if the number bear that out.

Correct, the statistical overview (chart) and first bullet point represents at least  Hurricane strength at impact.

Really interesting conversation either way, particularly related to memory and behavioral biases! 

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Bottom line..SNE is a very rare tropical hit zone. It’s not Zero obviously, but a quarter century plus between hits is common place. 

The recent 30 year period has definitely been frustrating, but the frequency of landfalling Hurricanes in New England is far more frequent than once every +25 years. Perhaps the recent 30 year period represents a structural shift due to climate, or maybe the 1850-2000 period was an anomaly in terms of being far higher than normal.

Regardless, the current drought between Hurricanes (32 years since Bob) represents the only time since 1850 that we've waited more than 25 years between landfalling hurricanes.

• Between 1850 and 2000 New England was impacted by 18 landfalling hurricanes (once every 8 years).
• Considering tropical systems more generally to include tropical storms alongside hurricanes, this balloons to 40 landfalling systems (once every 4 years). 

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Some of the most unique thunder I’ve ever heard rolling across Cape Cod. Sounds more like dynamite. No “crack” and lots of what I would describe as muffled rolling booms due to what I’m guessing is spotty precip echos between?

Interesting stuff.

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

Peepers are out, heard a bunch while I was out this evening.

Peepers out in full force down on Cape Cod.

Just now, SouthieWX said:

Currently getting moderate white rain along the Boston waterfront. From my vantage point it appears some slush is only just starting to accumulate on sidewalks. Roads are wet. 

And here I thought a conservative 2-4 call was right for Boston...looks like even that was optimistic.

Any Boston peeps on to share how this band is performing?

Wouldn’t shock me if this delivers a top 5 all time 24-hour snowfall here at Stratton.

River of moisture straight from the storm didn’t stop all day.

Doesn’t look like there’s a direct comparison within the xmACIS2 database, but +30” in less than 24 hours...this storm delivered the goods.

Any database that I may not be aware of?