CCHurricane

Just lost power here in Barnstable (Cape Cod)

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do like seeing that WCB stuff south of BID heading on a trajectory to get wrapped into the CCB over E MA and RI. 
 

Too bad we couldn’t get that stuff east of the Cape to wrap all the way back. 

That stuff just east of the Cape is so painfully close!

Off topic: is there any rhyme or reason for the file size limitation adjusting up and down?

First solid band approaching Cape Cod on radar.

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Regional radar looks extremely bullish to me. 

Agreed. We’ll have to wait and see whether the precip gets pulled east once the LP situation is resolved. 

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m thinking Boston gets around 40 or so. I believe the snow ratios are being underestimated, and will be 20:1 or 25:1 in that death band that’s going to set up somewhere in eastern mass, sit there and rotate. The dynamics in that early Jan storm? Amazing, but in this storm the dynamics are expected to be even stronger. We have frigid Canadian air clashing with warmer than average oceans, I saw that the contrast was something crazy like temps in 20s clashing with ocean temps near 80 down south. That is helping beef up the low to what will eventually be tropical storm strength (I do believe the low will deepen more than expected by the models, to the 950s rather than 960s). The low is also closing off and stalling, so we could see like 4-6 inches of snow an hour for like 6 straight hours under the death band. QPF maps won’t pick up on that.

Channeling your inner James, go wild!

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It would be really unusual for Harvey to honk 24+ and it fizzles.   Snow is slowly increasing in intensity and we’re still 6-8 hours from the goods.   

Euro shows no sign of fizzle thankfully. 1.6-1.8 QPF at current temps can certainly get to 24” with ratios likely to be far better than 10:1.

He would have been much better off simply putting 18-24+, rather than such a widespread +2 feet.

I know we’re in nowcast, but for what it’s worth, 00z with what looks to be a slight bump East in QPF output when compared to 12z.

1.2 inches of QPF for everyone east of southern NH, central MA, and through Central CT.

Ratios should have any trouble being 12-15:1, and Boston points south down to Cape Cod 18-24”.

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What town you staying 

Barnstable. Live look out into Nantucket Sound.

Just made the drive from Boston to Cape Cod, road conditions still in manageable shape. Snow steadily increased on the way down, with accumulation becoming noticeable on the ground around the Canal.

Accumulating on Cape Cod

Can someone comment as to the 18z Euro's expected peak wind gusts for Boston / Cape Cod?

Appreciate it! 

4 minutes ago, BostonWX said:

Peak panic now behind us? 10.1 and Kuchera euro maps

 

 

 

 

How do potential wind gusts look during the height of the storm? 

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Not sure how that reflects relative to 12z, but banding enhancement certainly looks to be appearing with that “bump” in precip field. 

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Yeah.  You can't blame them.  If this does end up going sideways, then someone needs to figure out how we can get these models to be more in the ballpark on this type of weather event in the future.  Yes, I know "these are tools and you need to know how to use them", but at the same time, I feel confident there's highly trained mets throwing shit in their offices wondering how the hell are they supposed to forecast with so many changes to the data 6-12 hours from when the storm is supposed to start based on location.  I can't begin to imagine the amount of data that I don't have access to that there is to analyze when this is your trained profession and job to do.

This isn't me melting - I think modeling is fascinating, and it's always interesting to me when they take a dump, especially very close in to an event.  This is probably why NWS has been trying to be conservative with forecasts while we have been following along here.

This is partially a commentary on the modern news cycle, the need to be first and gain eyes, and the ease at which model output has now become accessible.

In my opinion, even when there is model agreement prior, publicly making available snowfall amount forecasts or maps 18-24 hours prior to an event is irresponsible. We’ve seen time and again how things can shift, and even when Mets explicitly state this people often focus simply on the numbers. 

My two cents: There needs to be a step back to speaking in generalities and the impact, rather than the amount.

-Significant

-Moderate

-Low

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

12+ is still a lock for Boston but I'm not sure about 18+ anymore.

With ratios I think 18 is achievable. 15:1 will get them there based on most current QPF output.

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Babysteps with the goofus right up until go-time.

Precip sheild is definitely more developed west, but LP movement north looks accelerated and center looks like it is actually east? Dueling lows...

Odd run with almost two distinct precip fields, one for the LP that "loses" out, and than another one closer to the close as it takes over. 

Lost in all of this chaos is Cape Cod no longer being a solid position...gradient between 2 feet and not much looks to be ~25 miles. 

11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Did the NAM actually nail this one?

Just because you're (*the NAM, not you Phin!) is eventually right, doesn't mean that the last 9 times you were wrong should be ignored. The NAM being referenced outside of 24-48 hours should be banned from this forum.

Can anyone point to any mixing threat on the Upper/Middle Cape on the 18z Euro? Looking at 850mb temps on other runs, it looks like dynamic cooling will keep everywhere but maybe Nantucket and the outer Cape in the white.

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

The James storm. 

For James!!!

Waiting for the Kuchie Euro maps 

13 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

FWIW Bouchard did mention to not get caught up in the model mayhem. Taht said he is also dropping the chances for anyone to get 2'.  He also pushed the start of heavy snow back from earlier today.

 

No disrespect to Bouchard, but I've found him to be perennially under-appreciate snowfall totals.

He whiffed big earlier this year with our first storm here in Boston and I'll never forgive his 12-18 inches for Cape Cod in Jan 2005 blizzard. Ha!

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Just toss the runs that show solutions that people don't like.

If the NAM were showing a snowy solution people would be all over it. 

Sir, this is a Wendy’s. 

8 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

And snowmap.

Quite an odd looking map given projected QPF rates (by even the most conservative global models) and where temps are expected to be. Will be interesting to monitor how this changes. 

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2005 is a really hard hurdle to clear for the upper Cape/PYM area...they literally got 35-40" widespread there in that storm.

Very much agree. While unlikely, OES and high ratios could get them into the 30" ballpark according to the GFS. 

What a historic storm back in Jan 2005. My fondest memory was that as the storm was beginning, most TV Mets had rain and mixing for those across the Cape...never came!