CCHurricane

18 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Maybe @CCHurricane and I can catch a few OE streamers Sunday Night / Monday, per the hi-res stuff. Looks pretty light, but could be festive in spots. D-1"?

Looks like this started on the earlier side. Will be interested to see how these bands move across and set up here on the Cape.

Wellfleet and Yarmouth looks to be in a good spot at the moment. 

Tapped out between 2-2.5” here in Barnstable. Once we lost the heavy echos of the main precip field, the accumulating snow went with it. 

All things considered, an enjoyable event with an interesting snowfall distribution from Boston to Cape Cod.

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its snowing on Hyannis and  Nantucket but your raining?

Just crossed 2” here in Hyannis / Centerville

Has been snowing here on Cape Cod since 5PM, best flakes of the evening so far.

Can confirm. Just drove downtown BOS to split. Temp 31 -> 34, decent snow to rain.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This could be a heck of a bust for BOS down to interior SE MA. And I mean in a good way. Compared to the forecasts I saw.

Last night’s 00Z NAM from the top rope! A winter of positive busts, could you imagine?

20 minutes ago, Layman said:

There's a thread for that

 

Thanks, checked but didn't see that on the forum page.

Some nice snowfall here in Boston down to Weymouth. Is everyone just completely discounting the 12z NAM and this afternoon/evening threat?

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Need to see some other models supporting this closer late strengthening development.

Would be quite the shift just 18 hours out.

00z NAM turning back the clock a few days to show a nice moderate event tomorrow evening, with a Cape Cod jackpot if it can stay cold enough. Likely cut these numbers by 25-50%…but would be a beautiful and COLD weekend.

Here in Boston we are currently tracking for our "coldest" December since 2017. Zoom out a bit further however, and it just goes to show how the broader shift in climate is moving the goalposts as to what is perceived as being "cold". 

• 2000-2010: 6 of 10 years @ 35 degrees or colder
• 2010-2024: 2 of 14  years @ 35 degrees or colder

All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system.

Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. 

12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours. 

00z GFS coming in with a beast...splitting the uprights between Western Cuba and Cancun.

On 10/17/2024 at 2:58 PM, powderfreak said:

It was legit.  We got 14-15” in two days.  Settled to 12” on the ground.

awesome stuff, thanks for the confirm! Hopefully a sign of winter to come...

Mount Mansfield Snow Stake reporting 12 inches of snow? That can't be correct...is it?

Would be an a record high for this early in the year, dating back to 1954.

2 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

SRQ is still transmitting altimeter data, but nothing else. 
 

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KSRQ&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Looks like a few +100mph gusts may have caused issues.

St Pete new high gust to 91mph @ 10:15PM.

Did we lose the Sarasota Airport station? Looks like updates have ceased.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSRQ&hours=72

8 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

Fat lady hasn't sung yet on the surge in Tampa Bay.

Believe there’s some nuance to this data based on this gauge location. Looks to be exposed to a north wind. The three other Tampa Bay gauges all are running many feet BELOW normal, as the ocean has evacuated towards Tampa Bay’s mouth.

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

00Z Euro makes landfall at St. Pete Beach

Goalposts narrowing between Treasure Island & Longboat Key. Regardless of Milton's exact landfall location, impacts will be devastating, yet on a relative basis a St. Pete Beach landfall would be close to a worst case scenario... 

00z Hurricane Models at or just prior to landfall. Not nearly as much weakening as was previously modeled. 

HAFS-A/B take an E/ENE track from these points of reference. HWRF and HMON continue to put St. Pete (and the mouth of the Tampa Bay waterway) in the bullseye.

A narrowing of spread on the 00Z GEFS. 

A few members still north of Tampa, with a Venice outcome looking less likely. Goal posts look to be focusing around the Bradenton cluster. 

00Z GFS looks a bit quicker in terms of gaining latitude, yet doesn't look to translate to a further north landfall. Another Bradenton Beach landfall.

00Z ICON brought Tampa landfall back into play.

18Z GFS shifted slightly north, bringing a Tampa Bay mouth landfall back in to the picture.

7 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Andy Hazelton pointed out that yesterdays 12z HAFS-B model run has been incredibly accurate so far, and it depicts Milton going to 880 mb tonight. Could be an absolutely historic night and insane model verification. 

potentially more damaging than the pressure, would be the HAFS-A / HAFS-B / HWRF track, which continue to be on the northern side of the model suite. A Clearwater / Treasure Island vs. Bradenton landfall will make a significant difference those within the Tampa Bay waterways.