showmethesnow

You seem a little snarky today. More so then normal. Someone wake up on the wrong side of the bed?

Usual caveats aside (models flat out wrong, rushing the pattern, etc...) the models for the most part actually have the last week in February very much in play.

Maybe, maybe not. Models have a different feel then what we have seen all winter. Either way I have a plan B in place just in case. Going to take a 3/4 day gambling excursion for my B-Day sometime in the next 3 weeks or so. Depending on timing and where my best chances are will dictate where and when I take this trip. Right now I am waffling between the northern Poconos or Western MD. But seeing as I am starting to get a sneaky suspicion someone is going to get hammered in the next couple of weeks I might go a little bit farther afield to catch the action.

Seeing as I lost the house on my last gambling excursion that is about all I have. Now if I can just figure out where I left the game. Oh... that's right. I sold it for my housing. Who knew cardboard boxes could be so expensive.

Let's see where we sit in a week or so but I am getting the impression the models are starting to favor blocking up top and troughing in the east into March. And all sun angle arguments and melting blacktop aside most of our region can realistically expect seeing snow into mid March, possibly large amounts of it. Not saying that is the case here though.

I really wouldn't concern myself with the storm/timing it shows at this time. What is noteworthy about this frame is that it is just another example off the models starting to latch onto the idea of good blocking and lows being forced underneath and cutting off.

Is the fun just starting?

Dare I say it? I actually have some glimmers of optimism now sprouting up for the possibility of a late save to this winter. Might be too much to ask for an outcome close to our seasonal averages but maybe totals much closer to them then where we currently sit? But we have been down this road before so let's sit tight and see where things go. The models these last few days have made a strong move to a very workable look for us and it deals with what we are seeing particularly in the NAO domain and stretching down through Canada. If we can get some blocking there that can potentially offset a hostile PAC. If we can get a somewhat cooperative PAC then things could get interesting. Euro has been leading the pack as far as the blocking up top (always nice to have the King in your corner) and now we see the GEFS has potentially caved. Went from a +++++NAO just on yesterday's 00Z run to a neutral or even slightly negative -NAO over the last day of runs. GEPS is still showing a ++NAO but even with that there are strong indications that is caving as well. Now to a little lesser extent what we are seeing with the PAC as well as in the Western CONUS will also play into this. And even there we have seen incremental improvements over the last few days as well. GEFS is leading the pack in this regards. Moves to a really nice look in regards to the EPO, northern based PNA with a weakness under cutting and the extension of the pv migrating towards the Aleutians. Both the EPS and the GEPS have a good look as well but fall short of what we see on the GEFS as they are not as aggressive with the magnitude of the ridging and are generally slightly displaced westward. The one thing I really like that I am seeing on all three models is that we are not talking a static +PNA that is just sitting there doing its own thing. What we are seeing a pulsing PNA that is spiking every couple/few days and then waning. To me this is indicative of an active period of time with lows moving eastward and then amplifying in the East. Now where that amplification occurs is the hangup as I am sure most have taken note that that has been occurring mostly to our west this winter. That is hopefully where the blocking over top comes into play and forces the storm track eastward into a favorable locale for our region. There is one word of caution though, we do not want to see a strong dump of energy into the SW of which the models have been on again, off again over the last few days. We see that and we will be solely dependent on the blocking over top. Read into that statement, we will probably need timing and luck to score.

Just another op run at range but yeah it is nice to see cutoffs popping up on the east coast on the various runs. Euro actually has it cutting off and going negative tilt in a very good location for our region. Just missing in this case but we are parsing details at day 9/10. I would have really liked to have seen how the model handled the next 24 hours with that short wave dropping down behind it though. That could have been very interesting.

IDK. That look sort of has my interest.

Besides that I liked what I saw. Potential is starting to ramp up just beyond day 10 until we see that dump at the end. And like you said, EPS is getting more aggressive with the HL blocking which could potentially offset that dump.

Great idea. Oh wait... that only works if everyone ignores him and doesn't respond to his posts. I am not knocking your suggestion. It's just that on the rare occasions I have put someone on ignore it didn't mean squat because of all the responses to the said poster.

But it did go back to dumping fairly aggressively into the SW at the end of the extended. Had been moving away from that so I was somewhat disappointed to see that.

It just never ends. It goes on and on and on and on and on.....

Morbidly? Is that just a polite way of saying were all sick in the head? Have to agree with your assessment with a different pattern. Looking 10+ day has a different feel on the models then what we have seen so far this winter. Have been noticing this for a couple of days now on the runs and the overnight sort of cemented it in my mind. Haven't had a chance to check the 12z guidance so if that looks as if it is converting back to the same old crap then this post was never made. Or blame it on Ji hacking into my account. Whichever you prefer.

Not that it really means much, and it is weak at best, but nether the less it is moving towards phase 8/1 during the period I highlighted in this mornings post.

Looking at the runs over night gives the impression that 10+ day is up for grabs as to what to expect moving forward. Seeing some fairly significant differences between all three models (EPS, GEFS, GEPS) when it comes to the N Atl/NAO region and the PAC ridge flexing and PNA spikes. What we are seeing with the PAC ridging is differences in strength and placement as well as timing differences/longevity with when it rolls down stream spiking the PNA. In the N Atl/Nao region we are seeing a +++Nao on the GEPS , a +NAO on the GEFS and surprisingly enough a neutralish look on the EPS as we are seeing some height builds into the western NAO domain. Needless to say these differences are generally playing havoc with the long wave pattern/timing through the CONUS between the different models. However there is one notable exception. We are seeing all the models generally aligning up with a +PNA and a decently placed trough through the 12-14 day period before they once again go their separate ways. If I were a betting man this is probably where I would be placing my money on to score over the next 15 days (Actually don't mind the look on the EPS whatsoever especially if we can see some better height builds or even ridging through the western NAO domain). One last thing I will say, I get the general impression that the models may be keying on troughiness in the East as we move into March. But that may not be worth much as we have all seen how well they have handled the longer ranges this winter.

If you can make lemonade out of the lemons the models are throwing at us you're a better man then me. of course there was a moment while looking in the long range where I did go hmmmmmm but then I realized it was only gas.

You're just jealous that he is another weenie soul you will never get your hands on.

You do me proud, losetoa6. You do me proud.

Yep...euro shows all blue in the same areas that we talk about the ridge bridge smh Had some hopes for that Ridge Bridge to defray some of the suckage. But alas, that was just another pipe dream.

Not singling anyone out but coming in here anymore is like a... And for you youngsters that have no idea what I am talking about. broken record A person or thing that repeats itself over and over again. Likened to vinyl records that when severely scratched (i.e., "broken") can loop over the same recorded segment endlessly.I feel like a broken record having to tell you this each day, but please clean your room! Not singling anyone out but coming in here anymore is like a... And for you youngsters that have no idea what I am talking about. broken record A person or thing that repeats itself over and over again. Likened to vinyl records that when severely scratched (i.e., "broken") can loop over the same recorded segment endlessly.I feel like a broken record having to tell you this each day, but please clean your room! Not singling anyone out but coming in here anymore is like a... And for you youngsters that have no idea what I am talking about. broken record A person or thing that repeats itself over and over again. Likened to vinyl records that when severely scratched (i.e., "broken") can loop over the same recorded segment endlessly.I feel like a broken record having to tell you this each day, but please clean your room! Not singling anyone out but coming in here anymore is like a... And for you youngsters that have no idea what I am talking about. broken record A person or thing that repeats itself over and over again. Likened to vinyl records that when severely scratched (i.e., "broken") can loop over the same recorded segment endlessly.I feel like a broken record having to tell you this each day, but please clean your room! Not singling anyone out but coming in here anymore is like a... And for you youngsters that have no idea what I am talking about. broken record A person or thing that repeats itself over and over again. Likened to vinyl records that when severely scratched (i.e., "broken") can loop over the same recorded segment endlessly.I feel like a broken record having to tell you this each day, but please clean your room!

LOL. Yeah, threw me when I first moved up here as well. The best way I can explain it is a technically a property tax that specifically goes towards the State schools vs. your typical Real Estate taxes that you also receive. Takes a pretty big bite out of you. And yes, you continue paying even after you retire. No freebies there. What helps offset these taxes though are the fact that property values are much cheaper then what you see down through MD/VA and especially around DC.

Kinda have to agree with him. It has been rough sledding at times in there the last month are so where it was nigh on unreadable. You might not realize it when you are part of the conversation but for those of us that quite often can only jump on periodical it is very noticeable. I have also been part of the problem as well with some banter posts so I will take part of the blame. ***But in my defense after reading through the thread I quite often lost track of the fact it was the disco thread and not the banter thread. *** Now after dealing with this issue for the last several years I am pretty much done complaining. If this is what people want then let them have it. It's not really what I want so more then likely my absences from the thread will become more frequent and lengthier. I am sure most wouldn't miss me.