dseagull

20 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

No wind, but yeah, about the same size hail here. I heard it against my house and then opened up my front door (I just got home about 15min ago) and could actually see it, which is a first for me. 
 

Can’t get snow on NYE, but hail? Yeah, sure lol 

Honestly, I'm just glad I didn't get a dispatch to rescue a hammered boater by this time ...  (some years wind up having interesting endings.)

Let the deep freeze begin, so I can finally enjoy my 2 months off from 24/7 work

621 calls for service this year.  It's been a good one.   Have a few thousand pictures of weather events to sort through for my upcoming first publication.  

3 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Hailing. In West Babylon. Like, legit hail. 
 

LOL, how did the NWS not even issue a warning for this? Especially considering the time of year. 

Have some minor damage here on the coast of barnegat bay.   Was no joke.   About 90 seconds of heavy dime/nickle size stones.   

Now....

Then.....

Absolutely insane storm here on barnegat bay.  Worst storm since April 1st 2023 when I had to rescue stranded boaters before the line of tornadic storms.  

Absolutely crushed.  I'm amazed that I've now seen my two worst storms in the past decade on April 1 2023 and December 31 2024.  

Waretown, NJ.... strongest storm I have seen since April 1, 2023 

Absolutely insane that this is happening on the last day of the year in December.   I'm baffled, and half expecting someone to call me for a tow or boat salvage in the middle of it.  

Good grief. 

I asked my favorite A.I. program to give me an accurate forecast for the upcoming 3 weeks in regard to snow in the subforum.  

Its created a short video, where weenies were jumping from rooftops and bridges.  

I then asked A.I. to zoom in on the faces of said weenies.... I gasped... It was I.

11 minutes ago, EWR757 said:

Again, I'll disagree.  I work in the aviation business where weather observations and forecasts are legally binding.  They determine how much fuel needs to be on board, what contigency plans and airports must be available (if any), what airplane can land or fly a route, what type of airplane can't, etc.  

If aviation prepared for the worst, always...an airplane would never get off the ground.  Risk = 0% is unattainable.  

The big difference in my opinion, is that the decisions the aviation community makes are based on numerical data, a METAR, a TAF, dimensions of a SIGMET, a winds aloft forecast.  Then there are laws that govern the response after the data is received.  There isn't too much subjectivity.    And aviation is incredibly safe and it gets safer over time.

If the message was as the NHC forecast predicted...this will likely go south of TPA, we are forecasting a CAT 3 but that is on the highest end of the intensity guidance, and the hurricane force winds only extend outward of 30 miles from the center...I think many people would have behaved differently.  What they heard is that a CAT 5 is coming, Tampa will be destroyed and the western coastline of Florida will be redrawn forever.  It simply wasn't scientifically accurate or predicted.

Emergency planning has some politics involved and conflicts of interest, unfortunately.  Treating all citizens as equally capable is a mistake.  A Piper Cub and a Boeing 747 get effected by wind differently.  A 30 year old in a multi-million dollar house has less risk than a disabled elderly person in a multi-wide.  Broad, mandated evacuation orders (similar to what happened during COVID with broad lockdowns, etc.) have destructive economic and social implications.

I know a cancer patient to drove north of Orlando "to safety" and slept his car because there were no hotels.  His cancer treatment in Sarasota has been delayed by at least 3 weeks.  "Hope for the best"...whatever.

More science, less politics and ego.

Fair enough.  I agree with most of that.  Especially the politics and ego. 

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There was clearly no need for people on Treasure Island let’s say to prepare for the worst and evacuate. They should’ve just stayed home. We’ve never seen situations in the past where the official track could be off by 30 miles or the intensity forecast is off for any of a multitude of reasons. It was obvious 48 hours out that they and Tampa would be fine and the media/emergency officials were overhyping!!! 

That's not how risk assessment works in emergency planning.   The costs of making an incorrect call like that (in terms of human life,) are not a gamble any coordinator are going to be willing to take.  

These individuals are advised by the experts (who may suggest not ordering an evacuation,) but the meterorlogists do not have the final say.   There's a strict protocol that is adhered to, although it may vary from municipality to municipality or from county to county.  

Its easy for us to conclude that it was unnecessary or overhyped.   I won't argue with that.   But... you're only looking at it from a narrow perspective, and that's understandable.  So much more is involved, however. 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Turns out I was right that if Milton made landfall south of TB as a weakening hurricane, FL would do just fine...and they are. 

Maybe stop making everything a worst case scenario because 99% of the time it's not that. 

Sensationalism sells, especially on the heels of a highly publicized and terrible disaster just a week earlier. 

But "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" is always a good policy to live by.  Or the 7 Ps... "Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance," in that one should never let their guard down, especially regarding weather.  

In the end, people are going to do as they wish.  It's still a free country.  As a first responder, I can't emphasize how important it is to remain fluid, but at the same time direct with communication.  That's literally the most important part of emergency planning coordinator.  This only becomes convoluted when politics or sensationlism enter the equation.  

The windshield wiper approach simply doesn't work with the public.  Florida did a great job as a whole in terms of communicating with the public. 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

These winds are felt offshore where there is no friction. Maybe a very small area right on the beach did. 

Thanks.  I've always wondered about this.  I understand the philosophy and how the scientific means of measurement and classification process goes, but it seems imperfect with regard to how the public may perceive it.   Im also aware of plenty of storms that have verified. Some have greatly exceeded, leading to re-classification.  

Did any station verify 120mph sustained winds?  No buoys did.

Is this a common theme with most storms?

Not much terrain to impact structure significantly, even with a close pass.  Baring any dry air intrusion, which seems unlikely, the next 24 hours are going to be full of amazing satellite loops. 

Yucatan is going to get raked if this current motion doesn't correct to ENE.  Losing latitude still with every passing satellite shot. 

On 9/29/2024 at 12:57 AM, Jebman said:

There are sure a lot of people crying for help. Helene cut off many a community from help.

You guys are perfectly free to wish for Category 5 hurricanes.

But me, I am DONE with this stuff. I'm 60. I am getting seriously challenged from obsessing over walking most of my life. Walking is fine, but to idolize this like I did for 50 years, there are consequences. Serious consequences. My mom yells at me for being too slow. I see now my Dad was right, all those years. I always learn, THE HARD WAY, every time, in everything.

My heart BREAKS with deep sorrow as so many people are cut off. Many will be, for MONTHS to come, well into 2025!!!!!!!!

There may even be ANOTHER storm. We are going to be lucky just to survive to early December. There are probably going to be so many severe hurricanes that the entire Gulf Coast will have to be evacuated. Buda, Texas can't take another bad windstorm, we'd lose everything.

 

Huh? Lucky to survive until December?  Entire Gulf Coast evacuation?

Drama...  

17 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

thanks.. this livestream is ridiculous. They're also in Perrry

Brilliant... probably fun right up until Time of Death.  Legacy of being a future internet meme/gore video...smh

Just now, Amped said:

The eye went back to a circular shape.

The moment of landfall radar image will be one to remember.  Beautiful, yet terrifying. 

 Awesome storm to track, and I'm amazed at how well the mets took modeled data and formed their own consensus and stuck with it.  

If anyone wants an analog for a well-forecasted and quickly moving carribean gyre system, this is the one.   What I'd do to be a fly on the wall when forecasting began over 72 hours ago.  

937.7

Perry should be getting raked at max very soon.  

The eastern eyewall is backbulding and tightening towards a sustained Western wall.  There were 4 or 5 mesovortices at one point when the wobble stopped and the eye closed back up.  Absolutely insane approach dynamics.  Thank God the coastal population is minimal here.