dseagull

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Because the set up is incredibly fragile. 

A 1 hr difference in a vorticity is the entire ball game here for some folks. 

You are likely to see this bounce back W at 18z for the NAM. It is so incredibly delicate. 

Thanks.  I work in oceanic sciences and the same is true on a different spacial and temporal scale.

3 minutes ago, romba said:

Yup, the double barrel feature might be legit at this point.

 

Just not certain why they're sending more aircraft recon for tonight's 0Z runs so late in the game....

Because... the atmosphere and conditions are primed for extreme explosive growth over the next several hours.   This storm is likely to provide many surprises. (Both high and low busts in different regions) Many people are still working and may count the storm a bust if they see nothing when traveling home.  That is likely not to be the case... the models are pointless, mostly at this point... Real-time obs and data interpolation is.  What is scientifically gathered from this system is still useful in future events, even if it doesn't (it prob will) produce what you expect.  

Not trying to be rude.  That is the actual answer.  Research and data collection now, helps models and scientific interpolation and predictions later...

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That's such a classic and gorgeous look.  If this thing bombs out like the 2018 storm, the banding won't match those QPF maps, but there will be striations of jackpots. (Not just on the immediate coast.)  This looks really good.  

14 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

What time we expecting storm to start down the shore? 10pm?

Would be surprised if you dont begin to see the radar blossom from south to north and begin getting event precip by 730.  Atmosphere is juiced.  Water vapor, radar, and mesos need to be the go to from this point forward.

32/23 and cloudy on Barnegat Bay.  "Smells like snow."

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big west shift on the 3k Nam

Jersey Shore and LI Burial!

Not the biggest 3k fan, but the trend we wanted hasn't flipped. 

If some of these short-term models become high confidence,  NWS may want to begin changing their discussion drastically within the Blizzard Warning discussions.  

55 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The Nam was worth waking up for.  Amazing look.  Everything shifts. 962 off Atlantic City south of Block Island.  Good Lord.  

Super Bomb.  Been waiting for this one since 2010.  

Wow... what a horrible night of on and off sleep... happy to wake up to a blizzard warning for barnegat, nj...   this storm has been incredible to watch transform.   In 24 hours A LOT has changed.   Gotta charge all the cameras up and get the generators ready.  

I'd be thrilled with half that jackpot sitting over old barney and my house. 

Just now, Jt17 said:

It's hard to say - this is a very cold storm. We're used to mixing at the coast, etc. with our big storms. That ain't it this time.

Hope you haven't spoken too soon.  I don't see this tucking nearly close enough either though.  

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

probably not done trending

Smelling the rain, close?  

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

Ive said that multiple times and got bashed for it.. lol

And if this verifies, accurate measurements will be very difficult as usual with MECS in areas that get these forecasted winds.  (Good problem to have)

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Ahem 

Spot on with your thought on the earlier H5 depictions, if this were to verify.  Thanks for your explanation this afternoon.  

Just now, MANDA said:

Just shy of 2" liquid reaching CNJ coastal counties - around 1.80".

SO SO close to delivering the goods to N and W of I95 but not there.....yet?

 

Fellow weenies would be streaking through my neighborhood's 3-5 foot drifts if this came to fruition.  

Just now, keno19 said:

Montauk would get absolutely raked with insane winds for hours.

16 minutes ago, PuraVida said:

I know most are just snow weenies, but I also double as a wind weenie.

Anyone else excited about freight trains overhead?

Live for long duration coastal wind events.  They always intrigued more than tropical systems.  This wont be in my top 10 without big changes, but makes for a great storm.  Enjoy up your way. 

NWS hoisting warnings in NJ

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Don't look at the snow maps and banding. The location and strength of that low means more snow than what is show.

NW areas need to keep an eye too. 

 

Verbatim, if it begins bombing out at the benchmark or slightly inside, that precip field has to be a little underdone.  Fun run to see.  

Answers my question.  Thank you. 

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It just seemed like a bit of a sloppy evolution with multiple lows trying to consolidate when it was our turn at the table so to speak. Boston got the finished 7-course entree, we got the cooks trying to throw things on the plates. 

Thanks.  I guess my question was more about the surface depiction and how it doesnt match what you would expect based on the h5.  That's all due to chasing to the east?  

And wouldn't one expect the ingested previous data to play "catch" up on the next runs?  Thanks. 

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

I hate to use this, but, convection chasing. This closes, shunts east towards convection and recloses. Now, of course a sloppy phase can do this, however, the model verbatim looks to be chasing. That H5 should have buried NJ to N. England. 

Are the H5s just depicted poorly?  

Nothing to scoff at here.  Good storm on the cusp of MECS

Will the king be dethroned at season's end, and replaced with the goofus?

From a wind and coastal flooding perspective, this will be a fairly short duration event, but I prefer to hedge my bets on snow.  These coastals offer more than just snow to observe.  Should be nice to watch and post observations from the water.