dseagull

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

98F/DP 75F

I'll never complain about 33 & rain again.

Except when the rain/snow line is 5 miles to the north and its puking 3-4 inch/hr rates north of that line.

You wont complain, but rather cry. Lol

On 6/7/2025 at 11:46 AM, ChescoWx said:

We will all keep up the good fight by using actual scientific facts and data against what is the true source of perceived warming - man made climate data alterations being made to the factual raw data.

You will never convince cultists of anything, despite providing data and well-rounded and unbiased observations.   I admire your tenacity, in terms of using factual and logical arguments in questioning the absurdities within the climate catastrophe narrative.  

Good luck...  you are debating science with the same folks that decided that there are an untold number of genders.  Good grief...

Geological timescale is something that weak-minded individuals have difficulty with.  "The thirst for answers" will often create delusional mob mentality.   

On 5/28/2025 at 12:47 PM, bdgwx said:

Oh...got it...so the requirement is that you must prove it is wrong. That is convenient because even the most trivial analysis would prove some level of wrongness, but if you don't even make the attempt then you can always claim that you never proved it to be wrong. Brilliant!!

"Wrongness?"  I love lurking on this thread for nonsensical crud like this. 

I hope you were highly intoxicated when you posted this.  (And just incase you are mentally retarded, my sincere apologies.  I just assumed you were of sound mind.)

6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

How the hell is this a thunder storm warning? Looks like sprinkles to me?

Check again. Lol

9 hours ago, steve392 said:

So is this the new norm for our area, having constant wildfire alerts daily?? 

Nothing new about it.  The only thing that is relatively new is constant "in your face" media and social media.  

Research the 1963 pine barrens fires.  Research many of the other seasons with massive fires. The recent fire down here just has everyone on edge, and social media won't drop it. 

When you have droughts (1961-1966, 1998-2002, as examples,) all it takes is one idiot with a discarded cigarette, one arsonist, or one lightning strike as a catalyst for major fires.   Add in some wind, and voila.

Social media sometimes makes things seem unprecedented.... Don't fall for the nonsense.  This is nothing new.   Unfortunately, the new warning systems often act as alerts for arsonists to go out and wreak havoc (as mentioned in multiple state agency documents.)

Its about time to comb through some historical data and current teleconnections to see what the spring transition season may hold in store for us.  

Spring coastals are more impactful for shore communities than most pay attention to.  Cold and rainy springs (with wind on weekends) have an economic impact that goes unrecognized unless you live here or work in part of the economy that depends on "good-weather" weekends leading up to summer.  Another side hustle of mine is boat hauling to and from ramps and yards.   Despite the cold winter, I already have plenty of calls from folks looking to schedule launching their boats.   They always ask what i think would be the best day. 

My response is usually, "i don't have a crystal ball for a month out, but if you like to gamble, it's a fun game."   Not much snow down here on barnegat bay, and sadly I'm getting accustomed to the less snowy winters.  Would have loved 1 big KU event, but I'm not sure I'll be around for another 10-15 year snowy pattern again during my lifetime.   The cold didn't seem particularly brutal to me this year, but the duration was absolutely recognizable.   Hunting was stellar, especially with the drought.   

Now im ready for my nine months of 24/7 work... and thunderstorms.  It was April 1, 2023 when I had to rescue a stranded vessel with two crew under a tornado warning, which wound up only producing quarter size hail and some gusts to 65 in my exact location.  When you basically live on the water all summer, lightning begins to fascinate and scare the chit out of you at the same time.  I'm looking forward to getting back to my "office."

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

How's it do it?

 

The NAM gets the ULL further S and underneath the SFC LP latitude. That allows the ULL to drive up heights slightly and 'push' the SFC LP further N while tugging on it.

Oh, its doing LOTS OF TUGGING alright.  Lmao

22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I'm retired with no work season thank god, and I still hate that kinda weather. Messes up the fishing. Not that there's much to fish for anymore; really miss the old winter flounder runs, which used to be from Boston to Barnegat ( Barnegat Bay was their southern extent, many believe it was due to cedar but who knows ) I caught one in LI Sound last year porgy fishing; the kids on board had never seen one. Still see them offshore on wrecks, which is not my kinda fishing. I'm a bay rat.

The last good year for winter flounder here was quite a fluke (no pun intended.)  It was march of 2009.  Very strange, as all fish were in their traditional spots, and they were all tanks 2lbs and over.  Chumming while anchored wasn't even necessary, but i did it anyway with my corn and clam secret recipie.  I even used my plunger attached to a long pole (flounder pounder) to stir up the bottom.   When i tell you that we caught hundreds each day for two weeks, its not an exaggeration.   Very weird, like they showed up just so I could show people what it used to be like.  Didn't matter if you used mussel pieces or blood worms or sand worms.  It was like going back to the 70s. 

Like you, I now encounter them on wrecks while targeting seabass in the spring and summer.  They arent on our nearshore snags either.  This is all 120-180' plus on the 20 and 30 line.  Hundreds of theories on what changed their migration pattern, but we may never know.   I grew up setting fyke nets.   Overfishing doesn't seem to be the culprit responsible for their disappearance in the estuaries, though I'm sure it didnt help.  

My bride purchased a new trolling motor (spot lock) for my personal boat.  As much as I dislike the fact that anyone can just go buy one and quickly target tog, seabass, etc... with very little skill.... I am getting too old to be double anchoring regularly.  Took me many decades to master a skill that was essential, only to watch spot lock appear and give anyone an edge.  Needless to say, ill be out catching blackfish this spring after I'm tired of playing with the early resident stripers beginning in two weeks.  As soon as fluke begins, I'll be drifting the bay while on my work boat everyday.   Bluefin tuna has been off the charts in close in recent years, so that will take the place of everything for awhile... then weakfish will come after that. 

Im blessed to have such a great backyard.  Back to spending 12-16 hours a day outside.  I'll never fully retire, as what I do now is not work to me.  

1 minute ago, MorristownWx said:

I’d be thrilled if this was the case but looks like we have at least another week of cold temps 

Im patient.  What i would like to avoid is late winter/early spring coastals with rain.   Good for nothing in my life.  I'm a hige fan of drought conditions during my work season. 

As promised.... If it didn't come back by 12z today, I'd lead the charge off the cliff.   Adios, storm.   Bring on spring.  Work boats will be dropped back into the water slowly beginning next week, as seasonal maintenance is done.   Personal boats will be in by the ides of March.  

Goodbye underarmor, winter coats, gloves, and scotch. 

Hello shorts, flip flops, beautiful scenery, and beer.

Maybe next year

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People still tracking this?

Sure am.  Fully expect a coastal scraper to materialize.  Solid 2-4 NYC, 3-6 Long Island, Coastal NJ 2-6 from Asbury to IBSP.  4-8 from IBSP to ACY, 6-10 from ACY to Cape May.

Could see more, could see less.  Always worth tracking something that actually exists to track. 

Well, whole town on barnegat bay is without power.  My scanner is going nuts. Several pole fires and two sub station faults.   This is going to be a 2 or 3 day repair for parts of town I'm sure.   So happy I invested in a whole home generator.  

43 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Getting it now winds are insane

My whole town just lost power.  Two sub stations failed and we have several pole fires ongoing at the same time.  Unreal. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

hail here now on the south shore, this reminds me of New Years Eve but without thunder and lightning, just hail.

Wild squall just came through down here as well.  Easy 55-60mph gust and torrential rain.  Short lived. 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can the models just go up to 5 days and that's it ? They do a terrible job after that.  Usually when all the models agree a storm happens but I would have never thought this was going to happen.

But a storm still is happening.   Just not the way or in the same place as once modeled.   Still useful for advanced signaling, even if not accurate. 

But.... heartbreak will be real quite often.  At least the sub forum is acclimated to the pain. 

Just now, nycsnow said:

Big jump n/w on the ensembles 2 runs in a row 

Patience.  Approaching coastal scraper bomb territory already.  Wouldnt take much more than 75 miles to give everyone their largest totals of the season. 

Looking forward to the server getting bogged down tonight or tomorrow morning when the Euro shows something closer to yesterday's early runs. 

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Image

 

Take it and run with it.  

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Maybe a 2022 repeat. 24” at islip and like 6” in CP

You beat me to it.  I have so much video from that storm.  Incredible hit down here with that bomb.  Just wish it wasn't so fast. 

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

He’s a clown, can very much be right but nothing is sampled lol it can be 0 or double digits 

I have a lot of respect for the man, as he uses conventional wisdom/meteorology more than most these days.  He also admits when he blows a forecast. 

However... He is puting all his eggs in one basket with the kicker and the modeled positive, almost neutral tilt of the low.  My feeling is that he is reminding himself of the seasonal trends we have witnessed thus far, and weighing his forecast heavily on this.  Not necessarily a bad idea. I'd like to see where we stand tonight and tomorrow morning.  Not sure why the rush to put out "first calls" when you have established viewership.  

Seems like poorly managed risk/reward.  But what do I know... im just a boat captain.  Very interesting evolution to follow, regardless of outcome. 

14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Can I call it?

 

Storm Cancel.

Sure, call it.  Im not even sure what that means.  Does it change anything when one "calls it?"

You know damn well you'll continue looking at the models and/or checking this thread until Tuesday at the earliest.   Bunch of addicts looking for a fix, myself included. 

But sure.  "Call it"

54.2 on banegat bay. As the low pulls away, the wind has absolutely started to honk.  If the modeled wind gusts verify for tomorrow with frequent gusts at or above 60, there will be localized power issues with downed trees. 

7 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Oy this is terrible. What a crazy let down last 24 hours 

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

It’s over. Enjoy the long weekend, hopefully we start seeing models hop on some warmer weather. Only saving grace is we still have til Tom until it’s all sampled 

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl harbor?!?!

Joking aside, you kind of ruined your argument within your own statement.  Sampling isn't nearly done.  No cliff jumping yet.  

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

See what the other models do at 12Z first before saying everything is missing.....

...At least 12Z.  I'd say the 00z or even 12Z tomorrow.  I'd like to see how the energy that just came ashore is handled.   

Ill lead the way off the cliff to spring valhalla if it doesnt come back by then.   But im not paying much attention to the damn Icon. 

Euro 12z and 00z runs the next 18 hours should be telling.