dseagull

About .5-1 on barnegat bay.  Decent rates considering returns.  Streets are caving finally.   Should be a fun morning hunt, and roads will be manageable at 630AM.  Taking a walk with the hunting beast after i clean up my mess from steak and lobster dinner.  

Coming down moderately now barnegat  bay.  Roads just wet.  All other surfaces covered quickly 

Im declaring a new p-type with this report. 

35.4F

28.5 DP

67 RH

... sporadic "pixie graupel"

Central Barnegat Bay

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Know any areas I can catch some winter white perch?

Best spots down my way for true winter perch and not the spring breeder runs are along the mullica river and bass river.  Takes some poking around.  Grass shrimp for the win.

Should look a lot more wintry tomorrow! 

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And Pt Pleasant ain't in it....that's S Jersey. N Jersey starts at Elizabeth. Ask anyone in Elizabeth if Pt Pleasant is CNJ....Carteret is CNJ. Perth Amboy is  CNJ. Jackson always claims they are.....frankly IMO Sayreville is S Jersey:)

All depends on where you live or were raised.  Coming from Salem county, I feel like Pt. Pleasant may as well be NYC.  Always called my current home on central barnegat bay North Jersey. 

Geographically, your idea of south Jersey would be 75% of the land in NJ. 

2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Monmouth Ocean Mercer Middlesex counties have nothing in common with cape May or Bergen counties.  Don't do this.  Central NJ exists and we're getting snow this evening. That's what matters.    

Just stirring the pot.   Looking forward to it.  Hunting this morning and tomorrow morning.  Going to look quite different.  Dog will be in heaven tomorrow running the fields for birds.  

Anything above rt 40 in NJ is North Jersey.   Central Jersey is as real as the tooth fairy.  

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, the metro is a large region. “Northern crew” I think Sussex -> east across the LHV and into NYC metro areas of CT. That map as depicted was an improvement for CNJ.

It doesn’t help that nobody can agree on what constitutes NNJ, CNJ, and SNJ either . Truly one of the great debates of our time. 

Certainly is sir!  Lmao.  Can't believe i woke up to what my girl and I went to bed debating.   Again....

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Unfortunately just like 1955 through 1969 ended the KU run. The 2000 through 2018 KU run ended the same. 

I just hope it's not a 30-year drought like 1970 through 1999. 

There were five good above average snowfall seasons for Central Park during those 30 years and we've already seen one in 2020-21, so we should expect another four over the next 22 years give or take.

The 80s were tough.  I have a hard time reminding others in my family that despite the cold, we had very few big snows.  Having said that, we actually had true Alberta Clippers back then.  My nephew is currently doing a study on pattern changes that have led to the disappearance of frequent clippers. 

Some of those systems would give some surprises.  

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This looks like it's for both storms this week. Central Jersey's turn.

And I'll happily take it.  No work on Wednesday and hunting with my dog in snowcover is awesome.  

Really miss the big KUs of yesteryear.  

18 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The cult religion of Climate Change Alarmism is quickly being removed and modified on FEMA’s website. The page on “Climate Resilience” has been renamed “Future Conditions” The Biden era alarmist website read “Climate Change is the defining crisis of our time. From extreme heat, drought and wildfires to more severe coastal storms, sea level rise and inland flooding, the consequences of climate change are all around us”
The new scrubbed and corrected website now more accurately describes the true current state. “Disaster incidents are rising due to increased human vulnerability, exposure and a changing climate. From extreme heat, drought and wildfires to more severe coastal storms, sea level rise and inland flooding, the consequences are all around us. These challenges are further compounded by increased construction and population movement to vulnerable areas.”
It’s just so great to see the old junk science and climate alarmist garbage on our government websites being rightfully tossed in the trash! Great start with the new Administration!! Can’t wait to see what’s next!!

 

They overplayed their hand and people finally stood up and recognized the propaganda and motive behind the alarmist nonsense.   It's a beautiful thing.   We just don't want the pendulum to swing too far, lest it swing back even further. 

A nice return to reality indeed. 

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the greatest of human activities are the result of feelings pal.  Otherwise you wouldn't have genuises like Mozart and Leonardo Da Vinci.  You'd just have a bunch of mediocre calculator jockeys / accountants looking at lines on a chart and trying to figure out which line correlates to what outcome 2 weeks down the line when chaos is far more important than any correlation.

But you probably didn't even understand any of what that means.....

Facts don't care about your feelings.   Science doesn't care about your feelings. 

But... Tracking threats and developing an initial interest in the field of meteorology, learning to analyze the tools at hand, and then occasionally enjoying the outcome is fun.  Fun is a feeling, so I agree with you there.  ...pal

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Instead, it seems to me that biggest drivers of earth's climate, after carbon dioxide, are Milankovitch cycles. These can explain the relative warmth of the Holocene Thermal Maximum and can also explain the gradual cooling trend that has been ongoing for the past several thousand years. In the absence of warming, a new glacial period would likely naturally occur in thousands of years.

I think you and I may share very similar viewpoints.   For what it's worth, I have the opinion that both the interpretation of history and human psychology alike, play larger roles in the system at play than most people possess the capability of comprehending.  

19 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What I think is going on, and I don't say this lightly, is the climate has warmed so much already that typical weather events now seem unusual. Possibly even among people who accept the reality of global warming. I frequently see people claiming - without evidence, I might add - that global warming is actually leading to colder winter extremes, and wavier jet streams, and other similar nonsense. It's like these people have never looked at any historical weather records in their life. This is natural variability leading to regional cooling amidst a much, much warmer global climate. In colder past climates, there has been far colder weather. And snow was much more frequent along the Gulf of America (formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico) coast in the past than it is today.

Mob mentality, laziness, and social media retardation... Its the age we live in, rather than looking at actual records.   

Having said that, there is a rapidly growing segment of the population that have been inappropriately lumped in under the "denier" category.  I know this, because I am often categorized as such.  

I have always acknowledged the actual historical data, always noted that humans and industrialization do infact account for said anthropogenic climate change, and also see no harm in studying if/how we can slow our contribution to an ever-changing natural climate shift. 

Assuming all of this is true amongst this segment of the population, they cannot be called deniers of climate change, rather skeptics that we can significantly reverse-course without the result being far worse than the climate shift itself.   Those of us who either work in scientific fields or whom have done proper research in academia are not suggesting we turn a blind eye without taking action.  

I believe that the vast majority of actual "deniers" are the sheep of our planet.  The mob mentality is how they are wired, and they have a longing to belong to a group which has counter-ideologies, regardless of fact.  Those in the scientific community have a duty to approach this conundrum carefully, and not to politicize the issue.   That has become increased difficult in the bizarre divided world we now exist in.  

As I type this, Trump's DOGE is inside the walls of NOAA headquarters.  While they may state that they are there to reduce waste and compress the size and scope of of spending and mission, they are really just cleaning out counter-ideologies.   What they fail to see is that MOST of the scientific community is/was not always dishonest and attempting to push an agenda.  Yes, extremist views absolutely exist within the scientific community, and I admittedly disagree with many aspects of NOAA fisheries and climate science data.  This is the wrong way to go about the process of returning to sanity.  This will only hurt the scientific community and create further divide. 

I don't know how this ends, but this ideological blitzkrieg is good for no inhabitants of our country or the planet.  The pendulum is swinging wayyyy too fast, and wayyyy too far.  I say this as both a member of a scientific profession and as an independent with conservatives leanings.  We need to return to sanity and unity, or this doesn't end well.  

I didn't know where to post this, but I had to get it off my chest.  Had I chosen to accept a scholarship to Penn State many many years ago to pursue a career in meteorology or earth sciences, I may have been waking up in an even more unsettled mindframe this morning.  Pray (if its something you do,) that we don't wind up reversing course on scientific achievements and advancements.

On 1/22/2025 at 8:23 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

Merely for laughs and some conversation during my down season, with the work boats on the hard.  

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

Are we doomed? 

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Sign me up.  Nothing like coming back from equatorial 90 and humid to a blast of snow and true arctic temps.  

Let it be so. 

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

One thing I have to disagree with is the reflexive reach to climate change for every thing that doesn’t go the way someone prefers. Understand that I’m not denying it or playing it down or don’t think it’s impacting preferred outcomes. It’s like businesses blaming Covid for every issue they faced in the past five years; sure, it’s been an issue, but sometimes it’s just how it goes.


.

Well...  the suppression is definitely because of Covid.   We need to flatten the curve, just until the 20th.   

The 19th-21st shall deliver, and the weanies will rejoice.   Let it be so. 

Bring on the 1/20-1/21 threat.   

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Right. I’m not a meteorologist or scientist or engineer, but even in the most logic-driven occupations, people - who may not want to admit it - are driven by emotion and responses that they hope to find.

Just take a look at Covid five years on… many, many aspects of it were ideas driven by emotion or solutions that were hoped to work, and reasonings made verboten because they did not conform.

People don’t like to admit they’re wrong, or don’t like to concede a previous viewpoint could be wrong, or someone they disagree with or dislike had a valid point.

It’s a good point you make about just saying, what could go wrong? You want Solution A to occur, but what could make it become B or C? It’s not a character issue, just a valid question.


.

Well said. 

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Printing this run and shooting it when I go upstate this spring 

 ..And don't be drilling it with the .22

.45 or larger.   Preferably incendiary rounds out of a large caliber rifle.  

11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

What risk? I don’t understand this generation of people who cry and complain about everything and can’t take a joke. There is nothing wrong with “not knowing” or being “unsure”. At least it’s honest rather than these losers on YouTube and FB hyping a single model run to drum up viewers. I would repost that and let the haters be damned.


.

I did a poor job articulating my point.   What it comes down to is the fact that they are a tax-payer funded organization.  Id rather not see humor mixed within their social media posts, particularly when the vast majority of citizens cannot differentiate between humor and advisories.  

Simply my opinion.  I'm wrong a lot.  I guess I'm aging myself, but I'm a bit of a traditionalist, and miss the days of straight-forward relay of information from professionals (particularly tax payer funded agencies.)

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

The National Park Service account has become one of my favorites to follow. Perfect blend of humor but also informative at the same time. Many state accounts do the same thing (NJGov) is pretty hilarious too. 

NWS can do it too. Just need an equal blend of humor and legitimate info. 

Personally I think their post was perfectly fine. It gave me a good laugh. 

I hear ya.  I'm not trying to be a Debby downer.  I get the humor as well.  But the mere fact that you and I are participating on a weather forum would suggest we are able to interpret the post as humor.   The issue, is that the image may (will) be shared and then poorly interpreted by those who are unaware.  This has consequences .... (most which I find the humor in as well.  ...and lead to even better memes.)  

I'm the last person that you'll ever hear arguing for censorship.   They can post whatever they wish.  However, as a government organization, it would be prudent for them to find a more responsible way of messaging. 

Just my opinion.   We live in a slightly dumbed-down world.  Sadly, social media is more harmful than beneficial, despite the laughs that come from it.