Chinook

this is once again, close to my family (sort of)

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* Tornado Warning for...
  Marion County in north central Ohio...
  Western Morrow County in north central Ohio...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 355 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near La Rue, or 8 miles west of Marion, moving east at
  40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

The storm chasers have seen the tornado lift, I believe, by New London Iowa but could produce a new one.

It's by Houghton and Salem Iowa

Iowa city tornado warning

two non-confirmed tornado warnings in Iowa/Missouri (note: both storms are far from the radar)

this is kind of in the radar hole

continuing tornado warning at Winthrop, Iowa

We'll have to closely watch both convective lines for supercells and tornadoes, and wind gusts.

Sometimes the 2nd day of an expected 2-day tornado outbreak is much more interesting. Obviously we'll have storms going off in the Midwest tomorrow.

It's too capped in TX/OK.

zoom in on severe (and sub-severe,) storm reports near Washington DC

18 hours ago, Quincy said:

I’ve mostly stayed quiet on Monday because the models keep shifting. Just looking at the last few runs of the 3km NAM, now that it’s in range… the warm sector ahead of the dryline keeps narrowing, to a point now that the 48hr prog for 00z Tuesday looks bleak for pre-sunset convective initiation prospects. 

At this point, daytime initiation in Nebraska seems more plausible than OK/TX, closer to the surface low. 

Tuesday is also getting more intriguing, particularly around the lower Missouri Valley vicinity, but maybe around Arkansas too. The slower progression of the system seems to suggest Tuesday *might* be the main show. 

If trends have taught us anything, it’s that nothing is set in stone, especially several days out. Things may continue to change. 

By the way, last check for Monday is that 4/26/14 showed up as a top analog. 

That event featured isolated severe storms going up around 01-02z in far northwest Texas. The next day… that featured isolated intense (tornadic) supercells in Arkansas, as well as severe storms north into Missouri and Iowa. 

Take analogs with a grain of salt, because 4/14/12 was showing up for a while with Monday. 

4/14/12 was 12 years ago. I'd say that was one of the biggest outbreaks since 2011.

by the way: day-2 non-Midwest

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  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

   THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
   PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA

I didn't post much about the last few days because it was a messy system in Texas. Also note: nobody seems to care. Guess what. I'm not going to believe in a tornado outbreak until I see one. The SPC is overcooking everything. It looks like the GFS and ECMWF have a storm near Wichita Falls, Texas on Monday.

60 kt+ winds aloft where things could get going in Oklahoma on Monday night (03z)

dangerous tornado at Tampa

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* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Hillsborough County in west central Florida...

* Until 115 PM EDT.

* At 1256 PM EDT, a confirmed waterspout was located just offshore
  Tampa International Airport, or near Tampa, moving northeast at 35
  mph.

a tornado hit near the St. John's River and World Golf Village in northeast Florida

Non-confirmed tornado warning at the LA/TX border. It's next to Toledo Bend Reservoir, so it's near me, right?

There is a confirmed tornado warning near Jackson, MS. This area might be the middle of the tornado action tomorrow (Louisiana to Mississippi)

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

>80 dBZ with warned hailer E-ern Dallas County.

here it was

radar says this could be 4" hail near Memphis TN

The temperature dropped from 78 to 72 in northern Arkansas due to the lack of light, also, 82 to 77 at Little Rock

It worked out nicely here. I figured that I could not really avoid the cirrus clouds by driving a short distance or even a possibly long distance, so I stayed in town. The weird part is that the cirrus clouds were generally fine, but looked like dark storm clouds during totality.

Akron CO got to 72mph wind gusts, Sterling CO got to 70mph wind gusts

HRRR says the temperature will decrease from 66 to 63 for me during the eclipse.

Here's something intereting. There's a relative minimum of EF2+ tornadoes and total tornadoes in Missouri. On the third chart shown, I have chosen the wind probability climatology for June 24th. It is well known that June has the maximum number of wind reports of any month across the US. This chart shows the wind damage reports maximize at Kansas, also, what I'll call "Derecho Alley," from Iowa to Ohio. Also, the southern Appalachians have a maximum of wind reports. Thunderstorms are numerous in the southern Appalachians but sometimes there is not high deep-layer shear in summer. On the fourth chart you can see the hail over 1" maximizes in the central Plains, pretty much lines up with traditional tornado alley. The area with the maximum number of hail-days (of any hail size) is at Cheyenne, Wyoming to the Nebraska high plains and over to Goodland, Kansas (Not shown) Final map: total number of days of severe hail of over 1"

this might be getting worse for north central OH, better for Toledo. Last couple of NAM runs have varying cloud cover for NW Ohio. It's possible there could be a decrease in surface-based clouds(cumulus clouds) closer to totality due to lack of heating. I think this could make a difference for Indiana/Ohio and down to Arkansas but not for thicker cloud areas.

45 % humidity at the lower levels (OH/IN border) may help some cumulus clouds to form. The models have some upper level moisture, so that could be some cirrus clouds