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DocATL

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Everything posted by DocATL

  1. DocATL
    Going to need cross polar flow to get any real cold air here. Without that, there is no cold air source. Maybe that’s what the GFS is struggling with. .
  2. DocATL
    Probably nightmarishly wrong .
  3. DocATL
    The GFS operational model is so miserable bad compared to the ensemble. Run after run it’s lost. .
  4. DocATL
    If the suns out I couldn’t care less if it’s a blowtorch inferno. .
  5. DocATL
    Unless you enjoy frustrating yourself, just stick with ensemble models right now. .
  6. DocATL
    The operational models are always lousy with MJO driven pattern changes. .
  7. DocATL
    Seems like rocking more for the east coast than for the Midwest but we will get to seasonal Or even below normal cold. .
  8. DocATL
    Not sure I’ve seen convincing evidence that the 2nd half of February will be colder. Seems like a gambler’s fallacy to me. The end of the EPS and GFS are a problem because it’s always the end of the run that holds promise. .
  9. DocATL
    An annoyingly chilly spring awaits. I’ve got to say that for all the talk of winters here, my move from the southeast has been pretty smooth. Aside for about 10 days in the deep freezer it’s been pretty tolerable in the Midwest. .
  10. DocATL
    https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1752060570583322704?s=46&t=vaNz3X96rQKSXMNwtdXFsA .
  11. DocATL
    Minneapolis working towards a record for lowest snowfall. .
  12. DocATL
    Aside from a 10 day period of BN temps these firmly AN stretches just dominate. Not sure where things go after mid February but until then things are uneventful and mild. .
  13. DocATL
    Phase 8 in mid Feb should be interesting though. .
  14. DocATL
    I mean I think this is pretty well known and accepted. Not sure it portends anything for the entirety of February though. .
  15. DocATL
    Seems like a psychological problem. Rather than mocking him let’s get him some help. .
  16. DocATL
    How are your [emoji267] [emoji267] doing, chief? .
  17. DocATL
    Burner account for the dude who grows palm trees? .
  18. DocATL
    It’s all about the track of the low and its speed. Aside from the immediate lakefront, prolonged north easterly fetch would have made things interesting. .
  19. DocATL
    I’m not sure though because it really loses its punch pretty quickly on the backside. .
  20. DocATL
    Was hoping we would get some lake effect if winds were to come out of the northeast for any prolonged period. Looks like it rapidly shifts to the west northwest. [emoji2375] .
  21. DocATL
    An inch or two tops overnight. NWS says things dry out for most of the evening. .
  22. DocATL
    Up to 37° with rain picking up in Naperville. We are going to burn through this QPF. Never underestimate the power of advection. .
  23. DocATL
    Rain well north of Chicago now creeping towards the Wisconsin border. Lots of standing water now in Naperville. Definitely raises the concern for flash freezing as we get into tomorrow. A sheet of ice might be worse than a blizzard. .
  24. DocATL
    I’d expect the warnings to be lifted for the Chicago area this afternoon. .
  25. DocATL
    I fully agree. Much of Chicago metro Is done per the HRR. Looks like we get some wrap around overnight but the low rapidly lifts northeast by then. I’d guess maybe an inch of additional accumulation at most per the HRR. Looks like the NAM from 24 hours ago was spot on. .
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